Picking all 35 bowl games

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Another bowl season is upon us, and it’s time for me to make my picks so I have a reason to watch a number of games I would otherwise not care about.

New Mexico Bowl – BYU vs UTEP
A disastrous start to the season for BYU was saved by winning five of six before nearly pulling off an upset at Utah.  The Cougars saved their season and are playing their best ball now, while UTEP is headed in the opposite direction.  The Miners lost five of six after starting 5-1.  The records are even, but these are not evenly matched teams.
BYU 45, UTEP 14

Humanitarian Bowl – Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Fresno State went 8-4 against a tough schedule that included Boise State, Nevada, Illinois, Ole Miss and Hawaii.  Unlike the Huskies, the Bulldogs are battle-tested.  Northern Illinois puts up a ton of points, but how they will do against a legitimate team remains to be seen.  The key for Fresno State will bed stopping NIU’s run attack.  Chad Spann averages 103 yards per gamed and has 20 touchdowns.
Fresno State 35, Northern Illinois 30

New Orleans Bowl – Troy vs Ohio
The Bobcats won seven of eight after starting 1-3 to earn this bid and put their 21st ranked defense up against Troy’s 25th ranked offense.  The Trojans love to pass the ball, leading to Corey Robinson’s 3,000+ yard season, but the main problem has been interceptions (15 in 12 games).  He can’t do that against Ohio’s defense and expect to win.
Ohio 24, Troy 20

St. Petersburg Bowl – Louisville vs Southern Mississippi
The Cardinals somehow got into a bowl game despite going 3-4 in the Big East, including a 26-0 shutout of Big East champion UConn. Southern Miss brings a high-flying offense averaging more than 200 rushing yards per gamed to Florida, but they will have to contend with Louisville’s 11th ranked defense.  This is a hard one to pick, but I’ll go with Louisville even though their schedule was soft.
Louisville 27, Southern Miss 24

Maaco Bowl – Boise State vs Utah
It’s amazing how far one can fall with one loss.  The Broncos went from likely Rose Bowl contenders to playing Dec. 22 because if two missed chip shot field goals.  Utah struggled down the stretch, losing to Notre Dame and nearly to BYU.  The Boise State defense won’t let this Utes offense budge, and the Broncos will score enough to win easily.
Boise State 37, Utah 9

Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego State vs Navy
For Navy, it’s going to bed run-run-run.  For San Diego State, expect pass-pass-pass.  The winner will be whichever defense can adjust and make the other offense get out of its comfort zone.  I think it will be easier for San Diego State to run than it will be for Navy to throw, so San Diego State, with a more difficult schedule, has the advantage.
San Diego State 20, Navy 14

Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii vs Tulsa
It’s always tough for the team that has to fly all the way out to Hawaii to play the Warriors, but this one looks to be especially tough on Tulsa for two reasons.  31 – Hawaii leads the nation in pass offense.  #2 – Tulsa can’t stop the pass (ranked 115th nationally).  If there is one thing the Golden Hurricane have going for them, it’s momentum.  They have won six straight, but it stops here.
Hawaii 43, Tulsa 36

Little Caesars Bowl – Florida International vs Toledo
There’s really not much to like about Toledo.  Their quarterback has more interceptions than touchdowns, and their leading rusher averages just 75 yards per game.  Florida International played a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule, and it paid off with a 6-2 Sun Belt record.  The Golden Panthers have two backs averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.  That’s the difference in this snoozer.
Florida International 13, Toledo 9

Independence Bowl – Air Force vs Georgia Tech
The top two rushing offenses in America clash in what promises to be one of the most exciting games on the bowl slate.  Both of these teams know how to defend the triple option since they do it every day in practice, but ironically, neither team has a great run defense.  The difference comes down to who can make plays on third and long.  Air Force’s pass offense sucks a little bit less.
Air Force 31, Georgia Tech 21

Champs Sports Bowl – West Virginia vs North Carolina State
A lot of people think West Virginia would have been the best Big East BCS representative.  As it is, they are stuck here and cannot take resurgent N.C. State lightly.  The Wolfpack’s Russell Wilson threw for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns this year but likely hasn’t seen a defense as good as the Mountaineers’ D.  Expect a low-scoring game with West Virginia making enough plays through the air to win.
West Virginia 24, North Carolina State 10

Insight Bowl – Missouri vs Iowa
Many in Iowa City are calling this season a disappointment following last year’s Orange Bowl championship, but the Hawkeyes have a chance to salvage the season against a very good Missouri team.  Iowa’s defense played well even in late season losses, and Kirk Ferentz will have the unit ready for Missouri’s four-headed running back monster. If Missouri wants to win, it will have to be through the air.
Iowa 33, Missouri 24

Military Bowl – East Carolina vs Maryland
These teams actually have two common opponents (Navy and N.C. State).  East Carolina’s defense is absolutely pathetic, as evident by the 76 points Navy put up in a route.  Maryland beat Navy and held the Midshipmen to 14 points.  The Pirates lost four of their final five while Maryland won four of its final six.  The game is being played in Washington D.C.  Anyone else seeing the trend here?
Maryland 49, East Carolina 20

Texas Bowl – Illinois vs Baylor
Two overachieving teams limp into Houston after not being picked bowl eligible before the season.  Illinois was thinking 9-3 with Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern and Fresno State as its final four, but finished just 1-3.  Baylor had the Big 12 South lead at 4-1 before losing its final three.  Robert Griffin should be able to make enough plays in this de facto home game.
Baylor 28, Illinois 22

Alamo Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Arizona
Both teams seem to have gotten the benefit of the doubt in the bowl selection process, despite Arizona finishing 0-4.  Oklahoma State brings the nation’s top offense to San Antonio, and that’s trouble for the wounded Wildcats, who gave up 40+ points against comparable offenses Stanford and Oregon.  The Cowboys’ defensive struggles will mean little if they can win this shootout.
Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 24

Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs SMU
For the first time ever, all three service academy schools are bowl eligible, so Army gets the game you know they’ll be excited for.  We know Army can run the ball, but on the other side, can their pass defense stop a very efficient Kyle Padron, who has thrown for more than 3,500 yards this season.  Army will put up a fight in its first bowl game since 1996, but SMU, playing in its home town of Dallas, will win.
SMU 30, Army 19

Pinstripe Bowl – Kansas State vs Syracuse
The first ever bowl game in Yankee Stadium will be the coldest bowl without a doubt.  The inaugural game features a contrast of styles.  Syracuse wins with tough defense, while Kansas State relies on its running game to win high-scoring games.  Four of Syracuse’s five losses came at home, which isn’t good considering this one is in the home state.  It’s a coin flip, but I’ll take Syracuse.  I’ll probably be wrong.
Syracuse 21, Kansas State 20

Music City Bowl – North Carolina vs Tennessee
As bad as the Volunteers were at times, it’s hard to think they are actually bowl eligible.  They very quietly won their final four games to get here at 6-6, though they didn’t play a team as good as UNC during that streak.  North Carolina could have been in a very different position if not for the early season slew of suspensions.  They are a better team now then they were at the start of the year.
North Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs Washington
The ‘Huskers blew the Big 12 Championship game for the second year in a row, and again find themselves in the Holiday Bowl against a weak opponent who they already beat by five touchdowns.  The rare rematch was not the Holiday Bowl’s choice, but it will be more of the same.  Nebraska racked up 383 rushing yards in the week three blowout, and they may get more in San Diego.
Nebraska 37, Washington 7

Meineke Car Care Bowl – South Florida vs Clemson
South Florida has all kinds of problems, starting with their anemic offense. B.J. Daniels has three more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9), and they can’t run the ball either.  Clemson has struggled offensively as well, but against a much tougher schedule, Kyle Parker and the Tigers have done enough to keep them in most games.  This will be a defensive struggle, and not a pretty one to watch.
Clemson 17, South Florida 6

Sun Bowl – Notre Dame vs Miami
The Sun Bowl gets very lucky.  With USC’s two-year bowl ban, the Sun gets the first choice of an at-large team, and Notre Dame is the obvious one.  With Miami struggling down the stretch, the ‘Canes fall into the Sun Bowl’s lap, creating a battle of program-rich powers with down seasons.  Notre Dame comes in hot, while Miami limps in, but I still think the Hurricanes are the better team.
Miami 35, Notre Dame 30

Liberty Bowl – Georgia vs UCF
On paper this may not look fair, but don’t pencil anything in just yet.  UCF won Conference USA with defense, holding nine f their 13 opponents under 20 points.  Georgia started 1-4 but went 5-2 after that, rolling along with an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of those seven games.  In fact, the Bulldogs have scored at least 41 in all six wins.  Offense prevails in this one.
Georgia 38, UCF 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl – South Carolina vs Florida State
The losers of their respective conference championships meet in Atlanta after bigger dreams were dashed not long ago. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to wipe away humiliation they suffered just two weeks ago when Auburn torched the in this same building.  Christian Ponder and the Seminoles will be able to score, but the inconsistent defense needs to keep South Carolina at bay.
Florida State 33, South Carolina 31

TicketCity Bowl – Northwestern vs Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have to be disappointed with their 7-5 season considering they hired Tommy Tuberville in the offseason to bring a defensive mindset to the program, as well as establish a balance between run and pass.  Instead, Texas Tech finished 114th in total defense and 81st in rushing offense.  Northwestern is becoming a bowl regular, but can they win one? They too have defensive issues.
Texas Tech 32, Northwestern 27

Outback Bowl – Florida vs Penn State
Urban Meyer will supposedly be coaching his final game Jan. 1.  We’ll see.  If he does leave for good, his last game could potentially be a win over the man with the most coaching wins – Joe Paterno.  Meyer’s defense is solid, but John Brantley is suspect, and Jeffrey Demps is having a down year.  Even so, emotions will be riding high in Meyer’s last game, and the Gators have home-field advantage.
Florida 20, Penn State 12

Capital One Bowl – Alabama vs Michigan State
Who would have thought Nick Saban’s team would finish fourth in their own division?  Better yet, who would have thought Michigan State would win 11 games?  The ‘Tide roll in with the nation’s sixth best defense and have faced Spartan-quality offenses before.  Michigan State’s defense will see one of its most dynamic offensive opponents of the season with Greg McElroy and Julio Jones.
Alabama 28, Michigan State 7

Gator Bowl – Mississippi State vs Michigan
Believe it or not, neither of these teams had any bad losses.  Mississippi State’s four losses came against SEC West opponents ranked in the top 25, while Michigan lost to three 11-1 teams, as well as Iowa and Penn State.  The Bulldogs held running quarterback Cam Newton to 70 rushing yards…not a bad total, in an early season loss.  They will have to deal with Denard Robinson this time.
Mississippi State 27, Michigan 20

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Middle Tennessee State vs Miami-Ohio
Both teams come in hot.  Miami-Ohio upset Northern Illinois to win the MAC, while Middle Tennessee won three straight to get bowl eligible.  However, this is the Redhawks’ game to lose.  The defense should be able to handle a Blue Raiders offense that doesn’t do much, and Thomas Merriweather could have a big day on the ground.  Miami-Ohio will make it six straight.
Miami-Ohio 35, Middle Tennessee State 14

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs Texas A&M
The Aggies finished 6-0 and landed here because of proximity.  LSU had a shot at the Sugar Bowl if not for a late season loss to Arkansas.  LSU has been all about defense and are doing it again this year despite facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.  You can bet they are looking forward to stopping Jerrod Johnson and an Aggie offense that was very good in the season’s second half.
LSU 27, Texas A&M 24

Compass Bowl – Pittsburgh vs Kentucky
Mike Hartline was the only thing keeping this game close.  He threw for 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns with only nine interceptions before being arrested, kicked off the team and effectively ending any hope Kentucky hd of keeping this game close.  The Panthers will get a big day from Dion Lewis against a soft UK rush defense, and Pitt should hold Kentucky’s offense in check without Hartline.
Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 10

Fight Hunger Bowl – Nevada vs Boston College
The Wolfpack may still have hangover worries because of the Boise State win, but Boston College is still one of the better teams they have played.  The interesting matchup here is Nevada’s 3rd ranked rush offense led by Vai Taua’s 120 yards per game against the top rush defense in the country.  For Nevada to be successful, they will have to stay balanced, which they can do against the Golden Eagles.
Nevada 27, Boston College 17

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU
This is the most difficult BCS game to pick, primarily because of what Wisconsin did offensively at the end of the year.  It’s scary to think the running game got better after John Clay got hurt, but that’s the truth.  The Badgers are in a rhythm right now, one that I can’t even see TCU breaking.  If TCU’s offense can move the ball, which I think they can, then it will be a fun game to watch.
Wisconsin 22, TCU 21

Fiesta Bowl – Connecticut vs Oklahoma
If you’re picking UConn, raise your hand.  If you’re raising your hand, stop lying.  Connecticut is one-dimensional on offense, though Oklahoma’s rush defense has been suspect.  Expect the Sooners to stack eight in the box and blitz a lot, forcing quick decisions from Zach Frazer.  If this game was played two weeks ago, Oklahoma wins.  But it’s in January.  I’m raising my hand.  Why not.
Connecticut 38, Oklahoma 35

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech
Remember when Virginia Tech lost to James Madison?  Me neither.  The Hokies have made everybody forget after winning 11 straight following an 0-2 start.  Stanford isn’t too shabby either.  It’s lone loss is to a team playing for a national title.  The Hokies have shown they can score, and Tyrod Taylor doesn’t make mistakes.  This should be another good one if both defenses come to play.
Virginia Tech 31, Stanford 24

Sugar Bowl – Ohio State vs Arkansas
A top 10 offense (Arkansas) vs a top 10 defense (Ohio State) is always a fun matchup.  Ohio State held a good Michigan offense to seven in the final game of the season.  Arkansas can score on good defenses though.  They put up 43 on Auburn, 41 on South Carolina and 31 on LSU.  I think Terrelle Pryor could have a big day against the Arkansas defense.  OSU plays in big games like this every year.
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 19

BCS National Championship – Auburn vs Oregon
The Ducks average better than 300 yards per game, while Auburn allows just 110.  Something has to give in what seems like an evenly matched national championship game.  Oregon’s weakness is its defensive front, which should allow Cam Newton time to do what he does.  However, no team is more dynamic or plays faster than the Ducks, which Auburn hasn’t seen.  Expect a shootout.
Oregon 45, Auburn 38

Conference records

ACC:  6-3
Big 12:  4-4
Big East:  5-1
Big Ten:  3-5
Conference USA:  1-5
Independents:  0-3
MAC:  2-2
Mountain West:  3-2
Pac 10:  1-3
SEC:  5-5
Sun Belt:  1-2
WAC:  4-0

Confidence

35)  Nebraska
34)  Pittsburgh
33)  Maryland
32)  Boise State
31)  Miami-Ohio
30)  BYU
29)  Alabama
28)  SMU
27)  West Virginia
26)  Oklahoma State
25)  Nevada
24)  Ohio State
23)  Clemson
22)  Air Force
21)  Iowa
20)  Ohio
19)  Hawaii
18)  Georgia
17)  Mississippi State
16)  San Diego State
15)  LSU
14)  Florida International
13)  Miami
12)  Baylor
11)  Fresno State
10)  Louisville
9)  Texas Tech
8)  Florida
7)  Florida State
6)  Virginia Tech
5)  Syracuse
4)  Oregon
3)  North Carolina
2)  Wisconsin
1)  Connecticut

Preseason college football bowl picks

The college football season begins tomorrow, and while Thursday can’t come fast enough for many players, coaches and fans, much of the country is wait because…well…I haven’t made my predictions yet.

Here they are.  The BCS games at least.

There is no tournament as you know, and that’s just fine.  Eyeballs are still on the screen, money is still flowing in and teams are still jumping conferences in search of that extra dollar.  The final season pre-realignment should be a dandy.

BCS National Championship
Florida (13-0) vs Oklahoma (13-0)

Are these the two most talented teams in the country?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Only time will tell.  Florida’s passing game is its biggest question mark.  Besides the obvious loss of Tim Tebow, the Gators return only one starting receiver from its 2010 Sugar Bowl championship team (Deonte Thompson), but a lot of unproven talent led by Carl Moore and Chris Rainey.  Florida’s schedule shapes up nicely.  They play just three games outside the state, two of which should be sleepers.  The game everybody is talking about is the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and by that point, Urban Meyer will have figured out a way to use his dynamic running back tandem and throw the ball effectively.  Alabama lost 13 defensive players to the draft, and has always been pretty vanilla offensively.  Florida is faster and more talented, and they will beat the Tide twice this year to reach the championship game 13-0.

Oklahoma knows it will likely have to run the table to get back to the championship game.  Landry Jones is back after playing nearly a full season filling in for the injured Sam Bradford.  Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray return to help an offense that should expect to show flashes of 2009 when they put up five straight 60+ point games.  The defense has just five returning starters.  If they fail to make it back to this game, it won’t be because they didn’t score enough points.  The non-conference schedule is difficult, but the Sooners should take care of Florida State in Norman, and should finish nonconference play without a blemish if they don’t overlook a trip to Cincinnati.  The game everybody wants to see is the Red River Shootout.  Spoiler alert: don’t bet on Texas.  On the same day Florida soars by Alabama, Oklahoma will do the same to Texas.  Last year Bradford got hurt in the first quarter, and the Sooners nearly won the game anyway.  This time Texas is the team without its Heisman candidate.  With a more experienced Jones running the show, Bob Stoops will find ways to score on a good Texas defense.  After that, the Sooners should roll through the rest of the schedule until they meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.  Something tells me Oklahoma won’t want Nebraska walking away with the final league championship game banner before bolting for the Big Ten.

Rose Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs Oregon State (8-4)

The Buckeyes have become a BCS staple, and that won’t change this season.  Terrelle Pryor is a preseason Heisman pick, and the Buckeyes return 10 starters on offense.  The experience should help make the offense better, especially the 106th ranked passing attack.  Defensively, don’t expect Ohio State to fall off.  Led by All American defensive end Cameron Heyward, Ohio State will be making life miserable for Big Ten opponents again.  I’m picking them to lose either at Wisconsin or at Iowa, but the slip shouldn’t keep them from another Big Ten championship and another Rose Bowl appearance.

The Oregon State pick may surprise you.  It may surprise Dennis Dodd too, who has the Beavers eighth in his preseason standings.  Honestly, the most talented team in the conference cannot play in this game, which is why I’m picking the team I think will finish second.  This race is going to be tight all year, and as we learned last year, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between one and eight.  Jacquizz and James Rodgers are outstanding playmakers who will make life much easier for first year starter Ryan Katz.  The defense will be solid with nine returning starters, as long as they can stop the pass.  Oregon State has a brutal schedule.  They are the only team in the country to play all 12 games against either BCS opponents or teams that made BCS bowl games in 2010.  They go to TCU and Boise State before Pac 10 play begins, and while they will likely lose both, they will be battle tested before conference play.  They have USC and Oregon at home, and without Jeremiah Masoli and all the offseason problems the Ducks had, I think the Beavers will take the Civil War.  It will be a 7-2 finish for Oregon State, which will be good enough to finish ahead of the eight teams they need to in order to make this game.

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)

The Hokies get the first chance of any team to really put its mark on 2010 when it opens in the nation’s capital against Boise State.  After that, it’s a coin toss for Frank Beamer’s squad as it plays out the ACC schedule that has been as predictable as a Toyota brake or a Pittsburgh Pirate bullpen outing.  The offense, yes offense, will be the ones carrying this team. Beamer will have to get used to pitch and catch style football with Ryan Williams and a healthy Darren Evans in the backfield.  Tyrod Taylor is a senior now with plenty of experience and a plethora of receivers to throw to.  The defense may be shaky while the newcomers fill in, but Beamer is a defensive-minded coach, so don’t bet against his D.  I have the Hokies with two losses.  Boise State will not be one of them.

Pittsburgh may seem like the most obvious major college champion, and they are, but the question is where do they go?  The last Big East team to play in the Orange Bowl got waxed (by the Hokies), and the committee has thought twice about putting little sister in the game ever since.  A heisman-type running back leads an offense that may be better than what they showed against the Bearcats in the regular season finale.  The defense returns six, but the suspect unit could pose problems against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Miami and Utah.  Dave Wannstedt’s crew is itching for a BCS berth after coming up just short last year, and they will get it.  There are four games to look out for, and they will lose two of them: at Utah, Miami, at Notre Dame, at Cincinnati.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (11-2) vs Boise State (11-1)

The Sugar Bowl’s replacement pick will be Alabama, who will be happy to see Urban Meyer’s Gators gone after Florida trucks them in Atlanta in December.  Alabama will have too hard a time replacing 13 defensive players to be the same type of powerhouse it was in 2009.  More will be expected of Greg McElroy, who has yet to prove he can actually carry a team despite his career record.  Nevertheless, this is still a very good and very dangerous team.  The schedule is not all that difficult outside of Florida, so the Tide should be able to handle all non-Urban Meyer-coached teams pretty easily.  This may be deja vü – they were beaten by a mid-major in 2008.

That mid-major shouldn’t be considered a mid-major any longer.  Boise State is for real, and they will show it this season.  Only one, yes one, starter from either side of the ball is gone, and a top Heisman contender in Kellen Moore returns to lead the Broncos in one of the most anticipated seasons in school history.  An undefeated season may mean a trip to Glendale for the national championship game, but it won’t happen.  I have the Broncos losing to Virginia Tech in the opener at RFK.  Why?  Because Boise has the same team they had last year, and that team gave up way too many points in a very weak conference.  The Virginia Tech offense is experienced and lethal, which is why I think the Hokies will win in a shootout.  After the Monday night setback, Boise State will run the table to earn its third BCS trip in four years.

Fiesta Bowl
Texas (11-1) vs TCU (11-1)

If there was any positive during an otherwise disgusting national championship performance by the Longhorns, it was the second half play of now-starter Garrett Gilbert.  Although he is no McCoy, Gilbert’s gameday experience will help him.  The question is, will his offensive line?  Relatively unproven tackles will have to fend off quick defensive ends, and Gilbert may see his share of turf time.  The schedule is an interesting one, as Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders host the ‘Horns in week three.  Last time Texas visited Lubbock, Michael Crabtree whipped the Raider faithful into a frenzy.  Don’t think the Longhorns have short memories.  The Red River Shootout is always the game of the year in the conference, and this year’s game is no exception.  It’s the only game I have Texas losing, simply because Oklahoma is the only team that can shred an otherwise stellar secondary.  One other game to look out for – Texas travels to Lincoln Oct. 16 for a rematch with Nebraska.  After a bye, I like the ‘Horns.

TCU still has a bitter taste in its mouth after the offense failed to show up in this game last year.  The Fiesta Bowl committee will be hesitant to take them, but in the end won’t pass up the opportunity to match these Texas teams together in a game fans have wanted to see since TCU climbed into the national spotlight.  Andy Dalton returns with a number of 400 yard receivers to spread the ball around to.  Four offensive line starters return to help two new running backs get into the mix, and seven starters return on the defensive unit that was one of the best in the country.  TCU opens with pesky Oregon State in the Jerry Dome, then it’s a relatively light load until a Nov. 6 matchup at Utah.  That’s the only time the Horned Frogs will fall this season, leaving them out of the national championship picture but giving them their second straight BCS appearance.

Can Nebraska, Missouri really say no?

Now that the invitations are out there, the waiting game begins.

You probably know by now that Nebraska, Missouri, Notre Dame and Rutgers have been invited by the Big Ten to join the conference, or so says Sports Radio 810.  The conference has done its homework and knows that these are the four most attractive schools that may realistically consider the offer.  This is the order that I would assume the Big Ten would want these teams:

1)  Notre Dame – The football independent is already in the geographic area, but the name itself would bring in a lot more revenue, especially if the NBC contract stays intact. Academics are also excellent.

2)  Rutgers – Though the football program is not on the same level with Notre Dame or Nebraska, Rutgers to the Big Ten would put the conference in direct competition with the much less-publicized Big East in the nation’s largest market.

3)  Missouri - A decent football program has perked over the past few years, and the conference would probe into both St. Louis and Kansas City markets.  Missouri has very good overall athletics.

4)  Nebraska – The football program is exactly what the Big Ten wants, and it would get a lot of eyeballs.  However, Lincoln is not in a good place geographically, academics are below Big Ten standards and overall athletics are below average.

Forget Notre Dame.  Although it would be a dream for NBC to keep its contract with the Irish if it were to jump to the Big Ten, it simply won’t happen.  Notre Dame has also developed several rivalries that would no longer be played every year.

Rutgers probably will not leave the Big East.  The school’s football program has become competitive in a relatively balanced conference, and the location is good for that conference as well.

That leaves Missouri and Nebraska.  The alternative to joining the Big East may be a partnership with the Pac 10, which would increase television time and revenue.  However, joining the Big Ten will do this too, but do a lot more with it.

If either the ‘Huskers or the Tigers join the Big Ten, they will more than double their television revenue because the Big Ten has balanced revenue, unlike the Big 12.  In the Big 12, Texas is gobbling up most of the money because it is the best athletic school and grabs the most TV time.  The Big Ten television contracts guarantee set revenue, which is roughly $22 million per school.  Missouri currently gets $9 million from its Big 12 TV contracts.

Also, the Big Ten alone grabs about 30 percent of televisions in the country.  According to CBS, a partnership with the Pac 10 would only mean 40 percent of televisions.  That’s only 10 percent more than the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has 11 teams.  The Big 12 and Pac 10 have twice as many, meaning less TV time.  So just how influential is this Big Ten Network?  Read about how this newspaper portrays it.  The paper is a Columbia, Mo. paper by the way.

Academically, the Big Ten is on a whole different level than the Big 12.  How different?  Consider that the U.S. News and World Report ranks five Big Ten schools before ranking the first Big 12 school in its 2010 Best Educational Colleges list.  Joining this conference would make any Big 12 school’s academics appear more prestigious.

While Nebraska does not have a main rival in the Big Ten, yearly football games with Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin or volleyball games with Penn State would be quite a treat.  Missouri and Illinois play in almost every sport right now.  Imagine bringing the intensity of that border battle into conference play.  Missouri’s rivalry with Kansas is a mere blip on the college sports rivalry radar and would not be missed.  In fact, the biggest sporting event that Missouri and Nebraska circle on the calendars every year is the football game against each other, which they could still play if both schools act with reason and join the Big Ten.

Assuming both schools have actually been invited, give me one reason why either school wouldn’t do it?

Mid-majors making tourney fun

Through the first round (and part of the second), the mid-major conference teams are proving why eight at-large bids was not a joke.  The small schools are making the 2010 version of March Madness fun to watch.  Eleven mid-majors advanced to round two, six beating power conference opponents to do so.  St. Mary’s just advanced to the sweet sixteen, and a second mid-major will join them once Butler/Murray State goes final.

Meanwhile, here’s a look at how the major conferences are doing:

ACC:  4-2
Big 12:  5-2
Big East:  4-5 (includes Villanova loss)
Big Ten:  4-1
Pac 10:  2-0
SEC:  2-2

First thoughts on the bracket

I haven’t really looked closely at the bracket and probably won’t do so until Tuesday.  But after watching the Selection Show, here are my first thoughts:

- Florida over Virginia Tech?  That may be the biggest problem with this bracket.  Virginia Tech had four fewer losses, finished 10-6 in a tougher conference and had 23 wins.  Not only is Florida in, but they are a 10 seed.

- Duke gets the easy path.  Somehow the committee thought that a five-loss Duke team was more justified to play in an easy region than a four-loss Syracuse.  Villanova, Baylor and Purdue make up the rest of the top four in the South.

- Tennessee and San Diego State both get snubbed.  The Aztecs won the difficult Mountain West, beating New Mexico and UNLV along the way, yet somehow ended up with an 11 seed.  The Vols beat two one seeds, yet end up with a 6 seed instead of a 3 or 4.  Not only are they both lower than they should be, they have to play each other.

- Villanova has lost five of its past seven including being dumped in its first Big East tournament game, yet the ‘Cats somehow ended up with a 2 seed.

- Temple and Cornell should not have to play each other.  Cornell had a strong nonconference schedule and lost just four games.  Temple just won the Atlantic 10.

Check back later in the week if you want to copy my bracket.

Conference tournament predictions

It’s Championship Week, and my staff had so much fun making picks all year.  Now they get a bonus by having the opportunity to fill out the major conference tournament brackets.  The point system is as follows:

Big East opening round win = .5
First round win = 1
Quarterfinal win = 2
Semifinal win = 3
Championship win = 4

Click on the corresponding tournament under the person’s name to see his or her picks for that conference.

Jaryd’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Kyle’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Molly’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Blake’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Carl’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Brendan’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Imagine “BCS Madness” in basketball

Every day brings about an argument with my roommates about sports.  These days, a visitor would likely hear me quibbling with one of them over the number of Big East teams that deserve to be dancing in March.  During the college football season, the arguments predictably led to a debate over the current playoff system.

Which is why my eyes lit up when my roommate suggested what very few, if any, had ever thought of.

“What if college basketball used the BCS system?” he asked.

Hmm…what if?

I should say right now that I love March Madness.  The tournament is a lot of fun, and I would never want to see it go away.  But before you dismiss the following idea, consider the proposal below.

Let’s say college basketball did use the BCS system.  There would be no tournament.  The two best teams out of 347 Division 1 teams would play for the national championship.  As for the rest?  The next 32 could play in the NIT perhaps.  Or maybe I develop “bowl” games for the 62 next-best.  Either way, it’s not important.  What is important is how college basketball would determine its national champion.

My roommate and I agree that if the BCS is used, it would have to triple the field to six eligible teams because there are about three times as many D1 basketball schools (347) as FBS football schools (120).  So six teams make the BCS championship, and the champion is determined as follows:

#6 at #3 (winner plays at #2)
#5 at #4 (winner plays at #1)

Winner of 1 vs 4/5 plays winner of 2 vs 3/6 on a neutral court for the title.

Easy enough.

Now on to how to determine the six eligible teams.

The BCS uses the Coaches Poll, Harris Poll and average of six BCS computers to determine the football rankings.  In college basketball, there is a Coaches Poll but not a Harris Poll.  I suggest replacing Harris with RPI.  Though I think the AP Poll is more valid than the Coaches Poll, using both AP and Coaches Polls would not be good because the top six are usually identical.

Four of the six BCS computers also rank college basketball teams (Anderson & Hester and Richard Billingsley do not), so I can use the same computer methods. Ken Pomeroy will be used as a fifth computer.  Because there are only five computers, I will throw out only the median ranking, rather than the highest and/or lowest.

So who would be eligible to play for a national championship right now?

The top six in the Coaches Poll are Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova, Purdue, Syracuse and Duke.

The RPI reads Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova.

All five computers have Kansas ranked #1.  Since both the Coaches and RPI also have the Jayhawks #1, it’s easy to give them the #1 seed in the basketball BCS.  Their average is 1.

Kentucky does not do too well in the computer rankings.  Only the Colley Matrix has the Wildcats #2.  The median is 4 and the average is 4.5.  Averaging together with the Coaches and RPI gives them a 3.17.

Pomeroy’s computer is going to bring Villanova down.  The Wildcats are ranked #15 in that computer, bring the computer average to 5.75 and the overall average to 4.92.

Purdue got a big win over Ohio State Wednesday, but they are still a consistent 6 in all but one computer, giving them a 5.75 computer average.  Overall, the Boilermakers are a 6.25 because of their low RPI.

Syracuse has a huge game with Georgetown tonight that could alter the rankings, but for now, the Orange have a computer average of 3.25 and an overall average of 4.08.

Duke is ranked sixth in the Coaches Poll but has the #2 RPI.  The Blue Devils have a computer average of 4.5 and an overall average of 4.17.

Outside the top six, West Virginia seems to be the most likely contender.  However, the computers spit out an average of 8.67 for the Mountaineers, giving them an overall average of 6.89.  Purdue’s 6.25 barely beats West Virginia for the sixth spot.

The only other team in consideration is Kansas State.  The Wildcats’ computer average is 9.25, pulling the overall average down to 7.75.

So the six teams in the tournament happen to be the top six in the Coaches Poll.  The matchups are as follows:

(6) Purdue at (3) Syracuse
(5) Villanova at (4) Duke

Purdue/Syracuse at (2) Kentucky
Villanova/Duke at (1) Kansas

Championship on neutral court

I know you are lying if you say you would be even the slightest bit intrigued by this.  Imagine how West Virginia fans would feel.  The Mountaineers are the TCU of college basketball.  Then again, West Virginia did lose to Purdue, who has the sixth and final spot.

How fun would it be to watch college basketball every night, knowing that a loss by any of the top six could make way for #7 or #8 to slide up into the field.

Consider reducing the field to four teams.  Then Villanova, ranked #3 in the Coaches Poll, would be out.

Again, this is purely just for fun.  Everyone imagines what it would be like if college football used college basketball’s system.

Thank you, roomie, for making me imagine the opposite.  Even for just one day.

Bubble growing with one month to go

Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday.  To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up.  Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day.  For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.”  In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.

At large locks:

ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland

Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier

Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas

Conference USA (1)
UAB

Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV

SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s

This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs.  Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.

1)  Rhode Island Rams – That’s right.  The strongest bubble team is the Rams.  With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses.  The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.

2)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses.  They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.

3)  Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s.  The Tigers’ strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI.  They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.

4)  Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers.  They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4.  They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference.  The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.

5)  Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January.  Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M.  The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.

6)  Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them.  However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.

7)  Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth.  Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it.  They are tied for sixth in the ACC.

8)  Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’ worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in.  The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44.  The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.

9)  Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State.  Four of the Rebels’ seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI.  The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.

10)  Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout.  Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time.  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.

11)  Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27.  Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins.  Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.

On the outside looking in:

Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina

List of disappointing teams growing

Maybe my standards are too high.  After all, when a team has two of the top six recruits in the country and returns four of its top five starters from a year ago, they should be good.  Really good.  But Texas, has been anything but impressive lately after losing their third game in four tries.  In fact, the last time I was wowed by the Longhorns was 2009.  They’ve played poorly in all of their Big 12 games so far and still go to Norman, Stillwater, College Station, Waco and Columbia, along with a game against Kansas.

Of course, you can’t talk disappointment without bringing up the defending national champion Tar Heels.  Sure they lost everyone from the national championship team, but a great recruiting class and a talented group of players-in-waiting led by Deon Thompson should not have seven losses in January.

The Big East in general has been disappointing, thanks in large part to the poor performances of Louisville and Connecticut.  The Huskies have a healthy Jerome Dyson, as well as returners Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson, but they have five Big East losses and haven’t played West Virginia, Syracuse or Villanova yet.  Meanwhile, Louisville, last year’s number one overall seed, has eight losses, including four of its past five in Big East play despite the expectation to contend for a Big East title with Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa.

Don’t forget about the Pac 10, namely Washington.  There are high school conferences in Ohio that could send more teams to the dance than the Pac 10, and the Huskies are under .500 in the league and in the bottom half of the conference.

I can keep going.  Oklahoma (12-9) was supposed to contend in the Big 12.  I guess that’s not likely after a 17 point blowout loss at previously winless Nebraska.  Michigan was supposed to do the same in the Big Ten, but the Wolverines have double-digit losses and a 4-5 conference record.

As the season progresses, so does the list of disappointments.  It’s a wide open race this year with no team truly establishing themselves as “dominant.”  It’s also good news for these disappointments that may still end up in the tournament.

Turner gives Buckeyes bracket boost

IMPORTANT: This is based on games played through Jan. 19.  If the tournament started Jan. 20, this is what my bracket would look like.

Last four in:  Arizona State, Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Maryland
First four out:  Virginia Tech, Marquette, Oklahoma State, San Diego State

Kentucky remains #1 overall.  They are now the last remaining unbeaten team in division 1.

Texas is still a one seed despite the loss to Kansas State.  The Longhorns have a better strength of schedule than Kansas, as well as a more legitimate loss.

Despite Kansas State’s win over Texas, the schedule, as well as the loss to unranked Missouri, are not impressive enough to push them into a #2 spot yet.

Purdue takes another dip after the Northwestern loss, though they rebounded nicely with a tough win at Illinois.

Georgia Tech jumps to a #5 seed.  The Yellow Jackets now have wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson in the ACC.  Also making big jumps this week were Ohio State and Vanderbilt.

Now in as conference champions are Campbell and Western Kentucky, replacing East Tennessee State and Denver.

Major conference breakdown:

ACC:  7
Big 12:  6
Big East:  6
SEC: 5
Big Ten:  4
Pac 10:  2

See the complete bracket here