Picking all 35 bowl games

Be the first of your friends to like it

Another bowl season is upon us, and it’s time for me to make my picks so I have a reason to watch a number of games I would otherwise not care about.

New Mexico Bowl – BYU vs UTEP
A disastrous start to the season for BYU was saved by winning five of six before nearly pulling off an upset at Utah.  The Cougars saved their season and are playing their best ball now, while UTEP is headed in the opposite direction.  The Miners lost five of six after starting 5-1.  The records are even, but these are not evenly matched teams.
BYU 45, UTEP 14

Humanitarian Bowl – Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Fresno State went 8-4 against a tough schedule that included Boise State, Nevada, Illinois, Ole Miss and Hawaii.  Unlike the Huskies, the Bulldogs are battle-tested.  Northern Illinois puts up a ton of points, but how they will do against a legitimate team remains to be seen.  The key for Fresno State will bed stopping NIU’s run attack.  Chad Spann averages 103 yards per gamed and has 20 touchdowns.
Fresno State 35, Northern Illinois 30

New Orleans Bowl – Troy vs Ohio
The Bobcats won seven of eight after starting 1-3 to earn this bid and put their 21st ranked defense up against Troy’s 25th ranked offense.  The Trojans love to pass the ball, leading to Corey Robinson’s 3,000+ yard season, but the main problem has been interceptions (15 in 12 games).  He can’t do that against Ohio’s defense and expect to win.
Ohio 24, Troy 20

St. Petersburg Bowl – Louisville vs Southern Mississippi
The Cardinals somehow got into a bowl game despite going 3-4 in the Big East, including a 26-0 shutout of Big East champion UConn. Southern Miss brings a high-flying offense averaging more than 200 rushing yards per gamed to Florida, but they will have to contend with Louisville’s 11th ranked defense.  This is a hard one to pick, but I’ll go with Louisville even though their schedule was soft.
Louisville 27, Southern Miss 24

Maaco Bowl – Boise State vs Utah
It’s amazing how far one can fall with one loss.  The Broncos went from likely Rose Bowl contenders to playing Dec. 22 because if two missed chip shot field goals.  Utah struggled down the stretch, losing to Notre Dame and nearly to BYU.  The Boise State defense won’t let this Utes offense budge, and the Broncos will score enough to win easily.
Boise State 37, Utah 9

Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego State vs Navy
For Navy, it’s going to bed run-run-run.  For San Diego State, expect pass-pass-pass.  The winner will be whichever defense can adjust and make the other offense get out of its comfort zone.  I think it will be easier for San Diego State to run than it will be for Navy to throw, so San Diego State, with a more difficult schedule, has the advantage.
San Diego State 20, Navy 14

Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii vs Tulsa
It’s always tough for the team that has to fly all the way out to Hawaii to play the Warriors, but this one looks to be especially tough on Tulsa for two reasons.  31 – Hawaii leads the nation in pass offense.  #2 – Tulsa can’t stop the pass (ranked 115th nationally).  If there is one thing the Golden Hurricane have going for them, it’s momentum.  They have won six straight, but it stops here.
Hawaii 43, Tulsa 36

Little Caesars Bowl – Florida International vs Toledo
There’s really not much to like about Toledo.  Their quarterback has more interceptions than touchdowns, and their leading rusher averages just 75 yards per game.  Florida International played a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule, and it paid off with a 6-2 Sun Belt record.  The Golden Panthers have two backs averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.  That’s the difference in this snoozer.
Florida International 13, Toledo 9

Independence Bowl – Air Force vs Georgia Tech
The top two rushing offenses in America clash in what promises to be one of the most exciting games on the bowl slate.  Both of these teams know how to defend the triple option since they do it every day in practice, but ironically, neither team has a great run defense.  The difference comes down to who can make plays on third and long.  Air Force’s pass offense sucks a little bit less.
Air Force 31, Georgia Tech 21

Champs Sports Bowl – West Virginia vs North Carolina State
A lot of people think West Virginia would have been the best Big East BCS representative.  As it is, they are stuck here and cannot take resurgent N.C. State lightly.  The Wolfpack’s Russell Wilson threw for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns this year but likely hasn’t seen a defense as good as the Mountaineers’ D.  Expect a low-scoring game with West Virginia making enough plays through the air to win.
West Virginia 24, North Carolina State 10

Insight Bowl – Missouri vs Iowa
Many in Iowa City are calling this season a disappointment following last year’s Orange Bowl championship, but the Hawkeyes have a chance to salvage the season against a very good Missouri team.  Iowa’s defense played well even in late season losses, and Kirk Ferentz will have the unit ready for Missouri’s four-headed running back monster. If Missouri wants to win, it will have to be through the air.
Iowa 33, Missouri 24

Military Bowl – East Carolina vs Maryland
These teams actually have two common opponents (Navy and N.C. State).  East Carolina’s defense is absolutely pathetic, as evident by the 76 points Navy put up in a route.  Maryland beat Navy and held the Midshipmen to 14 points.  The Pirates lost four of their final five while Maryland won four of its final six.  The game is being played in Washington D.C.  Anyone else seeing the trend here?
Maryland 49, East Carolina 20

Texas Bowl – Illinois vs Baylor
Two overachieving teams limp into Houston after not being picked bowl eligible before the season.  Illinois was thinking 9-3 with Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern and Fresno State as its final four, but finished just 1-3.  Baylor had the Big 12 South lead at 4-1 before losing its final three.  Robert Griffin should be able to make enough plays in this de facto home game.
Baylor 28, Illinois 22

Alamo Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Arizona
Both teams seem to have gotten the benefit of the doubt in the bowl selection process, despite Arizona finishing 0-4.  Oklahoma State brings the nation’s top offense to San Antonio, and that’s trouble for the wounded Wildcats, who gave up 40+ points against comparable offenses Stanford and Oregon.  The Cowboys’ defensive struggles will mean little if they can win this shootout.
Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 24

Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs SMU
For the first time ever, all three service academy schools are bowl eligible, so Army gets the game you know they’ll be excited for.  We know Army can run the ball, but on the other side, can their pass defense stop a very efficient Kyle Padron, who has thrown for more than 3,500 yards this season.  Army will put up a fight in its first bowl game since 1996, but SMU, playing in its home town of Dallas, will win.
SMU 30, Army 19

Pinstripe Bowl – Kansas State vs Syracuse
The first ever bowl game in Yankee Stadium will be the coldest bowl without a doubt.  The inaugural game features a contrast of styles.  Syracuse wins with tough defense, while Kansas State relies on its running game to win high-scoring games.  Four of Syracuse’s five losses came at home, which isn’t good considering this one is in the home state.  It’s a coin flip, but I’ll take Syracuse.  I’ll probably be wrong.
Syracuse 21, Kansas State 20

Music City Bowl – North Carolina vs Tennessee
As bad as the Volunteers were at times, it’s hard to think they are actually bowl eligible.  They very quietly won their final four games to get here at 6-6, though they didn’t play a team as good as UNC during that streak.  North Carolina could have been in a very different position if not for the early season slew of suspensions.  They are a better team now then they were at the start of the year.
North Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs Washington
The ‘Huskers blew the Big 12 Championship game for the second year in a row, and again find themselves in the Holiday Bowl against a weak opponent who they already beat by five touchdowns.  The rare rematch was not the Holiday Bowl’s choice, but it will be more of the same.  Nebraska racked up 383 rushing yards in the week three blowout, and they may get more in San Diego.
Nebraska 37, Washington 7

Meineke Car Care Bowl – South Florida vs Clemson
South Florida has all kinds of problems, starting with their anemic offense. B.J. Daniels has three more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9), and they can’t run the ball either.  Clemson has struggled offensively as well, but against a much tougher schedule, Kyle Parker and the Tigers have done enough to keep them in most games.  This will be a defensive struggle, and not a pretty one to watch.
Clemson 17, South Florida 6

Sun Bowl – Notre Dame vs Miami
The Sun Bowl gets very lucky.  With USC’s two-year bowl ban, the Sun gets the first choice of an at-large team, and Notre Dame is the obvious one.  With Miami struggling down the stretch, the ‘Canes fall into the Sun Bowl’s lap, creating a battle of program-rich powers with down seasons.  Notre Dame comes in hot, while Miami limps in, but I still think the Hurricanes are the better team.
Miami 35, Notre Dame 30

Liberty Bowl – Georgia vs UCF
On paper this may not look fair, but don’t pencil anything in just yet.  UCF won Conference USA with defense, holding nine f their 13 opponents under 20 points.  Georgia started 1-4 but went 5-2 after that, rolling along with an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of those seven games.  In fact, the Bulldogs have scored at least 41 in all six wins.  Offense prevails in this one.
Georgia 38, UCF 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl – South Carolina vs Florida State
The losers of their respective conference championships meet in Atlanta after bigger dreams were dashed not long ago. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to wipe away humiliation they suffered just two weeks ago when Auburn torched the in this same building.  Christian Ponder and the Seminoles will be able to score, but the inconsistent defense needs to keep South Carolina at bay.
Florida State 33, South Carolina 31

TicketCity Bowl – Northwestern vs Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have to be disappointed with their 7-5 season considering they hired Tommy Tuberville in the offseason to bring a defensive mindset to the program, as well as establish a balance between run and pass.  Instead, Texas Tech finished 114th in total defense and 81st in rushing offense.  Northwestern is becoming a bowl regular, but can they win one? They too have defensive issues.
Texas Tech 32, Northwestern 27

Outback Bowl – Florida vs Penn State
Urban Meyer will supposedly be coaching his final game Jan. 1.  We’ll see.  If he does leave for good, his last game could potentially be a win over the man with the most coaching wins – Joe Paterno.  Meyer’s defense is solid, but John Brantley is suspect, and Jeffrey Demps is having a down year.  Even so, emotions will be riding high in Meyer’s last game, and the Gators have home-field advantage.
Florida 20, Penn State 12

Capital One Bowl – Alabama vs Michigan State
Who would have thought Nick Saban’s team would finish fourth in their own division?  Better yet, who would have thought Michigan State would win 11 games?  The ‘Tide roll in with the nation’s sixth best defense and have faced Spartan-quality offenses before.  Michigan State’s defense will see one of its most dynamic offensive opponents of the season with Greg McElroy and Julio Jones.
Alabama 28, Michigan State 7

Gator Bowl – Mississippi State vs Michigan
Believe it or not, neither of these teams had any bad losses.  Mississippi State’s four losses came against SEC West opponents ranked in the top 25, while Michigan lost to three 11-1 teams, as well as Iowa and Penn State.  The Bulldogs held running quarterback Cam Newton to 70 rushing yards…not a bad total, in an early season loss.  They will have to deal with Denard Robinson this time.
Mississippi State 27, Michigan 20

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Middle Tennessee State vs Miami-Ohio
Both teams come in hot.  Miami-Ohio upset Northern Illinois to win the MAC, while Middle Tennessee won three straight to get bowl eligible.  However, this is the Redhawks’ game to lose.  The defense should be able to handle a Blue Raiders offense that doesn’t do much, and Thomas Merriweather could have a big day on the ground.  Miami-Ohio will make it six straight.
Miami-Ohio 35, Middle Tennessee State 14

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs Texas A&M
The Aggies finished 6-0 and landed here because of proximity.  LSU had a shot at the Sugar Bowl if not for a late season loss to Arkansas.  LSU has been all about defense and are doing it again this year despite facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.  You can bet they are looking forward to stopping Jerrod Johnson and an Aggie offense that was very good in the season’s second half.
LSU 27, Texas A&M 24

Compass Bowl – Pittsburgh vs Kentucky
Mike Hartline was the only thing keeping this game close.  He threw for 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns with only nine interceptions before being arrested, kicked off the team and effectively ending any hope Kentucky hd of keeping this game close.  The Panthers will get a big day from Dion Lewis against a soft UK rush defense, and Pitt should hold Kentucky’s offense in check without Hartline.
Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 10

Fight Hunger Bowl – Nevada vs Boston College
The Wolfpack may still have hangover worries because of the Boise State win, but Boston College is still one of the better teams they have played.  The interesting matchup here is Nevada’s 3rd ranked rush offense led by Vai Taua’s 120 yards per game against the top rush defense in the country.  For Nevada to be successful, they will have to stay balanced, which they can do against the Golden Eagles.
Nevada 27, Boston College 17

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU
This is the most difficult BCS game to pick, primarily because of what Wisconsin did offensively at the end of the year.  It’s scary to think the running game got better after John Clay got hurt, but that’s the truth.  The Badgers are in a rhythm right now, one that I can’t even see TCU breaking.  If TCU’s offense can move the ball, which I think they can, then it will be a fun game to watch.
Wisconsin 22, TCU 21

Fiesta Bowl – Connecticut vs Oklahoma
If you’re picking UConn, raise your hand.  If you’re raising your hand, stop lying.  Connecticut is one-dimensional on offense, though Oklahoma’s rush defense has been suspect.  Expect the Sooners to stack eight in the box and blitz a lot, forcing quick decisions from Zach Frazer.  If this game was played two weeks ago, Oklahoma wins.  But it’s in January.  I’m raising my hand.  Why not.
Connecticut 38, Oklahoma 35

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech
Remember when Virginia Tech lost to James Madison?  Me neither.  The Hokies have made everybody forget after winning 11 straight following an 0-2 start.  Stanford isn’t too shabby either.  It’s lone loss is to a team playing for a national title.  The Hokies have shown they can score, and Tyrod Taylor doesn’t make mistakes.  This should be another good one if both defenses come to play.
Virginia Tech 31, Stanford 24

Sugar Bowl – Ohio State vs Arkansas
A top 10 offense (Arkansas) vs a top 10 defense (Ohio State) is always a fun matchup.  Ohio State held a good Michigan offense to seven in the final game of the season.  Arkansas can score on good defenses though.  They put up 43 on Auburn, 41 on South Carolina and 31 on LSU.  I think Terrelle Pryor could have a big day against the Arkansas defense.  OSU plays in big games like this every year.
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 19

BCS National Championship – Auburn vs Oregon
The Ducks average better than 300 yards per game, while Auburn allows just 110.  Something has to give in what seems like an evenly matched national championship game.  Oregon’s weakness is its defensive front, which should allow Cam Newton time to do what he does.  However, no team is more dynamic or plays faster than the Ducks, which Auburn hasn’t seen.  Expect a shootout.
Oregon 45, Auburn 38

Conference records

ACC:  6-3
Big 12:  4-4
Big East:  5-1
Big Ten:  3-5
Conference USA:  1-5
Independents:  0-3
MAC:  2-2
Mountain West:  3-2
Pac 10:  1-3
SEC:  5-5
Sun Belt:  1-2
WAC:  4-0

Confidence

35)  Nebraska
34)  Pittsburgh
33)  Maryland
32)  Boise State
31)  Miami-Ohio
30)  BYU
29)  Alabama
28)  SMU
27)  West Virginia
26)  Oklahoma State
25)  Nevada
24)  Ohio State
23)  Clemson
22)  Air Force
21)  Iowa
20)  Ohio
19)  Hawaii
18)  Georgia
17)  Mississippi State
16)  San Diego State
15)  LSU
14)  Florida International
13)  Miami
12)  Baylor
11)  Fresno State
10)  Louisville
9)  Texas Tech
8)  Florida
7)  Florida State
6)  Virginia Tech
5)  Syracuse
4)  Oregon
3)  North Carolina
2)  Wisconsin
1)  Connecticut

BCS Bowl Projections – 11/26

Be the first of your friends to like it

Here are my updated BCS bowl game projections after the Boise State loss Friday:

BCS National Championship:  Oregon vs Auburn
Rose Bowl:  Wisconsin vs TCU
Fiesta Bowl:  Nebraska vs Connecticut
Orange Bowl:  Virginia Tech vs Stanford
Sugar Bowl:  LSU vs Ohio State

Here are the real BCS standings

Be the first of your friends to like it

There’s something special about college football Saturdays.  Every week can indeed change the season, as ESPN proclaims.  When I decided back in the summer that I was going to make a trip back to my alma mater to see old friends and watch my Missouri Tigers play Oklahoma in the Homecoming game, I certainly didn’t think both teams would be undefeated, and I never would have thought College Gameday would be in town.  Now both are a reality.  Yesterday’s euphoria of tweets and Facebook statuses was a great thing to see.  When I woke up this morning, it hadn’t changed.  There is still overwhelming excitement for what is now the Big 12′s game of the year to date.

But on to the task at hand.  The first official BCS rankings come out tonight.  That’s great if you want to see a bunch of coaches trump a bunch of computers and screw things up.  Here’s what the rankings should be when ESPN does the unveiling tonight:

1)  Oregon Ducks (6-0)
This is not a difficult decision coaches.  Oregon has played the most difficult schedule of all unbeatens, and has absolutely crippled opponents.  They are averaging 54 points per game and have not scored fewer than 42 in any game.

2)  TCU Horned Frogs (7-0)
TCU’s defense has been stifling.  They’ve allowed fewer points per game than any team in the country, and are beating up on everybody.  Andy Dalton has been huge, throwing for nearly 1,500 yards so far.  The Nov. 6 game at Utah is huge.

3)  Auburn Tigers (7-0)
Auburn can make a legitimate case for number two because of their schedule.  They already have wins against South Carolina, Arkansas and Clemson, though those were all at home.  They’ve won their two road games by three points each.

4)  Oklahoma Sooners (6-0)
There have been some close calls for the Sooners this year (Utah State, Air Force, Cincinnati, Texas), but Bob Stoops has won close games.  They’ve had a difficult schedule that only gets tougher with a road game at Missouri this week.

5)  Boise State Broncos (6-0)
The Broncos are going to need help.  Mathematically, there can be as many as five unbeatens after championship Saturday, and Boise would be fifth on the list because they don’t have a schedule.  Their biggest obstacle: the TCU/Utah winner.

6)  LSU Tigers (6-0)
Winning ugly seems to be the motto for this team.  Or maybe it’s winning lucky?  Either way, LSU is 7-0 in a difficult SEC.  The meat of their schedule hits this week with a trip to Auburn, followed by a visit from Alabama.  Arkansas is the last game.

7)  Utah Utes (6-0)
It has been a relatively easy road for the Utes so far, but they are taking care of business in a big way.  The last five games are tough, with road trips to Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State, and home games against TCU and BYU.

8)  Michigan State Spartans (7-0)
They obviously catch a huge break with no Buckeyes on the schedule.  The win over Wisconsin looks a lot better now, but the win over Michigan doesn’t.  All in all, it’s been an easy road for Sparty…until a trip to Iowa to end the month.

9)  Wisconsin Badgers (6-1)
Wisconsin finally got that program-changing victory.  The Badgers beat Ohio State to shake up the Big Ten.  If they go to Iowa City and win this week, they are a legit contender for a BCS game.  Their only loss is to undefeated Michigan State.

10)  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)
The loss to Wisconsin hurts, but Ohio State has been here before.  They lost to Illinois much later than this in 2007, then wound up playing in the title game when everyone else tanked.  They need a Michigan State loss and a win at Iowa.

11)  Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)
They looked sloppy again against Ole Miss but still came away with the win.  Wins against Penn State, Florida and Arkansas are all looking worse by the week, as is the loss to South Carolina.  Games against LSU and Auburn will decide the West.

12)  Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1)
The experience of Ricky Stanzi has made this a more dynamic offense in 2010.  The Hawkeyes have looked good on both sides of the ball since a loss at Arizona.  A lot stands in the way of a Big Ten title though starting with Wisconsin this week.

13)  Florida State Seminoles (6-1)
After a spanking at the hands of the Sooners, FSU has responded nicely with five straight wins and a 4-0 ACC start.  With a weak schedule that doesn’t include Virginia Tech, and the Florida game in Tallahassee, they could run the table.

14)  Arizona Wildcats (5-1)
Oregon State’s loss at Washington won’t do the ‘Cats any favors, but the win over Iowa is still a big one.  It’s a tough road for Arizona, especially without quarterback Nick Foles, but they are hopeful he’ll be back in time for a Nov. 26 trip to Eugene.

15)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0)
Yes, they’re 6-0, but how long will that really last?  They needed a late turnover to beat A&M at home, and they really haven’t played anyone outside of that.  They host Nebraska this week, and Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma will follow.

16)  Missouri Tigers (6-0)
Much like the Cowboys, Missouri hasn’t been tested yet.  Their defense ranks second in the country in points allowed, but it will be put to the test this week against a high-scoring Sooner offense.  After this is a trip to Nebraska.

17)  West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1)
Their only loss is a six point loss at undefeated LSU, and they have played a tougher schedule than most team on this list.  The problem is, while other teams have big games coming up, this team doesn’t.  Even with wins, they will likely slip.

18)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1)
Their nonconference schedule sucked, and they lost to an unranked (at the time) team at home.  Now Nebraska has to regroup for a big game in Stillwater, followed by a battle for the North crown with Missouri.  It’s not a fond Big 12 farewell.

19)  Stanford Cardinal (5-1)
Stanford football is back, no doubt.  But being spanked by Oregon and nearly losing to USC at home won’t go over well with voters or computers.  In a deep conference where every game is a threat, it will be hard for them to win it.

20)  Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2)
Arkansas is the best two-loss team in the country.  Losses to Alabama and Auburn are respectable, and they have wins over Texas A&M and Georgia.  Ryan Mallett is having a very good season, and they still play South Carolina and LSU.

21)  Texas Longhorns (4-2)
After an embarrassing loss to UCLA and a tough loss to Oklahoma, Texas responded by shutting down Nebraska in Lincoln.  Garrett Gilbert played mistake-free football in the win, which puts Texas back in the south hunt.

22)  South Carolina Gamecocks (4-2)
The letdown that many people predicted following a win against Alabama came earlier than the Gamecocks would have liked in a loss to Kentucky.  Still in the SEC East driver’s seat, South Carolina needs to beat Florida to win the division.

23)  Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
While other teams have slipped against weaker opponents, the Wildcats have not.  They responded to the Nebraska thrashing by destroying in-state rival Kansas.  The cupcake part of K-State’s schedule is over now with a trip to 5-2 Baylor next.

24)  Northwestern Wildcats (5-1)
They sit here for now because they only have one loss.  Whether or not they can keep themselves here remains to be seen.  They had a bye week this week to prepare for undefeated Michigan State.  Last year they beat then-undefeated Iowa.

25)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2)
After starting 0-2, all hope looked lost in Blacksburg.  Since then, the Hokies have won five straight and are unbeaten in the ACC.  The Orange Bowl is suddenly looking like a possibility again after losses to Boise State and James Madison.

Florida back to SEC penthouse

Be the first of your friends to like it

#7 Florida 31, #1 Alabama 27

#4 Oregon 40, #9 Stanford 26

#8 Oklahoma 30, #21 Texas 27

#24 Michigan State 41, #11 Wisconsin 30

#17 Iowa 27, #22 Penn State 13

UPSET SPECIAL:  UNLV 27, #25 Nevada 23

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  17-7
Upsets:  1-3

Any doubts about Tide silenced Saturday

Be the first of your friends to like it

Any lingering doubts about whether Alabama has a chance to repeat as national champions may have been silenced after last week’s 62-13 win over Duke.  But it was Duke, and this week is Arkansas, which may be the most surprising team to date only because I thought their offense was mediocre and their defense was terrible.  They are better on both sides of the ball than I thought, which is why Alabama’s victory today will be even more impressive.

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide 34, #10 Arkansas Razorbacks 21

#12 South Carolina Gamecocks 24, #17 Auburn Tigers 16

#15 LSU Tigers 35, #22 West Virginia Mountaineers 17

#3 Boise State Broncos 45, #24 Oregon State Beavers 23

#5 Oregon Ducks 40, Arizona State Sun Devils 20

UPSET SPECIAL:  California Golden Bears 31, #14 Arizona Wildcats 24

Last week:  5-1
Overall:  13-5
Upsets:  1-2

Ducks fly together to #1 ranking

Be the first of your friends to like it

Go ahead. Laugh.

I deserve it.

I’m the guy who said Oregon wouldn’t be the same team this year because of the losses of Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount. Oops.

I’m the guy who said New Mexico would come within a touchdown (31-24) of beating Oregon in Eugene (real final: 72-0). Oops.

Yes, I’m even the guy who criticized the offseason, saying they wouldn’t recover. Oops.

I’m also the guy who can admit when he’s wrong (though it doesn’t happen often).

I was wrong. Oregon is good. So good, in fact, that I can’t find a team better through two weeks. And the Ducks aren’t just thinking BCS. That was last year. This year, Oregon is thinking national championship.

Week 2 rankings:

1)  Oregon Ducks (2-0)
If you can find me a team that has played two more convincing games against quality competition, please come forward.  The Ducks beat a Mountain West team by 72, then went to Knoxville and won by five touchdowns.  That’s not normal.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
No Mark Ingram, no problem for the ‘Tide against JoePa.  Trent Richardson is not just Ingram’s replacement – he’s now a Heisman contender after his 144 rushing yards paced Alabama in a convincing win over the young Nittany Lions.

3)  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)
Against a Miami program that’s as good as its been since the ’03 Fiesta Bowl, Terrelle Pryor did just enough on offense to win the rematch.  Although he didn’t do much with his arm, Pryor’s 113 rushing yards kept the defense off the field.

4)  TCU Horned Frogs (2-0)
TCU overcame some mistakes to beat Oregon State in Dallas.  Last week, they were virtually perfect in a 62-7 slaughter of Tennessee Tech.  Six Horned Frogs saw the end zone.  Seven of the teams first eight games are in the state of Texas.

5)  Michigan Wolverines (2-0)
Before you start whining about how high they are, look at the schedule.  UConn is a good team, and that game wasn’t close.  Now look at the Notre Dame game.  Michigan came back to beat a likely nine-win team on the road.  Quality.

6)  Texas Longhorns (2-0)
Mack Brown might have the best defense in the country, but we already knew that.  This week, he let Garrett Gilbert throw more, and the first year starter rewarded his coach with 222 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers for the second straight game.

7)  Florida Gators (2-0)
The Gators overcame another slow start to blow by in-state rival South Florida.  Florida used big plays and five turnovers to set up 31 second half points and pull away in a game that featured no fumbled snaps after having eight the week before.

8)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0)
Nebraska’s 38 points against Idaho Saturday was deceiving.  The defense scored 14 of them and forced five takeaways, and the offense had trouble getting into a groove.  A road date with Washington Saturday is the Cornhuskers’ first real test.

9)  Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0)
The in-state rivalry with the Cyclones is always a fun matchup for the fans, but not for the players in the red and white.  Iowa dominated again Saturday behind 156 rush yards from Adam Robinson on just 14 carries.  Iowa ran it 50 times overall.

10)  Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)
The convincing win over Florida State probably proves the Utah State scare was a fluke.  Nevertheless, I can’t rank them higher until I see FSU-like performances every week.  Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns Saturday.

11)  Utah Utes (2-0)
The Utes backed up their overtime thriller over Pittsburgh with an impressive showing against UNLV.  Even though the offensive numbers were nearly identical, the Utah special teams forced the Rebels into too many mistakes.

12)  Arizona Wildcats (2-0)
Going to Toledo and winning by 39 was more impressive than beating the Citadel by 46, but the margins of victory and the dominance their defense has shown make it difficult to put them even this low.  The game of the week is in Tucson this week.

13)  Wisconsin Badgers (2-0)
After a good second half against UNLV, the Badgers looked extremely sluggish against San Jose State in the home opener.  John Clay was a workhorse once again, but the passing attack managed fewer than 200 yards.  Arizona State visits Saturday.

14)  LSU Tigers (2-0)
Find me another team that has two road wins over power conference opponents.  If you’re having trouble, that’s because there’s only one.  Les Miles is working his way off the hot seat with a hot start.  The defense held Vanderbilt to 135 total yards.

15)  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
They have one win, and it is against an 0-2 team that lost to an FCS team at home.  If the Broncos were to hang their hat on one win this year, Virginia Tech was going to have to be that win.  Now it’s not.  They are lucky to be in my top 15.

16)  Miami Hurricanes (1-1)
Miami is the best non-undefeated team in the country, but showed weaknesses against a very good Ohio State team.  After I praised Jacory Harris for the way he protects the ball in wins, he promptly threw four interceptions in the loss.

17)  South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)
South Carolina started its SEC season off with a bang in knocking off a ranked Bulldogs team in Columbia.  Defense was the story for offensive-minded Steve Spurrier, as his team held Georgia to 61 rush yards and 192 pass yards.

18)  Stanford Cardinal
Going into the Rose Bowl and winning isn’t easy, but Stanford made it look that way Saturday night.  Andrew Luck was not great but mistake-free, and the defense shut out UCLA and scored a TD in Stanford’s first road win over UCLA since 1996.

19)  Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0)
My skepticism is fading.  For now.  Ryan Mallett battled through a rough first have to complete 28 passes for 400 yards and lift Arkansas to a 24 point second half to pull away from Louisiana-Monroe.  Greg Childs had 148 yards and two TDs.

20)  Penn State Nittany Lions (1-1)
Saturday’s loss to Alabama was a classic example of inexperience showing its colors against a good team.  The young Nittany Lions were not as physical as the ‘Tide, and it showed.  Sophomore Kevin Newsome got to take a few snaps at the end.

21)  Auburn Tigers (2-0)
Auburn has been less than impressive in both games, but winning on the road in the SEC is tough, and Auburn passed test one with a win at Mississippi State.  Six Tigers combined for 190 rushing yards.  Clemson comes to town this week.

22)  California Golden Bears (2-0)
I probably should have the Bears higher after outscoring opponents a combined 105-10 the first two weeks.  Kevin Riley threw four touchdowns in the latest parade, this a 52-7 win over soon-to-be Pac 10 for Colorado.

23)  Air Force Falcons (2-0)
After crushing Northwestern State in week one, Air Force dominated a ranked BYU team in Falcon Stadium.  The Cougars never saw the endzone in the Mountain West’s first game.  The Falcons head to Norman for a battle with OU Saturday.

24)  West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0)
The Mountaineers escaped Marshall in overtime Friday in a game they probably should have lost.  Noel Devine rushed for 112 yards, and Geno Smith threw for 316 yards on 32 pass completions.  Maryland and LSU are on the schedule next.

25)  Houston Cougars (2-0)
Case Keenum is not on pace for another record-breaking season, but he’s lighting up the scoreboards again for the Cougars.  After leading Houston to 68 points in the opener, he put up 54 Saturday.  Houston makes a trip to the Rose Bowl next.

Miami makes statement in return to glory

It’s not that Miami has been bad since the 2003 national championship game.  It’s just that…well, okay.  They’ve been bad.  The horror that was the ’03 Fiesta Bowl will be on the minds of “Canes fans all over the country tomorrow when they step into the Shoe for the rematch with the team that took its national championship – Ohio State.  By game’s end, fans may have long forgotten about the game that got away seven years ago because they’ll be looking forward to a new game – the 2011 national championship.  Oh yea, that one will also be played in Arizona.  Let’s do this thing.

#12 Miami Hurricanes at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes
The way to beat Ohio State?  Don’t turn the ball over, and make Terrelle Pryor one-dimensional.  Jacory Harris does not turn it over.  He threw just three incomplete passes in a week one win against Florida A&M.  The defense allowed just 53 net rush yards, and in plays in which they stopped A&M for a loss, they racked up 81 yards the other way.  If their run defense is as good this time, Pryor will be forced to throw, and that’s a perfect recipe for success.
Miami 29, Ohio State 24

#18 Penn State Nittany Lions at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Mark Ingram is out, meaning another opportunity for Trent Richardson.  Alabama had no problems in game one, but they probably want a two-back tandem to deal with this Lion D.  They won’t get it, but it won’t matter.  A defensive struggle will consume the first half until Greg McElroy finds some holes in the second half.
Alabama 24, Penn State 9

#17 Florida State Seminoles at #10 Oklahoma Sooners
Brothers reunite as FSU offensive coordinator Mark Stoops meets OU head coach Bob in a showdown of top 20 teams that became very interesting after week one’s results.  Oklahoma blew a 21-0 lead and had to claw out a win against Utah State, while Christian Ponder began his Heisman chase by going 12-14 for 167 yards and four touchdowns in just one half.  Still, Oklahoma will get it together this week.
Oklahoma 33, Florida State 17

#22 Georgia Bulldogs at #24 South Carolina Gamecocks
It’s a battle for second place in the SEC East as the traditional SEC opener between the two heads to Columbia.  I’m still trying to figure out how South Carolina won by 28 with nearly identical stats in every category as Southern Miss.  Every category except red zone chances.  Georgia’s #4 ranked defense won’t be so generous.
Georgia 27, South Carolina 20

#7 Oregon at Tennessee
I was wrong about the Ducks.  Judging by the New Mexico game, it appears they have no weakness on offense or defense.  LaMichael James is back for a showdown with the Vols.  This offense appears to be on the right track, and I’m not going to cross them again until they give me reason to.  Nevertheless, it won’t be a 72 point win in Knoxville.
Oregon 34, Tennessee 16

UPSET SPECIAL – Kansas Jayhawks 26, #15 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 20
Turner Gill’s debut was a disaster.  A 6-3 loss to North Dakota State is embarrassing, but something tells me they’ll be ready for this one.  I don’t know why, and I’ll probably be laughed at later when Tech wins by 20, but Kansas has always had a respectable defense, and they can hang around if they figure out how to slow down Tech’s option.

Last Week:  4-2
Overall:  4-2
Upsets:  0-1

Broncos earn title spot, #1 ranking

After 15 hours of driving, a delayed flights , a missed connection, a hurricane, terrible airport food and cab trouble, I’m finally in a hotel room and begrudgingly hoping my travel troubles are through (knock on wood).  As tempting as it is to ram my head through this moldy hotel drywall or watch another Navy/Maryland fumblefest, I’ve decided that I owe it to you to keep to my promise and deliver my weekly rankings.

There’s no better place to start than with the weekend’s final game, which made every national title contender cringe.  Any program with a remote shot of making the BCS national championship took a huge hit Monday night when Kellen Moore took a BCS bombshell and dropped it perfectly into the hands of Austin Pettis in the closing moments against Virginia Tech.  That sealed a 33-30 victory and all but put the Broncos in the championship, leaving just one spot open for the rest of the nation to fight for.  With Boise State’s victory, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that a one-loss team will not play for the national championship this season.  That means Ohio State cannot afford its annual hiccup, and the Florida/Alabama loser Oct. 2 is thinking Sugar Bowl at best.

With droopy eyes and an exponential hatred for air transit, here are my rankings after week one:

1)  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
Who else do you put here?  The Broncos have the nation’s best win after downing Virginia Tech in the capital.  They also become the first team to clinch a spot in the championship game after the opening week.  Now, who will they play?

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
The defending champions rolled to a strong opening day win, and Trent Richardson did just fine filling in for the injured Mark Ingram.  As of now, Ingram is questionable for Saturday’s game against Penn State.  Early upset?

3)  Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
The Bucks crushed Marshall Thursday and immediately started talking about Miami, who they’ll play this weekend.  Terrelle Pryor had three touchdown passes in the tune-up win before the ‘Canes.  Will Pryor benefit from a phantom call?

4)  Oregon Ducks (1-0)
Remember when I said New Mexico would come close to pulling the upset?  Go ahead and laugh.  After Oregon’s 72-0 victory in which they gained 720 total yards, it’s clear the offense didn’t need Jeremiah Masoli or LaMichael James.  Rose Bowl?

5)  Texas Longhorns (1-0)
Garrett Gilbert played mistake-free football in his first start, and the unproven offense did enough to win Mack Brown’s first ever opener away from Austin.  The big burst came during a 24 point second quarter.  Who was the QB last year again?

6)  Florida Gators (1-0)
Lots of people are making a big deal about the botch snaps that led to eight fumbles, but my biggest concern is the 13 offensive yards they put up in the first half.  Should Tim Tebow say a prayer before game two?

7)  Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
A 59-6 win is impressive no matter who you play, especially considering Florida State never comes to play in week one.  Jimbo Fisher has brought a new attitude to Tallahassee, and it shows.  Can they beat the suddenly vulnerable Sooners?

8)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-0)
Yes, it was a complete mismatch, but part of playing these games is winning by the appropriate amount, and that’s what Bo Pelini’s squad did in a 49-10 route of Western Kentucky.  Will they demand to take their flag from all Big 12 stadiums?

9)  TCU Horned Frogs (1-0)
The Horned Frogs dominated every statistical category except the scoreboard.  A 30-21 game-not-as-close-as-score win made Andy Dalton the winningest QB in TCU history.  Will they play Boise State in a bowl game for the third straight year?

10)  Virginia Tech Hokies (0-1)
It’s clear Tyrod Tayler is a great quarterback, and Frank Beamer has a really good team.  The first quarter doomed the Hokies, and as predicted, defense is going to be the problem.  Can they run the table in the improved ACC?

11)  Miami Hurricanes (1-0)
After last year’s hot start, the ‘Canes are looking to repeat a spectacular September.  Jacory Harris tossed three touchdowns in a 45-0 win over Florida A&M Thursday.  Now it’s OSU.  Over/under on how many ’02 alums have called the team this week?

12)  Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
John Clay had 17 carries for 123 yards and two touchdowns as Wisconsin used a 24-0 third quarter to pull away from UNLV in Vegas.  Wisconsin always starts in the top 15.  Is this the year they finish there?

13)  Utah Utes (1-0)
Utah had a very good win over Pittsburgh Thursday night, and set themselves up nicely to make a run in the Mountain West.  DeVonte Christopher caught eight passes for 155 yards.  Utah should schedule home games every Thursday, right?

14)  Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
It’s hard to ignore Michigan because of all the national hype, but they sure did come to play Saturday against UConn.  Denard Robinson, the quarterback, looked more like a running back with 197 yards rushing.  Will they finally beat Ohio State?

15)  Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)
After a slow start, Rob Bolden and company got it rolling in the second half in a 44-14 win over Youngstown State.  The offense did struggle a bit with only 371 total yards, but I’m sure they will clean it up against Alabama Saturday, yea?

16)  Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0)
It wasn’t pretty for Iowa – Eastern Illinois had them outgained for a while in the first half – but the Hawkeyes used stifling defense to cruise 37-7.  Ricky Stanzi avoided an early injury.  When will Iowa’s two blocked field goals come this year?

17)  Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
Scary moments for the Sooners against the tough…Utah State?  That’s right.  Oklahoma nearly let another opener turn into a disaster when the Aggies bounced out of an early hole to make it a game.  Will they get stung by FSU this week?

18)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-0)
Guess who’s back with an even better running game?  Believe it or not, Georgia Tech looks like it might be even more explosive on the ground after Saturday’s 372 yard ground performance.  Will they defend their ACC crown?

19)  LSU Tigers (1-0)
I’m trying not to give the Tigers too much credit for a win over a second string roster, but it was a road game against a top 25 opponent, and LSU got it done.  Les Miles needed that win and now will likely start 5-0.  Is LSU back?

20)  Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0)
I don’t like this team as much as the writers do, but Ryan Mallett was very good and made an early case for SEC player of the year, completing 21 of 24 passes in a 41 point win.  Can they beat Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn in a row?

21)  BYU Cougars (1-0)
The Cougars used a come-from-behind effort to knock off Jake Locker and Washington Saturday.  The defense shut out Washington in the second half.  The big question – can BYU bring it every week as an independent?

22)  Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
Do-it-all quarterback Aaron Murray threw three touchdowns and added one on the ground to help Georgia slaughter Louisiana-Lafayette.  Things heat up fast with South Carolina up next.  How will the Bulldogs fare in the SEC East?

23)  West Virginia Mountaineers (1-0)
Noel Devine began his Heisman push with 11 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown against Coastal Carolina.  The Mountaineers have Maryland and LSU on the nonconference slate this season.  Will they win both?

24)  Arizona Wildcats (1-0)
The Wildcats, eager to avenge the Holiday Bowl disaster against Nebraska, came out smoking at Toledo with a 41-2 victory.  Nick Foles threw for 360 yards in the onslaught.  The Wildcats now have four straight home games.  Breakout year?

25)  Stanford Cardinal (1-0)
No Toby Gerhart, no problem for Stanford.  Andrew Luck didn’t need much luck in throwing four touchdowns and throwing Stanford past Sacramento State.  The Pac 10 season kicks off Saturday with UCLA.  Can they send the Bruins to 0-2?

Boise’s dream ends in week one

Alabama/Florida?  Eh, they’ll play again in December.  Texas/Oklahoma?  Eh, a loss by either side won’t kill its BCS chances.  The game of the year happens in week 1, when Boise State makes a trip across the country where the ACC hosts its annual Monday night opener.  Only this ACC team isn’t Miami or Florida State.  It’s Virginia Tech.  The game is in D.C. and is the first top 10 matchup of the season.  The winner?  Likely ranked in the top five come Tuesday.  The loser?  Kiss your national title hopes goodbye.

For Boise State, it’s a must-win.  This is the opportunity they have been waiting for since making a splash in 2007.  A top 10 team from a major conference finally put the Broncos on the schedule, and now it’s time for the blue and orange to prove themselves.  Boise is supposed to win this game.  They come in ranked number three with a potential Heisman candidate and loads of talent on both sides of the ball.  Cornerback Kyle Wilson is the only departing starter from last year’s Fiesta Bowl championship team.  This is technically a neutral site game, but its in the Hokies’ backyard.  Let’s kick off the season with week 1 picks.

#3 Boise State Broncos vs #10 Virginia Tech Hokies (Washington D.C.)
The Broncos are the team everybody is picking to win, but don’t forget about Frank Beamer’s loaded offense.  Tyrod Tayler is a multitool quarterback with senior leadership.  His crew has been working all offseason to do what TCU couldn’t in January – score on the Broncos.  It will happen just enough Monday night for the Hokies to end Boise’s title hopes.
Virginia Tech 26, Boise State 23

#21 LSU Tigers at #18 North Carolina Tar Heels
The story of this game is the 13 Tar Heels who are either suspended or ineligible for this game.  Butch Davis and company are probably wishing they had scheduled a cupcake for week one, but instead they get LSU.  Robert Quinn, Michael McAdoo, Kendric Burney, Charles Brown, Marvin Austin, Brian Gupton, Da’Norris Searcy, Jonathan Smith, Linwan Euwell and Deunta Williams make up nearly 50 percent of last season’s defensive production
LSU 24, North Carolina 17

#24 Oregon State Beavers vs #6 TCU Horned Frogs (Cowboy Stadium)
This stadium will be at least half empty, but don’t expect that to deter from a great game.  Last year’s opener in this stadium was the first major rumble of the season, as Sam Bradford got injured and Oklahoma began its downfall.  This year, TCU and its roaring defense storm into Dallas looking to take care of some unfinished business after last year’s Fiesta Bowl disaster.  New Beaver quarterback Ryan Katz is going to be good, but not in week one.  TCU will handle Oregon State.
TCU 35, Oregon State 17

#5 Texas Longhorns at Rice Owls
Give Texas credit for scheduling a home and home against a program as mediocre as Rice’s.  The ‘Horns are going to win this game, but it will be good for new quarterback Garrett Gilbert to get an early season road test against a crowd that will be out in full force hoping for the monumental upset.  Rice’s best chance to stay close is to blitz early and often to force Gilbert to make mistakes, something Alabama did not do in the second half of the title game last year.
Texas 38, Rice 14

New Mexico Lobos at #11 Oregon Ducks
This game makes the list for two reasons.  First, week one usually features ranked teams vs little sisters of the poor, and second, I think Oregon is way overranked.  Losing quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to Mississippi and LeMarcus Blount to the Tennessee Titans hurts this offense.  With all the off-field problems they had in the summer, I don’t think they are going to defend their Pac 10 title.  New Mexico will pull a near upset here.
Oregon 31, New Mexico 24

UPSET SPECIAL – UNLV Rebels 27, #12 Wisconsin Badgers 24
As you know if you’ve read this in the past, an upset cannot be a ranked team beating another ranked team.  UNLV has the best chance of all unranked teams to knock off a ranked foe this weekend.  Fresno State nearly did the same to Wisconsin two years ago in the desert.

Preseason college football bowl picks

The college football season begins tomorrow, and while Thursday can’t come fast enough for many players, coaches and fans, much of the country is wait because…well…I haven’t made my predictions yet.

Here they are.  The BCS games at least.

There is no tournament as you know, and that’s just fine.  Eyeballs are still on the screen, money is still flowing in and teams are still jumping conferences in search of that extra dollar.  The final season pre-realignment should be a dandy.

BCS National Championship
Florida (13-0) vs Oklahoma (13-0)

Are these the two most talented teams in the country?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Only time will tell.  Florida’s passing game is its biggest question mark.  Besides the obvious loss of Tim Tebow, the Gators return only one starting receiver from its 2010 Sugar Bowl championship team (Deonte Thompson), but a lot of unproven talent led by Carl Moore and Chris Rainey.  Florida’s schedule shapes up nicely.  They play just three games outside the state, two of which should be sleepers.  The game everybody is talking about is the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and by that point, Urban Meyer will have figured out a way to use his dynamic running back tandem and throw the ball effectively.  Alabama lost 13 defensive players to the draft, and has always been pretty vanilla offensively.  Florida is faster and more talented, and they will beat the Tide twice this year to reach the championship game 13-0.

Oklahoma knows it will likely have to run the table to get back to the championship game.  Landry Jones is back after playing nearly a full season filling in for the injured Sam Bradford.  Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray return to help an offense that should expect to show flashes of 2009 when they put up five straight 60+ point games.  The defense has just five returning starters.  If they fail to make it back to this game, it won’t be because they didn’t score enough points.  The non-conference schedule is difficult, but the Sooners should take care of Florida State in Norman, and should finish nonconference play without a blemish if they don’t overlook a trip to Cincinnati.  The game everybody wants to see is the Red River Shootout.  Spoiler alert: don’t bet on Texas.  On the same day Florida soars by Alabama, Oklahoma will do the same to Texas.  Last year Bradford got hurt in the first quarter, and the Sooners nearly won the game anyway.  This time Texas is the team without its Heisman candidate.  With a more experienced Jones running the show, Bob Stoops will find ways to score on a good Texas defense.  After that, the Sooners should roll through the rest of the schedule until they meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.  Something tells me Oklahoma won’t want Nebraska walking away with the final league championship game banner before bolting for the Big Ten.

Rose Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs Oregon State (8-4)

The Buckeyes have become a BCS staple, and that won’t change this season.  Terrelle Pryor is a preseason Heisman pick, and the Buckeyes return 10 starters on offense.  The experience should help make the offense better, especially the 106th ranked passing attack.  Defensively, don’t expect Ohio State to fall off.  Led by All American defensive end Cameron Heyward, Ohio State will be making life miserable for Big Ten opponents again.  I’m picking them to lose either at Wisconsin or at Iowa, but the slip shouldn’t keep them from another Big Ten championship and another Rose Bowl appearance.

The Oregon State pick may surprise you.  It may surprise Dennis Dodd too, who has the Beavers eighth in his preseason standings.  Honestly, the most talented team in the conference cannot play in this game, which is why I’m picking the team I think will finish second.  This race is going to be tight all year, and as we learned last year, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between one and eight.  Jacquizz and James Rodgers are outstanding playmakers who will make life much easier for first year starter Ryan Katz.  The defense will be solid with nine returning starters, as long as they can stop the pass.  Oregon State has a brutal schedule.  They are the only team in the country to play all 12 games against either BCS opponents or teams that made BCS bowl games in 2010.  They go to TCU and Boise State before Pac 10 play begins, and while they will likely lose both, they will be battle tested before conference play.  They have USC and Oregon at home, and without Jeremiah Masoli and all the offseason problems the Ducks had, I think the Beavers will take the Civil War.  It will be a 7-2 finish for Oregon State, which will be good enough to finish ahead of the eight teams they need to in order to make this game.

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)

The Hokies get the first chance of any team to really put its mark on 2010 when it opens in the nation’s capital against Boise State.  After that, it’s a coin toss for Frank Beamer’s squad as it plays out the ACC schedule that has been as predictable as a Toyota brake or a Pittsburgh Pirate bullpen outing.  The offense, yes offense, will be the ones carrying this team. Beamer will have to get used to pitch and catch style football with Ryan Williams and a healthy Darren Evans in the backfield.  Tyrod Taylor is a senior now with plenty of experience and a plethora of receivers to throw to.  The defense may be shaky while the newcomers fill in, but Beamer is a defensive-minded coach, so don’t bet against his D.  I have the Hokies with two losses.  Boise State will not be one of them.

Pittsburgh may seem like the most obvious major college champion, and they are, but the question is where do they go?  The last Big East team to play in the Orange Bowl got waxed (by the Hokies), and the committee has thought twice about putting little sister in the game ever since.  A heisman-type running back leads an offense that may be better than what they showed against the Bearcats in the regular season finale.  The defense returns six, but the suspect unit could pose problems against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Miami and Utah.  Dave Wannstedt’s crew is itching for a BCS berth after coming up just short last year, and they will get it.  There are four games to look out for, and they will lose two of them: at Utah, Miami, at Notre Dame, at Cincinnati.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (11-2) vs Boise State (11-1)

The Sugar Bowl’s replacement pick will be Alabama, who will be happy to see Urban Meyer’s Gators gone after Florida trucks them in Atlanta in December.  Alabama will have too hard a time replacing 13 defensive players to be the same type of powerhouse it was in 2009.  More will be expected of Greg McElroy, who has yet to prove he can actually carry a team despite his career record.  Nevertheless, this is still a very good and very dangerous team.  The schedule is not all that difficult outside of Florida, so the Tide should be able to handle all non-Urban Meyer-coached teams pretty easily.  This may be deja vü – they were beaten by a mid-major in 2008.

That mid-major shouldn’t be considered a mid-major any longer.  Boise State is for real, and they will show it this season.  Only one, yes one, starter from either side of the ball is gone, and a top Heisman contender in Kellen Moore returns to lead the Broncos in one of the most anticipated seasons in school history.  An undefeated season may mean a trip to Glendale for the national championship game, but it won’t happen.  I have the Broncos losing to Virginia Tech in the opener at RFK.  Why?  Because Boise has the same team they had last year, and that team gave up way too many points in a very weak conference.  The Virginia Tech offense is experienced and lethal, which is why I think the Hokies will win in a shootout.  After the Monday night setback, Boise State will run the table to earn its third BCS trip in four years.

Fiesta Bowl
Texas (11-1) vs TCU (11-1)

If there was any positive during an otherwise disgusting national championship performance by the Longhorns, it was the second half play of now-starter Garrett Gilbert.  Although he is no McCoy, Gilbert’s gameday experience will help him.  The question is, will his offensive line?  Relatively unproven tackles will have to fend off quick defensive ends, and Gilbert may see his share of turf time.  The schedule is an interesting one, as Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders host the ‘Horns in week three.  Last time Texas visited Lubbock, Michael Crabtree whipped the Raider faithful into a frenzy.  Don’t think the Longhorns have short memories.  The Red River Shootout is always the game of the year in the conference, and this year’s game is no exception.  It’s the only game I have Texas losing, simply because Oklahoma is the only team that can shred an otherwise stellar secondary.  One other game to look out for – Texas travels to Lincoln Oct. 16 for a rematch with Nebraska.  After a bye, I like the ‘Horns.

TCU still has a bitter taste in its mouth after the offense failed to show up in this game last year.  The Fiesta Bowl committee will be hesitant to take them, but in the end won’t pass up the opportunity to match these Texas teams together in a game fans have wanted to see since TCU climbed into the national spotlight.  Andy Dalton returns with a number of 400 yard receivers to spread the ball around to.  Four offensive line starters return to help two new running backs get into the mix, and seven starters return on the defensive unit that was one of the best in the country.  TCU opens with pesky Oregon State in the Jerry Dome, then it’s a relatively light load until a Nov. 6 matchup at Utah.  That’s the only time the Horned Frogs will fall this season, leaving them out of the national championship picture but giving them their second straight BCS appearance.