Picking all 35 bowl games

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Another bowl season is upon us, and it’s time for me to make my picks so I have a reason to watch a number of games I would otherwise not care about.

New Mexico Bowl – BYU vs UTEP
A disastrous start to the season for BYU was saved by winning five of six before nearly pulling off an upset at Utah.  The Cougars saved their season and are playing their best ball now, while UTEP is headed in the opposite direction.  The Miners lost five of six after starting 5-1.  The records are even, but these are not evenly matched teams.
BYU 45, UTEP 14

Humanitarian Bowl – Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Fresno State went 8-4 against a tough schedule that included Boise State, Nevada, Illinois, Ole Miss and Hawaii.  Unlike the Huskies, the Bulldogs are battle-tested.  Northern Illinois puts up a ton of points, but how they will do against a legitimate team remains to be seen.  The key for Fresno State will bed stopping NIU’s run attack.  Chad Spann averages 103 yards per gamed and has 20 touchdowns.
Fresno State 35, Northern Illinois 30

New Orleans Bowl – Troy vs Ohio
The Bobcats won seven of eight after starting 1-3 to earn this bid and put their 21st ranked defense up against Troy’s 25th ranked offense.  The Trojans love to pass the ball, leading to Corey Robinson’s 3,000+ yard season, but the main problem has been interceptions (15 in 12 games).  He can’t do that against Ohio’s defense and expect to win.
Ohio 24, Troy 20

St. Petersburg Bowl – Louisville vs Southern Mississippi
The Cardinals somehow got into a bowl game despite going 3-4 in the Big East, including a 26-0 shutout of Big East champion UConn. Southern Miss brings a high-flying offense averaging more than 200 rushing yards per gamed to Florida, but they will have to contend with Louisville’s 11th ranked defense.  This is a hard one to pick, but I’ll go with Louisville even though their schedule was soft.
Louisville 27, Southern Miss 24

Maaco Bowl – Boise State vs Utah
It’s amazing how far one can fall with one loss.  The Broncos went from likely Rose Bowl contenders to playing Dec. 22 because if two missed chip shot field goals.  Utah struggled down the stretch, losing to Notre Dame and nearly to BYU.  The Boise State defense won’t let this Utes offense budge, and the Broncos will score enough to win easily.
Boise State 37, Utah 9

Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego State vs Navy
For Navy, it’s going to bed run-run-run.  For San Diego State, expect pass-pass-pass.  The winner will be whichever defense can adjust and make the other offense get out of its comfort zone.  I think it will be easier for San Diego State to run than it will be for Navy to throw, so San Diego State, with a more difficult schedule, has the advantage.
San Diego State 20, Navy 14

Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii vs Tulsa
It’s always tough for the team that has to fly all the way out to Hawaii to play the Warriors, but this one looks to be especially tough on Tulsa for two reasons.  31 – Hawaii leads the nation in pass offense.  #2 – Tulsa can’t stop the pass (ranked 115th nationally).  If there is one thing the Golden Hurricane have going for them, it’s momentum.  They have won six straight, but it stops here.
Hawaii 43, Tulsa 36

Little Caesars Bowl – Florida International vs Toledo
There’s really not much to like about Toledo.  Their quarterback has more interceptions than touchdowns, and their leading rusher averages just 75 yards per game.  Florida International played a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule, and it paid off with a 6-2 Sun Belt record.  The Golden Panthers have two backs averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.  That’s the difference in this snoozer.
Florida International 13, Toledo 9

Independence Bowl – Air Force vs Georgia Tech
The top two rushing offenses in America clash in what promises to be one of the most exciting games on the bowl slate.  Both of these teams know how to defend the triple option since they do it every day in practice, but ironically, neither team has a great run defense.  The difference comes down to who can make plays on third and long.  Air Force’s pass offense sucks a little bit less.
Air Force 31, Georgia Tech 21

Champs Sports Bowl – West Virginia vs North Carolina State
A lot of people think West Virginia would have been the best Big East BCS representative.  As it is, they are stuck here and cannot take resurgent N.C. State lightly.  The Wolfpack’s Russell Wilson threw for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns this year but likely hasn’t seen a defense as good as the Mountaineers’D.  Expect a low-scoring game with West Virginia making enough plays through the air to win.
West Virginia 24, North Carolina State 10

Insight Bowl – Missouri vs Iowa
Many in Iowa City are calling this season a disappointment following last year’s Orange Bowl championship, but the Hawkeyes have a chance to salvage the season against a very good Missouri team.  Iowa’s defense played well even in late season losses, and Kirk Ferentz will have the unit ready for Missouri’s four-headed running back monster. If Missouri wants to win, it will have to be through the air.
Iowa 33, Missouri 24

Military Bowl – East Carolina vs Maryland
These teams actually have two common opponents (Navy and N.C. State).  East Carolina’s defense is absolutely pathetic, as evident by the 76 points Navy put up in a route.  Maryland beat Navy and held the Midshipmen to 14 points.  The Pirates lost four of their final five while Maryland won four of its final six.  The game is being played in Washington D.C.  Anyone else seeing the trend here?
Maryland 49, East Carolina 20

Texas Bowl – Illinois vs Baylor
Two overachieving teams limp into Houston after not being picked bowl eligible before the season.  Illinois was thinking 9-3 with Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern and Fresno State as its final four, but finished just 1-3.  Baylor had the Big 12 South lead at 4-1 before losing its final three.  Robert Griffin should be able to make enough plays in this de facto home game.
Baylor 28, Illinois 22

Alamo Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Arizona
Both teams seem to have gotten the benefit of the doubt in the bowl selection process, despite Arizona finishing 0-4.  Oklahoma State brings the nation’s top offense to San Antonio, and that’s trouble for the wounded Wildcats, who gave up 40+ points against comparable offenses Stanford and Oregon.  The Cowboys’defensive struggles will mean little if they can win this shootout.
Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 24

Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs SMU
For the first time ever, all three service academy schools are bowl eligible, so Army gets the game you know they’ll be excited for.  We know Army can run the ball, but on the other side, can their pass defense stop a very efficient Kyle Padron, who has thrown for more than 3,500 yards this season.  Army will put up a fight in its first bowl game since 1996, but SMU, playing in its home town of Dallas, will win.
SMU 30, Army 19

Pinstripe Bowl – Kansas State vs Syracuse
The first ever bowl game in Yankee Stadium will be the coldest bowl without a doubt.  The inaugural game features a contrast of styles.  Syracuse wins with tough defense, while Kansas State relies on its running game to win high-scoring games.  Four of Syracuse’s five losses came at home, which isn’t good considering this one is in the home state.  It’s a coin flip, but I’ll take Syracuse.  I’ll probably be wrong.
Syracuse 21, Kansas State 20

Music City Bowl – North Carolina vs Tennessee
As bad as the Volunteers were at times, it’s hard to think they are actually bowl eligible.  They very quietly won their final four games to get here at 6-6, though they didn’t play a team as good as UNC during that streak.  North Carolina could have been in a very different position if not for the early season slew of suspensions.  They are a better team now then they were at the start of the year.
North Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs Washington
The ‘Huskers blew the Big 12 Championship game for the second year in a row, and again find themselves in the Holiday Bowl against a weak opponent who they already beat by five touchdowns.  The rare rematch was not the Holiday Bowl’s choice, but it will be more of the same.  Nebraska racked up 383 rushing yards in the week three blowout, and they may get more in San Diego.
Nebraska 37, Washington 7

Meineke Car Care Bowl – South Florida vs Clemson
South Florida has all kinds of problems, starting with their anemic offense. B.J. Daniels has three more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9), and they can’t run the ball either.  Clemson has struggled offensively as well, but against a much tougher schedule, Kyle Parker and the Tigers have done enough to keep them in most games.  This will be a defensive struggle, and not a pretty one to watch.
Clemson 17, South Florida 6

Sun Bowl – Notre Dame vs Miami
The Sun Bowl gets very lucky.  With USC’s two-year bowl ban, the Sun gets the first choice of an at-large team, and Notre Dame is the obvious one.  With Miami struggling down the stretch, the ‘Canes fall into the Sun Bowl’s lap, creating a battle of program-rich powers with down seasons.  Notre Dame comes in hot, while Miami limps in, but I still think the Hurricanes are the better team.
Miami 35, Notre Dame 30

Liberty Bowl – Georgia vs UCF
On paper this may not look fair, but don’t pencil anything in just yet.  UCF won Conference USA with defense, holding nine f their 13 opponents under 20 points.  Georgia started 1-4 but went 5-2 after that, rolling along with an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of those seven games.  In fact, the Bulldogs have scored at least 41 in all six wins.  Offense prevails in this one.
Georgia 38, UCF 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl – South Carolina vs Florida State
The losers of their respective conference championships meet in Atlanta after bigger dreams were dashed not long ago. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to wipe away humiliation they suffered just two weeks ago when Auburn torched the in this same building.  Christian Ponder and the Seminoles will be able to score, but the inconsistent defense needs to keep South Carolina at bay.
Florida State 33, South Carolina 31

TicketCity Bowl – Northwestern vs Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have to be disappointed with their 7-5 season considering they hired Tommy Tuberville in the offseason to bring a defensive mindset to the program, as well as establish a balance between run and pass.  Instead, Texas Tech finished 114th in total defense and 81st in rushing offense.  Northwestern is becoming a bowl regular, but can they win one? They too have defensive issues.
Texas Tech 32, Northwestern 27

Outback Bowl – Florida vs Penn State
Urban Meyer will supposedly be coaching his final game Jan. 1.  We’ll see.  If he does leave for good, his last game could potentially be a win over the man with the most coaching wins – Joe Paterno.  Meyer’s defense is solid, but John Brantley is suspect, and Jeffrey Demps is having a down year.  Even so, emotions will be riding high in Meyer’s last game, and the Gators have home-field advantage.
Florida 20, Penn State 12

Capital One Bowl – Alabama vs Michigan State
Who would have thought Nick Saban’s team would finish fourth in their own division?  Better yet, who would have thought Michigan State would win 11 games?  The ‘Tide roll in with the nation’s sixth best defense and have faced Spartan-quality offenses before.  Michigan State’s defense will see one of its most dynamic offensive opponents of the season with Greg McElroy and Julio Jones.
Alabama 28, Michigan State 7

Gator Bowl – Mississippi State vs Michigan
Believe it or not, neither of these teams had any bad losses.  Mississippi State’s four losses came against SEC West opponents ranked in the top 25, while Michigan lost to three 11-1 teams, as well as Iowa and Penn State.  The Bulldogs held running quarterback Cam Newton to 70 rushing yards…not a bad total, in an early season loss.  They will have to deal with Denard Robinson this time.
Mississippi State 27, Michigan 20

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Middle Tennessee State vs Miami-Ohio
Both teams come in hot.  Miami-Ohio upset Northern Illinois to win the MAC, while Middle Tennessee won three straight to get bowl eligible.  However, this is the Redhawks’game to lose.  The defense should be able to handle a Blue Raiders offense that doesn’t do much, and Thomas Merriweather could have a big day on the ground.  Miami-Ohio will make it six straight.
Miami-Ohio 35, Middle Tennessee State 14

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs Texas A&M
The Aggies finished 6-0 and landed here because of proximity.  LSU had a shot at the Sugar Bowl if not for a late season loss to Arkansas.  LSU has been all about defense and are doing it again this year despite facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.  You can bet they are looking forward to stopping Jerrod Johnson and an Aggie offense that was very good in the season’s second half.
LSU 27, Texas A&M 24

Compass Bowl – Pittsburgh vs Kentucky
Mike Hartline was the only thing keeping this game close.  He threw for 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns with only nine interceptions before being arrested, kicked off the team and effectively ending any hope Kentucky hd of keeping this game close.  The Panthers will get a big day from Dion Lewis against a soft UK rush defense, and Pitt should hold Kentucky’s offense in check without Hartline.
Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 10

Fight Hunger Bowl – Nevada vs Boston College
The Wolfpack may still have hangover worries because of the Boise State win, but Boston College is still one of the better teams they have played.  The interesting matchup here is Nevada’s 3rd ranked rush offense led by Vai Taua’s 120 yards per game against the top rush defense in the country.  For Nevada to be successful, they will have to stay balanced, which they can do against the Golden Eagles.
Nevada 27, Boston College 17

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU
This is the most difficult BCS game to pick, primarily because of what Wisconsin did offensively at the end of the year.  It’s scary to think the running game got better after John Clay got hurt, but that’s the truth.  The Badgers are in a rhythm right now, one that I can’t even see TCU breaking.  If TCU’s offense can move the ball, which I think they can, then it will be a fun game to watch.
Wisconsin 22, TCU 21

Fiesta Bowl – Connecticut vs Oklahoma
If you’re picking UConn, raise your hand.  If you’re raising your hand, stop lying.  Connecticut is one-dimensional on offense, though Oklahoma’s rush defense has been suspect.  Expect the Sooners to stack eight in the box and blitz a lot, forcing quick decisions from Zach Frazer.  If this game was played two weeks ago, Oklahoma wins.  But it’s in January.  I’m raising my hand.  Why not.
Connecticut 38, Oklahoma 35

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech
Remember when Virginia Tech lost to James Madison?  Me neither.  The Hokies have made everybody forget after winning 11 straight following an 0-2 start.  Stanford isn’t too shabby either.  It’s lone loss is to a team playing for a national title.  The Hokies have shown they can score, and Tyrod Taylor doesn’t make mistakes.  This should be another good one if both defenses come to play.
Virginia Tech 31, Stanford 24

Sugar Bowl – Ohio State vs Arkansas
A top 10 offense (Arkansas) vs a top 10 defense (Ohio State) is always a fun matchup.  Ohio State held a good Michigan offense to seven in the final game of the season.  Arkansas can score on good defenses though.  They put up 43 on Auburn, 41 on South Carolina and 31 on LSU.  I think Terrelle Pryor could have a big day against the Arkansas defense.  OSU plays in big games like this every year.
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 19

BCS National Championship – Auburn vs Oregon
The Ducks average better than 300 yards per game, while Auburn allows just 110.  Something has to give in what seems like an evenly matched national championship game.  Oregon’s weakness is its defensive front, which should allow Cam Newton time to do what he does.  However, no team is more dynamic or plays faster than the Ducks, which Auburn hasn’t seen.  Expect a shootout.
Oregon 45, Auburn 38

Conference records

ACC:  6-3
Big 12:  4-4
Big East:  5-1
Big Ten:  3-5
Conference USA:  1-5
Independents:  0-3
MAC:  2-2
Mountain West:  3-2
Pac 10:  1-3
SEC:  5-5
Sun Belt:  1-2
WAC:  4-0

Confidence

35)  Nebraska
34)  Pittsburgh
33)  Maryland
32)  Boise State
31)  Miami-Ohio
30)  BYU
29)  Alabama
28)  SMU
27)  West Virginia
26)  Oklahoma State
25)  Nevada
24)  Ohio State
23)  Clemson
22)  Air Force
21)  Iowa
20)  Ohio
19)  Hawaii
18)  Georgia
17)  Mississippi State
16)  San Diego State
15)  LSU
14)  Florida International
13)  Miami
12)  Baylor
11)  Fresno State
10)  Louisville
9)  Texas Tech
8)  Florida
7)  Florida State
6)  Virginia Tech
5)  Syracuse
4)  Oregon
3)  North Carolina
2)  Wisconsin
1)  Connecticut

Here are the real BCS standings

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There’s something special about college football Saturdays.  Every week can indeed change the season, as ESPN proclaims.  When I decided back in the summer that I was going to make a trip back to my alma mater to see old friends and watch my Missouri Tigers play Oklahoma in the Homecoming game, I certainly didn’t think both teams would be undefeated, and I never would have thought College Gameday would be in town.  Now both are a reality.  Yesterday’s euphoria of tweets and Facebook statuses was a great thing to see.  When I woke up this morning, it hadn’t changed.  There is still overwhelming excitement for what is now the Big 12′s game of the year to date.

But on to the task at hand.  The first official BCS rankings come out tonight.  That’s great if you want to see a bunch of coaches trump a bunch of computers and screw things up.  Here’s what the rankings should be when ESPN does the unveiling tonight:

1)  Oregon Ducks (6-0)
This is not a difficult decision coaches.  Oregon has played the most difficult schedule of all unbeatens, and has absolutely crippled opponents.  They are averaging 54 points per game and have not scored fewer than 42 in any game.

2)  TCU Horned Frogs (7-0)
TCU’s defense has been stifling.  They’ve allowed fewer points per game than any team in the country, and are beating up on everybody.  Andy Dalton has been huge, throwing for nearly 1,500 yards so far.  The Nov. 6 game at Utah is huge.

3)  Auburn Tigers (7-0)
Auburn can make a legitimate case for number two because of their schedule.  They already have wins against South Carolina, Arkansas and Clemson, though those were all at home.  They’ve won their two road games by three points each.

4)  Oklahoma Sooners (6-0)
There have been some close calls for the Sooners this year (Utah State, Air Force, Cincinnati, Texas), but Bob Stoops has won close games.  They’ve had a difficult schedule that only gets tougher with a road game at Missouri this week.

5)  Boise State Broncos (6-0)
The Broncos are going to need help.  Mathematically, there can be as many as five unbeatens after championship Saturday, and Boise would be fifth on the list because they don’t have a schedule.  Their biggest obstacle: the TCU/Utah winner.

6)  LSU Tigers (6-0)
Winning ugly seems to be the motto for this team.  Or maybe it’s winning lucky?  Either way, LSU is 7-0 in a difficult SEC.  The meat of their schedule hits this week with a trip to Auburn, followed by a visit from Alabama.  Arkansas is the last game.

7)  Utah Utes (6-0)
It has been a relatively easy road for the Utes so far, but they are taking care of business in a big way.  The last five games are tough, with road trips to Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State, and home games against TCU and BYU.

8)  Michigan State Spartans (7-0)
They obviously catch a huge break with no Buckeyes on the schedule.  The win over Wisconsin looks a lot better now, but the win over Michigan doesn’t.  All in all, it’s been an easy road for Sparty…until a trip to Iowa to end the month.

9)  Wisconsin Badgers (6-1)
Wisconsin finally got that program-changing victory.  The Badgers beat Ohio State to shake up the Big Ten.  If they go to Iowa City and win this week, they are a legit contender for a BCS game.  Their only loss is to undefeated Michigan State.

10)  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)
The loss to Wisconsin hurts, but Ohio State has been here before.  They lost to Illinois much later than this in 2007, then wound up playing in the title game when everyone else tanked.  They need a Michigan State loss and a win at Iowa.

11)  Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)
They looked sloppy again against Ole Miss but still came away with the win.  Wins against Penn State, Florida and Arkansas are all looking worse by the week, as is the loss to South Carolina.  Games against LSU and Auburn will decide the West.

12)  Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1)
The experience of Ricky Stanzi has made this a more dynamic offense in 2010.  The Hawkeyes have looked good on both sides of the ball since a loss at Arizona.  A lot stands in the way of a Big Ten title though starting with Wisconsin this week.

13)  Florida State Seminoles (6-1)
After a spanking at the hands of the Sooners, FSU has responded nicely with five straight wins and a 4-0 ACC start.  With a weak schedule that doesn’t include Virginia Tech, and the Florida game in Tallahassee, they could run the table.

14)  Arizona Wildcats (5-1)
Oregon State’s loss at Washington won’t do the ‘Cats any favors, but the win over Iowa is still a big one.  It’s a tough road for Arizona, especially without quarterback Nick Foles, but they are hopeful he’ll be back in time for a Nov. 26 trip to Eugene.

15)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0)
Yes, they’re 6-0, but how long will that really last?  They needed a late turnover to beat A&M at home, and they really haven’t played anyone outside of that.  They host Nebraska this week, and Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma will follow.

16)  Missouri Tigers (6-0)
Much like the Cowboys, Missouri hasn’t been tested yet.  Their defense ranks second in the country in points allowed, but it will be put to the test this week against a high-scoring Sooner offense.  After this is a trip to Nebraska.

17)  West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1)
Their only loss is a six point loss at undefeated LSU, and they have played a tougher schedule than most team on this list.  The problem is, while other teams have big games coming up, this team doesn’t.  Even with wins, they will likely slip.

18)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1)
Their nonconference schedule sucked, and they lost to an unranked (at the time) team at home.  Now Nebraska has to regroup for a big game in Stillwater, followed by a battle for the North crown with Missouri.  It’s not a fond Big 12 farewell.

19)  Stanford Cardinal (5-1)
Stanford football is back, no doubt.  But being spanked by Oregon and nearly losing to USC at home won’t go over well with voters or computers.  In a deep conference where every game is a threat, it will be hard for them to win it.

20)  Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2)
Arkansas is the best two-loss team in the country.  Losses to Alabama and Auburn are respectable, and they have wins over Texas A&M and Georgia.  Ryan Mallett is having a very good season, and they still play South Carolina and LSU.

21)  Texas Longhorns (4-2)
After an embarrassing loss to UCLA and a tough loss to Oklahoma, Texas responded by shutting down Nebraska in Lincoln.  Garrett Gilbert played mistake-free football in the win, which puts Texas back in the south hunt.

22)  South Carolina Gamecocks (4-2)
The letdown that many people predicted following a win against Alabama came earlier than the Gamecocks would have liked in a loss to Kentucky.  Still in the SEC East driver’s seat, South Carolina needs to beat Florida to win the division.

23)  Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
While other teams have slipped against weaker opponents, the Wildcats have not.  They responded to the Nebraska thrashing by destroying in-state rival Kansas.  The cupcake part of K-State’s schedule is over now with a trip to 5-2 Baylor next.

24)  Northwestern Wildcats (5-1)
They sit here for now because they only have one loss.  Whether or not they can keep themselves here remains to be seen.  They had a bye week this week to prepare for undefeated Michigan State.  Last year they beat then-undefeated Iowa.

25)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2)
After starting 0-2, all hope looked lost in Blacksburg.  Since then, the Hokies have won five straight and are unbeaten in the ACC.  The Orange Bowl is suddenly looking like a possibility again after losses to Boise State and James Madison.

Ohio State proves it’s worthy of #1

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(1) Ohio State 34, (18) Wisconsin 16

(12) Arkansas 28, (7) Auburn 27

(15) Iowa 30, Michigan 24

(5) Nebraska 21, Texas 17

(13) Michigan State 31, Illinois 21

UPSET SPECIAL:  San Diego State 31, (23) Air Force 23

Last week:  2-4
Overall:  23-13
Upsets:  1-5

Florida back to SEC penthouse

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#7 Florida 31, #1 Alabama 27

#4 Oregon 40, #9 Stanford 26

#8 Oklahoma 30, #21 Texas 27

#24 Michigan State 41, #11 Wisconsin 30

#17 Iowa 27, #22 Penn State 13

UPSET SPECIAL:  UNLV 27, #25 Nevada 23

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  17-7
Upsets:  1-3

Upstart ‘Cats get first big opportunity

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Once I knew I wanted to major in journalism, the challenge was finding the right school for me.  Once I was told Northwestern (money) and North Carolina (wait listed) were out of the picture, I narrowed my search to two schools – the University of Missouri and the University of Arizona.  I had made visits to both, and while both had top 10 journalism programs, there were strong contrasts.  Tucson was hot all the time (triple digits on my visit), whereas Columbia saw unpredictable and often cold weather.  Arizona had no streets on campus, Missouri was on a grid.  Little things like that.  But as someone who loved sports and wanted to be at a school where sports were prevalent, there was one major difference – Arizona rocked, Missouri sucked.  At just about everything.

I chose Missouri.

I will never regret my choice, for it seemed as soon as I arrived on campus, Missouri sports began to rise, while Arizona began to fall.  I enjoyed my years at Missouri seeing a football team reach number one, a basketball team come within a few possessions of its first Final Four, and a softball team make two consecutive WCWS appearances, among other achievements.

Now Arizona, finally, has a team with which to be proud.  The Wildcat football team has stepped out of basketball’s shadow and is knocking on the door of national recognition.  The defense has been all-world, though it hasn’t seen a team like it will see Saturday night when the Hawkeyes come to town.  Nick Foles has an 83 percent completion percentage, and Nic Grigsby is averaging eight yards per carry.  For the first time in a long time, Arizona has a chance to break through and get to a BCS game.  I like their chances in a wide open Pac 10.

#9 Iowa Hawkeyes at #24 Arizona Wildcats
Iowa defensive coordinator Norm Parker will not be there due to health issues, and it’s not a good game to miss.  Arizona has the number 12 offense in the country through two games, which is going to put even Iowa’s #9 defense to the best.  If Arizona can get a push on Iowa’s massive defensive line, then the run will open up the pass.  Tucson will be rocking.  If you live out east, make it a late night.  The game starts at 11:30 p.m. ET and probably won’t be decided until the closing minutes.
Arizona 28, Iowa 21

#6 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas will never forget.  Two years ago, the ‘Horns lost one game, but that one loss kept them from the Big 12 championship game when Michael Crabtree snagged a pass from Graham Harrell, wrestled away a defender and scampered into the endzone with one second left, lifting Texas Tech to a program-defining victory over Texas.  More of the same this year?  Not so fast.  Texas’defense will be able to control a Red Raider offense that doesn’t have the playmakers it did two years back.
Texas 35, Texas Tech 20

Clemson Tigers at #16 Auburn Tigers
I’ts Tigers vs Tigers in an ACC/SEC battle on primetime.  Neither team has been impressive in both weeks, but Auburn has been just a little bit better.  They found a way to grind out a win at Mississippi State last week and are coming in on 10 days rest.  Clemson’s defense has been awful so far, and that’s against North Texas and Presbyterian.  Auburn should be able to have its way offensively, so as long as they can play defense, they should be okay.
Auburn 41, Clemson 23

Air Force Falcons at #7 Oklahoma Sooners
Don’t sleep on the Falcons.  I’ve seen them play twice in person, and they have looked pretty good in both games.  Getting off to a fast start is key for Air Force, something they haven’t done in two wins so far.  Landry Jones returned to form last week as the Sooners dominated Florida State.  With a trip to Cincinnati on the schedule next, Oklahoma could finish a very difficult nonconference schedule unbeaten with a win in Norman.
Oklahoma 40, Air Force 31

#8 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies
The Huskers get their first real test of the season after a sloppy win over Idaho last week.  Jake Locker needs to prove himself in a big game, and this is it.  Taylor Martinez has been better with his feet (5 TDs) than with his arm (0 TDs), so Washington will have to spy him and keep him close.   However, the Huskie D has been pretty bad so far, so Martinez may be able to do both effectively.  Locker will have his moments, but it won’t be enough.
Nebraska 37, Washington 23

UPSET SPECIAL:  Georgia 30, #12 Arkansas 27
The Bulldogs lost a tough game at South Carolina last week and need a big win to get them going in the SEC.  Arkansas has been pretty good through two weeks, but a stern road test will change that.

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  8-4
Upsets:  1-1

Ducks fly together to #1 ranking

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Go ahead. Laugh.

I deserve it.

I’m the guy who said Oregon wouldn’t be the same team this year because of the losses of Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount. Oops.

I’m the guy who said New Mexico would come within a touchdown (31-24) of beating Oregon in Eugene (real final: 72-0). Oops.

Yes, I’m even the guy who criticized the offseason, saying they wouldn’t recover. Oops.

I’m also the guy who can admit when he’s wrong (though it doesn’t happen often).

I was wrong. Oregon is good. So good, in fact, that I can’t find a team better through two weeks. And the Ducks aren’t just thinking BCS. That was last year. This year, Oregon is thinking national championship.

Week 2 rankings:

1)  Oregon Ducks (2-0)
If you can find me a team that has played two more convincing games against quality competition, please come forward.  The Ducks beat a Mountain West team by 72, then went to Knoxville and won by five touchdowns.  That’s not normal.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
No Mark Ingram, no problem for the ‘Tide against JoePa.  Trent Richardson is not just Ingram’s replacement – he’s now a Heisman contender after his 144 rushing yards paced Alabama in a convincing win over the young Nittany Lions.

3)  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)
Against a Miami program that’s as good as its been since the ’03 Fiesta Bowl, Terrelle Pryor did just enough on offense to win the rematch.  Although he didn’t do much with his arm, Pryor’s 113 rushing yards kept the defense off the field.

4)  TCU Horned Frogs (2-0)
TCU overcame some mistakes to beat Oregon State in Dallas.  Last week, they were virtually perfect in a 62-7 slaughter of Tennessee Tech.  Six Horned Frogs saw the end zone.  Seven of the teams first eight games are in the state of Texas.

5)  Michigan Wolverines (2-0)
Before you start whining about how high they are, look at the schedule.  UConn is a good team, and that game wasn’t close.  Now look at the Notre Dame game.  Michigan came back to beat a likely nine-win team on the road.  Quality.

6)  Texas Longhorns (2-0)
Mack Brown might have the best defense in the country, but we already knew that.  This week, he let Garrett Gilbert throw more, and the first year starter rewarded his coach with 222 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers for the second straight game.

7)  Florida Gators (2-0)
The Gators overcame another slow start to blow by in-state rival South Florida.  Florida used big plays and five turnovers to set up 31 second half points and pull away in a game that featured no fumbled snaps after having eight the week before.

8)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0)
Nebraska’s 38 points against Idaho Saturday was deceiving.  The defense scored 14 of them and forced five takeaways, and the offense had trouble getting into a groove.  A road date with Washington Saturday is the Cornhuskers’first real test.

9)  Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0)
The in-state rivalry with the Cyclones is always a fun matchup for the fans, but not for the players in the red and white.  Iowa dominated again Saturday behind 156 rush yards from Adam Robinson on just 14 carries.  Iowa ran it 50 times overall.

10)  Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)
The convincing win over Florida State probably proves the Utah State scare was a fluke.  Nevertheless, I can’t rank them higher until I see FSU-like performances every week.  Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns Saturday.

11)  Utah Utes (2-0)
The Utes backed up their overtime thriller over Pittsburgh with an impressive showing against UNLV.  Even though the offensive numbers were nearly identical, the Utah special teams forced the Rebels into too many mistakes.

12)  Arizona Wildcats (2-0)
Going to Toledo and winning by 39 was more impressive than beating the Citadel by 46, but the margins of victory and the dominance their defense has shown make it difficult to put them even this low.  The game of the week is in Tucson this week.

13)  Wisconsin Badgers (2-0)
After a good second half against UNLV, the Badgers looked extremely sluggish against San Jose State in the home opener.  John Clay was a workhorse once again, but the passing attack managed fewer than 200 yards.  Arizona State visits Saturday.

14)  LSU Tigers (2-0)
Find me another team that has two road wins over power conference opponents.  If you’re having trouble, that’s because there’s only one.  Les Miles is working his way off the hot seat with a hot start.  The defense held Vanderbilt to 135 total yards.

15)  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
They have one win, and it is against an 0-2 team that lost to an FCS team at home.  If the Broncos were to hang their hat on one win this year, Virginia Tech was going to have to be that win.  Now it’s not.  They are lucky to be in my top 15.

16)  Miami Hurricanes (1-1)
Miami is the best non-undefeated team in the country, but showed weaknesses against a very good Ohio State team.  After I praised Jacory Harris for the way he protects the ball in wins, he promptly threw four interceptions in the loss.

17)  South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)
South Carolina started its SEC season off with a bang in knocking off a ranked Bulldogs team in Columbia.  Defense was the story for offensive-minded Steve Spurrier, as his team held Georgia to 61 rush yards and 192 pass yards.

18)  Stanford Cardinal
Going into the Rose Bowl and winning isn’t easy, but Stanford made it look that way Saturday night.  Andrew Luck was not great but mistake-free, and the defense shut out UCLA and scored a TD in Stanford’s first road win over UCLA since 1996.

19)  Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0)
My skepticism is fading.  For now.  Ryan Mallett battled through a rough first have to complete 28 passes for 400 yards and lift Arkansas to a 24 point second half to pull away from Louisiana-Monroe.  Greg Childs had 148 yards and two TDs.

20)  Penn State Nittany Lions (1-1)
Saturday’s loss to Alabama was a classic example of inexperience showing its colors against a good team.  The young Nittany Lions were not as physical as the ‘Tide, and it showed.  Sophomore Kevin Newsome got to take a few snaps at the end.

21)  Auburn Tigers (2-0)
Auburn has been less than impressive in both games, but winning on the road in the SEC is tough, and Auburn passed test one with a win at Mississippi State.  Six Tigers combined for 190 rushing yards.  Clemson comes to town this week.

22)  California Golden Bears (2-0)
I probably should have the Bears higher after outscoring opponents a combined 105-10 the first two weeks.  Kevin Riley threw four touchdowns in the latest parade, this a 52-7 win over soon-to-be Pac 10 for Colorado.

23)  Air Force Falcons (2-0)
After crushing Northwestern State in week one, Air Force dominated a ranked BYU team in Falcon Stadium.  The Cougars never saw the endzone in the Mountain West’s first game.  The Falcons head to Norman for a battle with OU Saturday.

24)  West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0)
The Mountaineers escaped Marshall in overtime Friday in a game they probably should have lost.  Noel Devine rushed for 112 yards, and Geno Smith threw for 316 yards on 32 pass completions.  Maryland and LSU are on the schedule next.

25)  Houston Cougars (2-0)
Case Keenum is not on pace for another record-breaking season, but he’s lighting up the scoreboards again for the Cougars.  After leading Houston to 68 points in the opener, he put up 54 Saturday.  Houston makes a trip to the Rose Bowl next.

Broncos earn title spot, #1 ranking

After 15 hours of driving, a delayed flights , a missed connection, a hurricane, terrible airport food and cab trouble, I’m finally in a hotel room and begrudgingly hoping my travel troubles are through (knock on wood).  As tempting as it is to ram my head through this moldy hotel drywall or watch another Navy/Maryland fumblefest, I’ve decided that I owe it to you to keep to my promise and deliver my weekly rankings.

There’s no better place to start than with the weekend’s final game, which made every national title contender cringe.  Any program with a remote shot of making the BCS national championship took a huge hit Monday night when Kellen Moore took a BCS bombshell and dropped it perfectly into the hands of Austin Pettis in the closing moments against Virginia Tech.  That sealed a 33-30 victory and all but put the Broncos in the championship, leaving just one spot open for the rest of the nation to fight for.  With Boise State’s victory, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that a one-loss team will not play for the national championship this season.  That means Ohio State cannot afford its annual hiccup, and the Florida/Alabama loser Oct. 2 is thinking Sugar Bowl at best.

With droopy eyes and an exponential hatred for air transit, here are my rankings after week one:

1)  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
Who else do you put here?  The Broncos have the nation’s best win after downing Virginia Tech in the capital.  They also become the first team to clinch a spot in the championship game after the opening week.  Now, who will they play?

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
The defending champions rolled to a strong opening day win, and Trent Richardson did just fine filling in for the injured Mark Ingram.  As of now, Ingram is questionable for Saturday’s game against Penn State.  Early upset?

3)  Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
The Bucks crushed Marshall Thursday and immediately started talking about Miami, who they’ll play this weekend.  Terrelle Pryor had three touchdown passes in the tune-up win before the ‘Canes.  Will Pryor benefit from a phantom call?

4)  Oregon Ducks (1-0)
Remember when I said New Mexico would come close to pulling the upset?  Go ahead and laugh.  After Oregon’s 72-0 victory in which they gained 720 total yards, it’s clear the offense didn’t need Jeremiah Masoli or LaMichael James.  Rose Bowl?

5)  Texas Longhorns (1-0)
Garrett Gilbert played mistake-free football in his first start, and the unproven offense did enough to win Mack Brown’s first ever opener away from Austin.  The big burst came during a 24 point second quarter.  Who was the QB last year again?

6)  Florida Gators (1-0)
Lots of people are making a big deal about the botch snaps that led to eight fumbles, but my biggest concern is the 13 offensive yards they put up in the first half.  Should Tim Tebow say a prayer before game two?

7)  Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
A 59-6 win is impressive no matter who you play, especially considering Florida State never comes to play in week one.  Jimbo Fisher has brought a new attitude to Tallahassee, and it shows.  Can they beat the suddenly vulnerable Sooners?

8)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-0)
Yes, it was a complete mismatch, but part of playing these games is winning by the appropriate amount, and that’s what Bo Pelini’s squad did in a 49-10 route of Western Kentucky.  Will they demand to take their flag from all Big 12 stadiums?

9)  TCU Horned Frogs (1-0)
The Horned Frogs dominated every statistical category except the scoreboard.  A 30-21 game-not-as-close-as-score win made Andy Dalton the winningest QB in TCU history.  Will they play Boise State in a bowl game for the third straight year?

10)  Virginia Tech Hokies (0-1)
It’s clear Tyrod Tayler is a great quarterback, and Frank Beamer has a really good team.  The first quarter doomed the Hokies, and as predicted, defense is going to be the problem.  Can they run the table in the improved ACC?

11)  Miami Hurricanes (1-0)
After last year’s hot start, the ‘Canes are looking to repeat a spectacular September.  Jacory Harris tossed three touchdowns in a 45-0 win over Florida A&M Thursday.  Now it’s OSU.  Over/under on how many ’02 alums have called the team this week?

12)  Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
John Clay had 17 carries for 123 yards and two touchdowns as Wisconsin used a 24-0 third quarter to pull away from UNLV in Vegas.  Wisconsin always starts in the top 15.  Is this the year they finish there?

13)  Utah Utes (1-0)
Utah had a very good win over Pittsburgh Thursday night, and set themselves up nicely to make a run in the Mountain West.  DeVonte Christopher caught eight passes for 155 yards.  Utah should schedule home games every Thursday, right?

14)  Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
It’s hard to ignore Michigan because of all the national hype, but they sure did come to play Saturday against UConn.  Denard Robinson, the quarterback, looked more like a running back with 197 yards rushing.  Will they finally beat Ohio State?

15)  Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)
After a slow start, Rob Bolden and company got it rolling in the second half in a 44-14 win over Youngstown State.  The offense did struggle a bit with only 371 total yards, but I’m sure they will clean it up against Alabama Saturday, yea?

16)  Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0)
It wasn’t pretty for Iowa – Eastern Illinois had them outgained for a while in the first half – but the Hawkeyes used stifling defense to cruise 37-7.  Ricky Stanzi avoided an early injury.  When will Iowa’s two blocked field goals come this year?

17)  Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
Scary moments for the Sooners against the tough…Utah State?  That’s right.  Oklahoma nearly let another opener turn into a disaster when the Aggies bounced out of an early hole to make it a game.  Will they get stung by FSU this week?

18)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-0)
Guess who’s back with an even better running game?  Believe it or not, Georgia Tech looks like it might be even more explosive on the ground after Saturday’s 372 yard ground performance.  Will they defend their ACC crown?

19)  LSU Tigers (1-0)
I’m trying not to give the Tigers too much credit for a win over a second string roster, but it was a road game against a top 25 opponent, and LSU got it done.  Les Miles needed that win and now will likely start 5-0.  Is LSU back?

20)  Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0)
I don’t like this team as much as the writers do, but Ryan Mallett was very good and made an early case for SEC player of the year, completing 21 of 24 passes in a 41 point win.  Can they beat Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn in a row?

21)  BYU Cougars (1-0)
The Cougars used a come-from-behind effort to knock off Jake Locker and Washington Saturday.  The defense shut out Washington in the second half.  The big question – can BYU bring it every week as an independent?

22)  Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
Do-it-all quarterback Aaron Murray threw three touchdowns and added one on the ground to help Georgia slaughter Louisiana-Lafayette.  Things heat up fast with South Carolina up next.  How will the Bulldogs fare in the SEC East?

23)  West Virginia Mountaineers (1-0)
Noel Devine began his Heisman push with 11 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown against Coastal Carolina.  The Mountaineers have Maryland and LSU on the nonconference slate this season.  Will they win both?

24)  Arizona Wildcats (1-0)
The Wildcats, eager to avenge the Holiday Bowl disaster against Nebraska, came out smoking at Toledo with a 41-2 victory.  Nick Foles threw for 360 yards in the onslaught.  The Wildcats now have four straight home games.  Breakout year?

25)  Stanford Cardinal (1-0)
No Toby Gerhart, no problem for Stanford.  Andrew Luck didn’t need much luck in throwing four touchdowns and throwing Stanford past Sacramento State.  The Pac 10 season kicks off Saturday with UCLA.  Can they send the Bruins to 0-2?

Preseason college football bowl picks

The college football season begins tomorrow, and while Thursday can’t come fast enough for many players, coaches and fans, much of the country is wait because…well…I haven’t made my predictions yet.

Here they are.  The BCS games at least.

There is no tournament as you know, and that’s just fine.  Eyeballs are still on the screen, money is still flowing in and teams are still jumping conferences in search of that extra dollar.  The final season pre-realignment should be a dandy.

BCS National Championship
Florida (13-0) vs Oklahoma (13-0)

Are these the two most talented teams in the country?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Only time will tell.  Florida’s passing game is its biggest question mark.  Besides the obvious loss of Tim Tebow, the Gators return only one starting receiver from its 2010 Sugar Bowl championship team (Deonte Thompson), but a lot of unproven talent led by Carl Moore and Chris Rainey.  Florida’s schedule shapes up nicely.  They play just three games outside the state, two of which should be sleepers.  The game everybody is talking about is the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and by that point, Urban Meyer will have figured out a way to use his dynamic running back tandem and throw the ball effectively.  Alabama lost 13 defensive players to the draft, and has always been pretty vanilla offensively.  Florida is faster and more talented, and they will beat the Tide twice this year to reach the championship game 13-0.

Oklahoma knows it will likely have to run the table to get back to the championship game.  Landry Jones is back after playing nearly a full season filling in for the injured Sam Bradford.  Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray return to help an offense that should expect to show flashes of 2009 when they put up five straight 60+ point games.  The defense has just five returning starters.  If they fail to make it back to this game, it won’t be because they didn’t score enough points.  The non-conference schedule is difficult, but the Sooners should take care of Florida State in Norman, and should finish nonconference play without a blemish if they don’t overlook a trip to Cincinnati.  The game everybody wants to see is the Red River Shootout.  Spoiler alert: don’t bet on Texas.  On the same day Florida soars by Alabama, Oklahoma will do the same to Texas.  Last year Bradford got hurt in the first quarter, and the Sooners nearly won the game anyway.  This time Texas is the team without its Heisman candidate.  With a more experienced Jones running the show, Bob Stoops will find ways to score on a good Texas defense.  After that, the Sooners should roll through the rest of the schedule until they meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.  Something tells me Oklahoma won’t want Nebraska walking away with the final league championship game banner before bolting for the Big Ten.

Rose Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs Oregon State (8-4)

The Buckeyes have become a BCS staple, and that won’t change this season.  Terrelle Pryor is a preseason Heisman pick, and the Buckeyes return 10 starters on offense.  The experience should help make the offense better, especially the 106th ranked passing attack.  Defensively, don’t expect Ohio State to fall off.  Led by All American defensive end Cameron Heyward, Ohio State will be making life miserable for Big Ten opponents again.  I’m picking them to lose either at Wisconsin or at Iowa, but the slip shouldn’t keep them from another Big Ten championship and another Rose Bowl appearance.

The Oregon State pick may surprise you.  It may surprise Dennis Dodd too, who has the Beavers eighth in his preseason standings.  Honestly, the most talented team in the conference cannot play in this game, which is why I’m picking the team I think will finish second.  This race is going to be tight all year, and as we learned last year, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between one and eight.  Jacquizz and James Rodgers are outstanding playmakers who will make life much easier for first year starter Ryan Katz.  The defense will be solid with nine returning starters, as long as they can stop the pass.  Oregon State has a brutal schedule.  They are the only team in the country to play all 12 games against either BCS opponents or teams that made BCS bowl games in 2010.  They go to TCU and Boise State before Pac 10 play begins, and while they will likely lose both, they will be battle tested before conference play.  They have USC and Oregon at home, and without Jeremiah Masoli and all the offseason problems the Ducks had, I think the Beavers will take the Civil War.  It will be a 7-2 finish for Oregon State, which will be good enough to finish ahead of the eight teams they need to in order to make this game.

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)

The Hokies get the first chance of any team to really put its mark on 2010 when it opens in the nation’s capital against Boise State.  After that, it’s a coin toss for Frank Beamer’s squad as it plays out the ACC schedule that has been as predictable as a Toyota brake or a Pittsburgh Pirate bullpen outing.  The offense, yes offense, will be the ones carrying this team. Beamer will have to get used to pitch and catch style football with Ryan Williams and a healthy Darren Evans in the backfield.  Tyrod Taylor is a senior now with plenty of experience and a plethora of receivers to throw to.  The defense may be shaky while the newcomers fill in, but Beamer is a defensive-minded coach, so don’t bet against his D.  I have the Hokies with two losses.  Boise State will not be one of them.

Pittsburgh may seem like the most obvious major college champion, and they are, but the question is where do they go?  The last Big East team to play in the Orange Bowl got waxed (by the Hokies), and the committee has thought twice about putting little sister in the game ever since.  A heisman-type running back leads an offense that may be better than what they showed against the Bearcats in the regular season finale.  The defense returns six, but the suspect unit could pose problems against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Miami and Utah.  Dave Wannstedt’s crew is itching for a BCS berth after coming up just short last year, and they will get it.  There are four games to look out for, and they will lose two of them: at Utah, Miami, at Notre Dame, at Cincinnati.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (11-2) vs Boise State (11-1)

The Sugar Bowl’s replacement pick will be Alabama, who will be happy to see Urban Meyer’s Gators gone after Florida trucks them in Atlanta in December.  Alabama will have too hard a time replacing 13 defensive players to be the same type of powerhouse it was in 2009.  More will be expected of Greg McElroy, who has yet to prove he can actually carry a team despite his career record.  Nevertheless, this is still a very good and very dangerous team.  The schedule is not all that difficult outside of Florida, so the Tide should be able to handle all non-Urban Meyer-coached teams pretty easily.  This may be deja vü – they were beaten by a mid-major in 2008.

That mid-major shouldn’t be considered a mid-major any longer.  Boise State is for real, and they will show it this season.  Only one, yes one, starter from either side of the ball is gone, and a top Heisman contender in Kellen Moore returns to lead the Broncos in one of the most anticipated seasons in school history.  An undefeated season may mean a trip to Glendale for the national championship game, but it won’t happen.  I have the Broncos losing to Virginia Tech in the opener at RFK.  Why?  Because Boise has the same team they had last year, and that team gave up way too many points in a very weak conference.  The Virginia Tech offense is experienced and lethal, which is why I think the Hokies will win in a shootout.  After the Monday night setback, Boise State will run the table to earn its third BCS trip in four years.

Fiesta Bowl
Texas (11-1) vs TCU (11-1)

If there was any positive during an otherwise disgusting national championship performance by the Longhorns, it was the second half play of now-starter Garrett Gilbert.  Although he is no McCoy, Gilbert’s gameday experience will help him.  The question is, will his offensive line?  Relatively unproven tackles will have to fend off quick defensive ends, and Gilbert may see his share of turf time.  The schedule is an interesting one, as Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders host the ‘Horns in week three.  Last time Texas visited Lubbock, Michael Crabtree whipped the Raider faithful into a frenzy.  Don’t think the Longhorns have short memories.  The Red River Shootout is always the game of the year in the conference, and this year’s game is no exception.  It’s the only game I have Texas losing, simply because Oklahoma is the only team that can shred an otherwise stellar secondary.  One other game to look out for – Texas travels to Lincoln Oct. 16 for a rematch with Nebraska.  After a bye, I like the ‘Horns.

TCU still has a bitter taste in its mouth after the offense failed to show up in this game last year.  The Fiesta Bowl committee will be hesitant to take them, but in the end won’t pass up the opportunity to match these Texas teams together in a game fans have wanted to see since TCU climbed into the national spotlight.  Andy Dalton returns with a number of 400 yard receivers to spread the ball around to.  Four offensive line starters return to help two new running backs get into the mix, and seven starters return on the defensive unit that was one of the best in the country.  TCU opens with pesky Oregon State in the Jerry Dome, then it’s a relatively light load until a Nov. 6 matchup at Utah.  That’s the only time the Horned Frogs will fall this season, leaving them out of the national championship picture but giving them their second straight BCS appearance.

Greatest upset ever? Not even close

The sound of Kevin Harlan and Dan Bonner freaking out simultaneously is still ringing in my ears.  It happened twice this past weekend.  Once when Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh buried UNLV with a near-30 footer, and again when his gasp-turned-craziness three sealed the upset win over Kansas.  The latter game was dubbed the greatest upset in NCAA history (or something along those lines) by Greg Gumble in the postgame.

Not even close actually.  It’s not even the greatest upset of this tournament.

By seed, the honor goes to the fourteenth seeded Ohio Bobcats, who spanked third seeded Georgetown by 14 points.  This is the same Ohio team that was seeded ninth in the MAC tournament.  Ninth.  Northern Iowa was seeded first in the Missouri Valley tournament.

Missouri Valley > MAC
Northern Iowa > Ohio

The Panthers were in and out of the rankings this year but were thought to be a huge cinderella simply because the conference was arguably the worst it has ever been, certainly the worst it has been in the past 10 years.  As a result, their two best wins came against Old Dominion and Siena, and three losses outside the RPI top 100 doomed their NCAA tournament seeding.

Even with the weak schedule, holding opponents to 54 points per game, best among tournament teams, is impressive.  They don’t turn the ball over (only 10.6 per game), they outrebound teams by three on average and they shoot 76 percent from the free throw line.  But somehow everybody (myself included) wrote Kansas on the sweet sixteen line without taking a second glance at the Panthers.

We know better now.

Further proof that this upset should not come as the overhyped surprise that the media is making it out to be lies in recent tournament history.  One, two and three seeds that play poorly in the first round tend to lose in the second round.

In 2005, #2 seed UConn lost to N.C. State after beating Central Florida by only six.In 2006, #2 seed Tennessee lost to Wichita State after beating Winthrop by only two, and #2 seed Ohio State fell to Georgetown after beating Davidson by just eight.  In 2008, #2 seed Duke escaped Belmont by one before falling to West Virginia.  This year, #2 seed Villanova needed overtime to beat Robert Morris, then fell to St. Mary’s.  New Mexico (#3 seed) squeaked by Montana before getting blown out by Washington.

Anyone who watched the Jayhawks play Thursday knows they played poorly.  Lehigh scored 12 of the game’s first 16 points and trailed by only six at one point in the second half.  Maybe Kansas was giving us a warning sign that they were another early exit victim based on poor first round play.  After all, teams only get 48 hours to prepare for the next game after winning the first one.  Maybe 48 hours wasn’t enough for Bill Self to figure out how to score against the physical and fundamentally sound Panther defense.

Either way, this is not the biggest upset in tournament history.  2004 featured #9 seed UAB upsetting #1 Kentucky in a game far more unexpected than this.  How about 2006 when #11 seed George Mason knocked off #1 UConn?  That same year, #14 seed Northwestern State KOed #3 Iowa.  This year’s Ohio over Georgetown game also figured a larger discrepancy in seeds.  Technically, so did Murray State/Vanderbilt.

Now we will never know how the Jayhawks, who were (and still are) the best team in the country, match up with Syracuse.  Or Kentucky.  That’s one nice thing about college football.  We always see #1 vs #2.  Rarely does that happen in college basketball.

Thank you Northern Iowa for ruining some potential dream matchups that avid fans have been waiting all year for.  Then again, thank you for continuing the excitement of this tournament, for making mid-majors believe and for ruining brackets all over the country.

They pulled off the upset.  And it was big.

But it wasn’t the biggest.

Picking all 34 bowl games

Bowl season gets underway Saturday with the first of 34 bowl games.  Damn, that’s 68 bowl bids.  I guess when a team loads up on FCS and Sun Belt teams in the nonconference, being bowl eligible doesn’t mean much.  But here we are anyway, and I’ll attempt to pick all 34, though I will likely only watch about half of them.

New Mexico Bowl – Fresno State vs Wyoming
Fresno finished strong with a dramatic overtime win over Illinois in Champaign.  A loaded schedule included losses to Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Boise State, but that should have them ready.  Props for Dave Christensen for getting Wyoming back to a bowl in his first season.
Pick:  Fresno State

Beef ‘O’Brady’s Bowl – Central Florida vs Rutgers
When Rutgers lost by 32 at home to Cincinnati in week one, things weren’t looking good.  But the Scarlet Knights pulled it together and finished 8-4 in a surprisingly competitive Big East.  However, Central Florida basically has a home game here, and containing Tim Brown’s big play ability will be key.  Rutgers’D ranks 99th.
Pick:  Central Florida

New Orleans Bowl – Southern Mississippi vs Middle Tennessee State
Sub Belt runner-up Middle Tennessee’s lone conference loss was to Troy, and 9-3 should be considered a success.  Al logic says pick the Blue Raiders, but I’m going against my logic on this.  Southern Mississippi had some heartbreaking losses against good teams, which will ultimately have them prepared for this game.
Pick:  Southern Mississippi

Las Vegas Bowl – Oregon State vs BYU
The Beavers were just a few plays away from playing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.  Instead, they settle for Vegas and a great matchup with BYU.  The Beavers played five teams in the top 25, while the Cougars played just two.  Max Hall should have fun with the Beaver defense, but Oregon State will win a high-scoring game.
Pick:  Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl – Utah vs California
Jahvid Best should be ready for this game, but how well he will do coming back from the concussion is unknown.  The Golden Bears, ranked as high as #6 earlier this year, fell after back to back blowout losses mid-season.  Utah’s defense is #20 in the country, while Cal ranks at #70.
Pick:  Utah

Sheraton Bowl – Nevada vs SMU
SMU will snap its 25 year bowl drought when it takes the field in Honolulu on Christmas Eve to play Nevada.  The Wolfpack got hot at the end of the season, winning eight of their final nine after an 0-3 start.  SMU will be happy to be here.  Nevada isn’t leaving without a win.
Pick:  Nevada

Little Caesars Bowl – Marshall vs Ohio
One of only two bowls north of the Mason Dixon line takes place in Detroit between two virtually equal teams.  Marshall is 6-6 but has played a tougher schedule.  Ohio is 9-4 after a MAC Championship loss to Central Michigan.  Ohio did play Tennessee and UConn tough.
Pick:  Ohio

Meineke Car Care Bowl – Pittsburgh vs North Carolina
Like Oregon State, Pittsburgh has to be crushed knowing that an Orange Bowl date with Georgia Tech was probably one or two plays away.  After a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati, the Panthers settle for a “neutral” site game in Charlotte with the Heels.  Carolina’s defense will keep it close, but the ‘Heels just can’t score.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Emerald Bowl – Boston College vs USC
I’m really entertained to see what the line on this game will turn out to be.  Right now it’s USC -9, and I’ll take the Trojans to cover.  Boston College has a terrible offense, and USC’s defense can be good despite some poor games.  This is a weird bowl to see USC playing in, and you know they are peeved about it.  Watch out BC.
Pick:  USC

Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs Clemson
Clemson, suffering from the Pitt/Oregon State virus, will have to watch their team take on a -not-as-good-as-their-record Kentucky team.  I’ve thought the ‘Cats were overrated all year, and Clemson has a chance to prove me right.  Kentucky’s rush D is ranked #100.  C.J. Spiller will have a field day.
Pick:  Clemson

Independence Bowl – Texas A&M vs Georgia
The interesting matchup here is Georgia’s fairly good defense against Texas A&M’s explosive offense.  The Aggies lit up Texas’third ranked D and can do it again when they play the Bulldogs.  But the Aggie defense is awful, and Georgia should have its chances to score as well.
Pick:  Georgia

EagleBank Bowl – UCLA vs Temple
Games like this are the toughest to pick.  UCLA is 6-6, but with the #11 schedule in the nation.  Temple is 9-3, but had the sixth easiest schedule.  UCLA’s offense is ranked #88.  Temple’s is #89.  UCLA’s defense is #39, Temple’s is #37.  I’ll take the Bruins because of the schedule.
Pick:  UCLA

Champs Sports Bowl – Miami vs Wisconsin
Another game with no distinct advantage is a good one which features two 9-3 teams.  Wisconsin’s loss to Northwestern cost them their shot at a New Year’s Day bowl game despite a better overall record than the Wildcats.  Jacory Harris will make enough plays to push the ‘Canes to victory in their home state.
Pick:  Miami

Humanitarian Bowl – Bowling Green vs Idaho
Idaho fans were on a roller coaster early this season with the team’s 6-1 start.  But that vanished after the Vandals lost four of their final five, and they limp into Boise, where they lost on the same field by 38.  This time, Tyler Sheehan and Bowling Green are the opponents.  Limiting Sheehan’s big plays will be key for Idaho.
Pick:  Idaho

Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs Nebraska
Geographically, Arizona has the edge, but Husker fans will travel to watch their near Big 12 champions play.  Both defenses are really good, which is why I think 17 points may be enough.  The difference is that Arizona can score, and has, against good teams.  The Huskers haven’t shown consistent offense all season.
Pick:  Arizona

Armed Forces Bowl – Houston vs Air Force
The Armed Forces have their team, the Falcons, in this game.  Awaiting the Falcons is the #1 offense in the nation – the Houston Cougars.  Case Keenum and James Cleveland will be faced with its toughest task of the season with the Falcons’#10 defense.  It’s Keenum’s chance to prove he deserved an invite to New York.
Pick:  Houston

Sun Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford
How about this high-profile matchup?  Last year, the final score of the Sun Bowl was 3-0.  This year Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart and the Cardinal will need more than that to beat the Sooners.  Gerhart will look to add to his nation-best 26 touchdowns against the seventh ranked Sooner rush defense.
Pick:  Stanford

Texas Bowl – Navy vs Missouri
Missouri became the first team in college football history to scout its bowl opponent in a live game, as the Army/Navy game took place after the bowl selection process.  It’s Navy’s fourth ranked rush attack vs Missouri’s #12 rush defense.  Navy’s only chance is if they can find a way to pass.
Pick:  Missouri

Insight Bowl – Minnesota vs Iowa State
The Insight Bowl took the Cyclones, who are bowling for the first time since 2001.  That decision makes for a good game.  Neither team’s offense or defense is any good, but the Gophers at least have a respectable defense.  Iowa State can’t stop anyone.
Pick:  Minnesota

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Tennessee
Here’s a game that I don’t think will be close.  Virginia Tech has an outstanding defense, and Tennessee doesn’t do much to move the ball.  The Vols defense may keep it respectable for a while, but eventually Virginia Tech, who was ranked as high as number four even after the ‘Bama loss, will pull away.
Pick:  Virginia Tech

Outback Bowl – Northwestern vs Auburn
Would you believe me if I told you Auburn has played seven top 30 teams?  That’s right, seven.  The Tigers won three of those games, but it’s more about the fact that they played those games that has them prepared for this New Year’s Day dandy.  Northwestern played well at the end of the year and won’t go down without a fight.
Pick:  Auburn

Capital One Bowl – Penn State vs LSU
The best bowl game of the season is in Orlando.  LSU played Florida and Alabama tough, but Penn State will be a monstrous challenge as well.  The Lions’D is eighth best in the country, and LSU has the twelfth worst offense in the nation.  It’s going to be tough for the Tigers to score.
Pick:  Penn State

Gator Bowl – West Virginia vs Florida State
How ironic is it that Bobby Bowden’s last game is against the team he used to coach?  As fun as the Bowden storyline should be, the Seminoles have no business being in this game.  Other ACC schools (Clemson, Miami) have to be peeved about the ‘Noles getting the Gator bid.
Pick:  West Virginia

International Bowl – South Florida vs Northern Illinois
Sophomore quarterback Chandler Harnish has been very efficient for Northern Illinois, but they haven’t played a team nearly as good as South Florida since a week one loss to Wisconsin.  The Bulls played tough in a good Big East conference.  The only bowl not played in the U.S. should be a fun one.
Pick:  South Florida

Papajohns.com Bowl – South Carolina vs Connecticut
Middle-of-the-pack teams clash in the only bowl named for a pizza.  UConn lost all five games by four points or fewer, which is quite unbelievable when you think about it.  A few bounces going the other way could make this team 12-0.  Four of South Carolina’s five losses came by double digits.
Pick:  Connecticut

Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Mississippi
Both of these teams started the season in the top 10 and had national championship aspirations.  Jevan Snead was supposed to win the Heisman and go #1.  Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant were supposed to combine to form the best offense in the country.  This is a game of disappointment.
Pick:  Mississippi

Liberty Bowl – Arkansas vs East Carolina
The Pirates were awfully impressive in capturing their second straight Conference USA championship by knocking off Houston.  Their reward is a date with Arkansas.  Ryan Mallett had a heck of a year that went unnoticed because the Hogs lost five games.
Pick:  Arkansas

Alamo Bowl – Michigan State vs Texas Tech
Everyone knew this would be a down year for Texas Tech following the losses of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but 8-4 is surprisingly respectable for the Red Raiders.  First year starter Taylor Potts threw for more than 3,000 yards, and he’ll have another big game against the Spartans.
Pick:  Texas Tech

GMAC Bowl – Central Michigan vs Troy
Central Michigan’s turnaround led to a MAC championship.  Now Butch Jones is bolting for Cincinnati to fill the void left by Brian Kelly.  Coach or no coach, the Chippewas should have no trouble moving the ball at will against Troy.  Troy has the offense to keep it close, so look for a high-scoring game.
Pick:  Central Michigan

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs Oregon
Jeremiah Masoli and the Ducks could have folded after losing to Boise State to open the season.  Instead, the Ducks won 10 of 11, dethroned USC to win the Pac 10, and earned a Rose Bowl berth.  Ohio State is on the other end, making this the best BCS game on this year’s slate.
Pick:  Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Cincinnati vs Florida
Tim Tebow lost the game he wanted to win more than anything.  Now he plays his last college game against a team without a coach.  Cincinnati has scored a lot of points on a lot of people, but they haven’t faced a defense like Florida’s.  Tebow won’t let the Gators lose this one.
Pick:  Florida

Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs TCU
We can talk all we want about the fact that these are two non-BCS teams playing each other, or about them both being undefeated, or about them playing in the national championship game.  But the matchup is what it is, and it should be entertaining.  TCU won last year, and they’ll repeat this year.
Pick:  TCU

Orange Bowl – Iowa vs Georgia Tech
The Hawkeyes were an overtime loss away from winning the Big Ten, but they’ll take their first BCS bowl game since the era began.  Awaiting Iowa and its #11 defense is Georgia Tech’s second ranked rush offense, led by Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt.
Pick:  Georgia Tech

BCS National Championship – Alabama vs Texas
Which Texas team will show up?  The Horns that blew out Okie State in Stillwater?  It better be.  The team that “beat” Nebraska?  Stay home.  We know the Tide and Heisman winner Mark Ingram will be there.  Both teams have good enough defenses to keep from getting blown out.  Bottom line: roll Tide.
Pick:  Alabama