Picking all 35 bowl games

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Another bowl season is upon us, and it’s time for me to make my picks so I have a reason to watch a number of games I would otherwise not care about.

New Mexico Bowl – BYU vs UTEP
A disastrous start to the season for BYU was saved by winning five of six before nearly pulling off an upset at Utah.  The Cougars saved their season and are playing their best ball now, while UTEP is headed in the opposite direction.  The Miners lost five of six after starting 5-1.  The records are even, but these are not evenly matched teams.
BYU 45, UTEP 14

Humanitarian Bowl – Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Fresno State went 8-4 against a tough schedule that included Boise State, Nevada, Illinois, Ole Miss and Hawaii.  Unlike the Huskies, the Bulldogs are battle-tested.  Northern Illinois puts up a ton of points, but how they will do against a legitimate team remains to be seen.  The key for Fresno State will bed stopping NIU’s run attack.  Chad Spann averages 103 yards per gamed and has 20 touchdowns.
Fresno State 35, Northern Illinois 30

New Orleans Bowl – Troy vs Ohio
The Bobcats won seven of eight after starting 1-3 to earn this bid and put their 21st ranked defense up against Troy’s 25th ranked offense.  The Trojans love to pass the ball, leading to Corey Robinson’s 3,000+ yard season, but the main problem has been interceptions (15 in 12 games).  He can’t do that against Ohio’s defense and expect to win.
Ohio 24, Troy 20

St. Petersburg Bowl – Louisville vs Southern Mississippi
The Cardinals somehow got into a bowl game despite going 3-4 in the Big East, including a 26-0 shutout of Big East champion UConn. Southern Miss brings a high-flying offense averaging more than 200 rushing yards per gamed to Florida, but they will have to contend with Louisville’s 11th ranked defense.  This is a hard one to pick, but I’ll go with Louisville even though their schedule was soft.
Louisville 27, Southern Miss 24

Maaco Bowl – Boise State vs Utah
It’s amazing how far one can fall with one loss.  The Broncos went from likely Rose Bowl contenders to playing Dec. 22 because if two missed chip shot field goals.  Utah struggled down the stretch, losing to Notre Dame and nearly to BYU.  The Boise State defense won’t let this Utes offense budge, and the Broncos will score enough to win easily.
Boise State 37, Utah 9

Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego State vs Navy
For Navy, it’s going to bed run-run-run.  For San Diego State, expect pass-pass-pass.  The winner will be whichever defense can adjust and make the other offense get out of its comfort zone.  I think it will be easier for San Diego State to run than it will be for Navy to throw, so San Diego State, with a more difficult schedule, has the advantage.
San Diego State 20, Navy 14

Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii vs Tulsa
It’s always tough for the team that has to fly all the way out to Hawaii to play the Warriors, but this one looks to be especially tough on Tulsa for two reasons.  31 – Hawaii leads the nation in pass offense.  #2 – Tulsa can’t stop the pass (ranked 115th nationally).  If there is one thing the Golden Hurricane have going for them, it’s momentum.  They have won six straight, but it stops here.
Hawaii 43, Tulsa 36

Little Caesars Bowl – Florida International vs Toledo
There’s really not much to like about Toledo.  Their quarterback has more interceptions than touchdowns, and their leading rusher averages just 75 yards per game.  Florida International played a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule, and it paid off with a 6-2 Sun Belt record.  The Golden Panthers have two backs averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.  That’s the difference in this snoozer.
Florida International 13, Toledo 9

Independence Bowl – Air Force vs Georgia Tech
The top two rushing offenses in America clash in what promises to be one of the most exciting games on the bowl slate.  Both of these teams know how to defend the triple option since they do it every day in practice, but ironically, neither team has a great run defense.  The difference comes down to who can make plays on third and long.  Air Force’s pass offense sucks a little bit less.
Air Force 31, Georgia Tech 21

Champs Sports Bowl – West Virginia vs North Carolina State
A lot of people think West Virginia would have been the best Big East BCS representative.  As it is, they are stuck here and cannot take resurgent N.C. State lightly.  The Wolfpack’s Russell Wilson threw for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns this year but likely hasn’t seen a defense as good as the Mountaineers’D.  Expect a low-scoring game with West Virginia making enough plays through the air to win.
West Virginia 24, North Carolina State 10

Insight Bowl – Missouri vs Iowa
Many in Iowa City are calling this season a disappointment following last year’s Orange Bowl championship, but the Hawkeyes have a chance to salvage the season against a very good Missouri team.  Iowa’s defense played well even in late season losses, and Kirk Ferentz will have the unit ready for Missouri’s four-headed running back monster. If Missouri wants to win, it will have to be through the air.
Iowa 33, Missouri 24

Military Bowl – East Carolina vs Maryland
These teams actually have two common opponents (Navy and N.C. State).  East Carolina’s defense is absolutely pathetic, as evident by the 76 points Navy put up in a route.  Maryland beat Navy and held the Midshipmen to 14 points.  The Pirates lost four of their final five while Maryland won four of its final six.  The game is being played in Washington D.C.  Anyone else seeing the trend here?
Maryland 49, East Carolina 20

Texas Bowl – Illinois vs Baylor
Two overachieving teams limp into Houston after not being picked bowl eligible before the season.  Illinois was thinking 9-3 with Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern and Fresno State as its final four, but finished just 1-3.  Baylor had the Big 12 South lead at 4-1 before losing its final three.  Robert Griffin should be able to make enough plays in this de facto home game.
Baylor 28, Illinois 22

Alamo Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Arizona
Both teams seem to have gotten the benefit of the doubt in the bowl selection process, despite Arizona finishing 0-4.  Oklahoma State brings the nation’s top offense to San Antonio, and that’s trouble for the wounded Wildcats, who gave up 40+ points against comparable offenses Stanford and Oregon.  The Cowboys’defensive struggles will mean little if they can win this shootout.
Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 24

Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs SMU
For the first time ever, all three service academy schools are bowl eligible, so Army gets the game you know they’ll be excited for.  We know Army can run the ball, but on the other side, can their pass defense stop a very efficient Kyle Padron, who has thrown for more than 3,500 yards this season.  Army will put up a fight in its first bowl game since 1996, but SMU, playing in its home town of Dallas, will win.
SMU 30, Army 19

Pinstripe Bowl – Kansas State vs Syracuse
The first ever bowl game in Yankee Stadium will be the coldest bowl without a doubt.  The inaugural game features a contrast of styles.  Syracuse wins with tough defense, while Kansas State relies on its running game to win high-scoring games.  Four of Syracuse’s five losses came at home, which isn’t good considering this one is in the home state.  It’s a coin flip, but I’ll take Syracuse.  I’ll probably be wrong.
Syracuse 21, Kansas State 20

Music City Bowl – North Carolina vs Tennessee
As bad as the Volunteers were at times, it’s hard to think they are actually bowl eligible.  They very quietly won their final four games to get here at 6-6, though they didn’t play a team as good as UNC during that streak.  North Carolina could have been in a very different position if not for the early season slew of suspensions.  They are a better team now then they were at the start of the year.
North Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs Washington
The ‘Huskers blew the Big 12 Championship game for the second year in a row, and again find themselves in the Holiday Bowl against a weak opponent who they already beat by five touchdowns.  The rare rematch was not the Holiday Bowl’s choice, but it will be more of the same.  Nebraska racked up 383 rushing yards in the week three blowout, and they may get more in San Diego.
Nebraska 37, Washington 7

Meineke Car Care Bowl – South Florida vs Clemson
South Florida has all kinds of problems, starting with their anemic offense. B.J. Daniels has three more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9), and they can’t run the ball either.  Clemson has struggled offensively as well, but against a much tougher schedule, Kyle Parker and the Tigers have done enough to keep them in most games.  This will be a defensive struggle, and not a pretty one to watch.
Clemson 17, South Florida 6

Sun Bowl – Notre Dame vs Miami
The Sun Bowl gets very lucky.  With USC’s two-year bowl ban, the Sun gets the first choice of an at-large team, and Notre Dame is the obvious one.  With Miami struggling down the stretch, the ‘Canes fall into the Sun Bowl’s lap, creating a battle of program-rich powers with down seasons.  Notre Dame comes in hot, while Miami limps in, but I still think the Hurricanes are the better team.
Miami 35, Notre Dame 30

Liberty Bowl – Georgia vs UCF
On paper this may not look fair, but don’t pencil anything in just yet.  UCF won Conference USA with defense, holding nine f their 13 opponents under 20 points.  Georgia started 1-4 but went 5-2 after that, rolling along with an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of those seven games.  In fact, the Bulldogs have scored at least 41 in all six wins.  Offense prevails in this one.
Georgia 38, UCF 31

Chick-fil-A Bowl – South Carolina vs Florida State
The losers of their respective conference championships meet in Atlanta after bigger dreams were dashed not long ago. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to wipe away humiliation they suffered just two weeks ago when Auburn torched the in this same building.  Christian Ponder and the Seminoles will be able to score, but the inconsistent defense needs to keep South Carolina at bay.
Florida State 33, South Carolina 31

TicketCity Bowl – Northwestern vs Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have to be disappointed with their 7-5 season considering they hired Tommy Tuberville in the offseason to bring a defensive mindset to the program, as well as establish a balance between run and pass.  Instead, Texas Tech finished 114th in total defense and 81st in rushing offense.  Northwestern is becoming a bowl regular, but can they win one? They too have defensive issues.
Texas Tech 32, Northwestern 27

Outback Bowl – Florida vs Penn State
Urban Meyer will supposedly be coaching his final game Jan. 1.  We’ll see.  If he does leave for good, his last game could potentially be a win over the man with the most coaching wins – Joe Paterno.  Meyer’s defense is solid, but John Brantley is suspect, and Jeffrey Demps is having a down year.  Even so, emotions will be riding high in Meyer’s last game, and the Gators have home-field advantage.
Florida 20, Penn State 12

Capital One Bowl – Alabama vs Michigan State
Who would have thought Nick Saban’s team would finish fourth in their own division?  Better yet, who would have thought Michigan State would win 11 games?  The ‘Tide roll in with the nation’s sixth best defense and have faced Spartan-quality offenses before.  Michigan State’s defense will see one of its most dynamic offensive opponents of the season with Greg McElroy and Julio Jones.
Alabama 28, Michigan State 7

Gator Bowl – Mississippi State vs Michigan
Believe it or not, neither of these teams had any bad losses.  Mississippi State’s four losses came against SEC West opponents ranked in the top 25, while Michigan lost to three 11-1 teams, as well as Iowa and Penn State.  The Bulldogs held running quarterback Cam Newton to 70 rushing yards…not a bad total, in an early season loss.  They will have to deal with Denard Robinson this time.
Mississippi State 27, Michigan 20

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Middle Tennessee State vs Miami-Ohio
Both teams come in hot.  Miami-Ohio upset Northern Illinois to win the MAC, while Middle Tennessee won three straight to get bowl eligible.  However, this is the Redhawks’game to lose.  The defense should be able to handle a Blue Raiders offense that doesn’t do much, and Thomas Merriweather could have a big day on the ground.  Miami-Ohio will make it six straight.
Miami-Ohio 35, Middle Tennessee State 14

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs Texas A&M
The Aggies finished 6-0 and landed here because of proximity.  LSU had a shot at the Sugar Bowl if not for a late season loss to Arkansas.  LSU has been all about defense and are doing it again this year despite facing one of the nation’s toughest schedules.  You can bet they are looking forward to stopping Jerrod Johnson and an Aggie offense that was very good in the season’s second half.
LSU 27, Texas A&M 24

Compass Bowl – Pittsburgh vs Kentucky
Mike Hartline was the only thing keeping this game close.  He threw for 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns with only nine interceptions before being arrested, kicked off the team and effectively ending any hope Kentucky hd of keeping this game close.  The Panthers will get a big day from Dion Lewis against a soft UK rush defense, and Pitt should hold Kentucky’s offense in check without Hartline.
Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 10

Fight Hunger Bowl – Nevada vs Boston College
The Wolfpack may still have hangover worries because of the Boise State win, but Boston College is still one of the better teams they have played.  The interesting matchup here is Nevada’s 3rd ranked rush offense led by Vai Taua’s 120 yards per game against the top rush defense in the country.  For Nevada to be successful, they will have to stay balanced, which they can do against the Golden Eagles.
Nevada 27, Boston College 17

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU
This is the most difficult BCS game to pick, primarily because of what Wisconsin did offensively at the end of the year.  It’s scary to think the running game got better after John Clay got hurt, but that’s the truth.  The Badgers are in a rhythm right now, one that I can’t even see TCU breaking.  If TCU’s offense can move the ball, which I think they can, then it will be a fun game to watch.
Wisconsin 22, TCU 21

Fiesta Bowl – Connecticut vs Oklahoma
If you’re picking UConn, raise your hand.  If you’re raising your hand, stop lying.  Connecticut is one-dimensional on offense, though Oklahoma’s rush defense has been suspect.  Expect the Sooners to stack eight in the box and blitz a lot, forcing quick decisions from Zach Frazer.  If this game was played two weeks ago, Oklahoma wins.  But it’s in January.  I’m raising my hand.  Why not.
Connecticut 38, Oklahoma 35

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech
Remember when Virginia Tech lost to James Madison?  Me neither.  The Hokies have made everybody forget after winning 11 straight following an 0-2 start.  Stanford isn’t too shabby either.  It’s lone loss is to a team playing for a national title.  The Hokies have shown they can score, and Tyrod Taylor doesn’t make mistakes.  This should be another good one if both defenses come to play.
Virginia Tech 31, Stanford 24

Sugar Bowl – Ohio State vs Arkansas
A top 10 offense (Arkansas) vs a top 10 defense (Ohio State) is always a fun matchup.  Ohio State held a good Michigan offense to seven in the final game of the season.  Arkansas can score on good defenses though.  They put up 43 on Auburn, 41 on South Carolina and 31 on LSU.  I think Terrelle Pryor could have a big day against the Arkansas defense.  OSU plays in big games like this every year.
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 19

BCS National Championship – Auburn vs Oregon
The Ducks average better than 300 yards per game, while Auburn allows just 110.  Something has to give in what seems like an evenly matched national championship game.  Oregon’s weakness is its defensive front, which should allow Cam Newton time to do what he does.  However, no team is more dynamic or plays faster than the Ducks, which Auburn hasn’t seen.  Expect a shootout.
Oregon 45, Auburn 38

Conference records

ACC:  6-3
Big 12:  4-4
Big East:  5-1
Big Ten:  3-5
Conference USA:  1-5
Independents:  0-3
MAC:  2-2
Mountain West:  3-2
Pac 10:  1-3
SEC:  5-5
Sun Belt:  1-2
WAC:  4-0

Confidence

35)  Nebraska
34)  Pittsburgh
33)  Maryland
32)  Boise State
31)  Miami-Ohio
30)  BYU
29)  Alabama
28)  SMU
27)  West Virginia
26)  Oklahoma State
25)  Nevada
24)  Ohio State
23)  Clemson
22)  Air Force
21)  Iowa
20)  Ohio
19)  Hawaii
18)  Georgia
17)  Mississippi State
16)  San Diego State
15)  LSU
14)  Florida International
13)  Miami
12)  Baylor
11)  Fresno State
10)  Louisville
9)  Texas Tech
8)  Florida
7)  Florida State
6)  Virginia Tech
5)  Syracuse
4)  Oregon
3)  North Carolina
2)  Wisconsin
1)  Connecticut

Broncos earn title spot, #1 ranking

After 15 hours of driving, a delayed flights , a missed connection, a hurricane, terrible airport food and cab trouble, I’m finally in a hotel room and begrudgingly hoping my travel troubles are through (knock on wood).  As tempting as it is to ram my head through this moldy hotel drywall or watch another Navy/Maryland fumblefest, I’ve decided that I owe it to you to keep to my promise and deliver my weekly rankings.

There’s no better place to start than with the weekend’s final game, which made every national title contender cringe.  Any program with a remote shot of making the BCS national championship took a huge hit Monday night when Kellen Moore took a BCS bombshell and dropped it perfectly into the hands of Austin Pettis in the closing moments against Virginia Tech.  That sealed a 33-30 victory and all but put the Broncos in the championship, leaving just one spot open for the rest of the nation to fight for.  With Boise State’s victory, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that a one-loss team will not play for the national championship this season.  That means Ohio State cannot afford its annual hiccup, and the Florida/Alabama loser Oct. 2 is thinking Sugar Bowl at best.

With droopy eyes and an exponential hatred for air transit, here are my rankings after week one:

1)  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
Who else do you put here?  The Broncos have the nation’s best win after downing Virginia Tech in the capital.  They also become the first team to clinch a spot in the championship game after the opening week.  Now, who will they play?

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
The defending champions rolled to a strong opening day win, and Trent Richardson did just fine filling in for the injured Mark Ingram.  As of now, Ingram is questionable for Saturday’s game against Penn State.  Early upset?

3)  Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
The Bucks crushed Marshall Thursday and immediately started talking about Miami, who they’ll play this weekend.  Terrelle Pryor had three touchdown passes in the tune-up win before the ‘Canes.  Will Pryor benefit from a phantom call?

4)  Oregon Ducks (1-0)
Remember when I said New Mexico would come close to pulling the upset?  Go ahead and laugh.  After Oregon’s 72-0 victory in which they gained 720 total yards, it’s clear the offense didn’t need Jeremiah Masoli or LaMichael James.  Rose Bowl?

5)  Texas Longhorns (1-0)
Garrett Gilbert played mistake-free football in his first start, and the unproven offense did enough to win Mack Brown’s first ever opener away from Austin.  The big burst came during a 24 point second quarter.  Who was the QB last year again?

6)  Florida Gators (1-0)
Lots of people are making a big deal about the botch snaps that led to eight fumbles, but my biggest concern is the 13 offensive yards they put up in the first half.  Should Tim Tebow say a prayer before game two?

7)  Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
A 59-6 win is impressive no matter who you play, especially considering Florida State never comes to play in week one.  Jimbo Fisher has brought a new attitude to Tallahassee, and it shows.  Can they beat the suddenly vulnerable Sooners?

8)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-0)
Yes, it was a complete mismatch, but part of playing these games is winning by the appropriate amount, and that’s what Bo Pelini’s squad did in a 49-10 route of Western Kentucky.  Will they demand to take their flag from all Big 12 stadiums?

9)  TCU Horned Frogs (1-0)
The Horned Frogs dominated every statistical category except the scoreboard.  A 30-21 game-not-as-close-as-score win made Andy Dalton the winningest QB in TCU history.  Will they play Boise State in a bowl game for the third straight year?

10)  Virginia Tech Hokies (0-1)
It’s clear Tyrod Tayler is a great quarterback, and Frank Beamer has a really good team.  The first quarter doomed the Hokies, and as predicted, defense is going to be the problem.  Can they run the table in the improved ACC?

11)  Miami Hurricanes (1-0)
After last year’s hot start, the ‘Canes are looking to repeat a spectacular September.  Jacory Harris tossed three touchdowns in a 45-0 win over Florida A&M Thursday.  Now it’s OSU.  Over/under on how many ’02 alums have called the team this week?

12)  Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
John Clay had 17 carries for 123 yards and two touchdowns as Wisconsin used a 24-0 third quarter to pull away from UNLV in Vegas.  Wisconsin always starts in the top 15.  Is this the year they finish there?

13)  Utah Utes (1-0)
Utah had a very good win over Pittsburgh Thursday night, and set themselves up nicely to make a run in the Mountain West.  DeVonte Christopher caught eight passes for 155 yards.  Utah should schedule home games every Thursday, right?

14)  Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
It’s hard to ignore Michigan because of all the national hype, but they sure did come to play Saturday against UConn.  Denard Robinson, the quarterback, looked more like a running back with 197 yards rushing.  Will they finally beat Ohio State?

15)  Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)
After a slow start, Rob Bolden and company got it rolling in the second half in a 44-14 win over Youngstown State.  The offense did struggle a bit with only 371 total yards, but I’m sure they will clean it up against Alabama Saturday, yea?

16)  Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0)
It wasn’t pretty for Iowa – Eastern Illinois had them outgained for a while in the first half – but the Hawkeyes used stifling defense to cruise 37-7.  Ricky Stanzi avoided an early injury.  When will Iowa’s two blocked field goals come this year?

17)  Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
Scary moments for the Sooners against the tough…Utah State?  That’s right.  Oklahoma nearly let another opener turn into a disaster when the Aggies bounced out of an early hole to make it a game.  Will they get stung by FSU this week?

18)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-0)
Guess who’s back with an even better running game?  Believe it or not, Georgia Tech looks like it might be even more explosive on the ground after Saturday’s 372 yard ground performance.  Will they defend their ACC crown?

19)  LSU Tigers (1-0)
I’m trying not to give the Tigers too much credit for a win over a second string roster, but it was a road game against a top 25 opponent, and LSU got it done.  Les Miles needed that win and now will likely start 5-0.  Is LSU back?

20)  Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0)
I don’t like this team as much as the writers do, but Ryan Mallett was very good and made an early case for SEC player of the year, completing 21 of 24 passes in a 41 point win.  Can they beat Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn in a row?

21)  BYU Cougars (1-0)
The Cougars used a come-from-behind effort to knock off Jake Locker and Washington Saturday.  The defense shut out Washington in the second half.  The big question – can BYU bring it every week as an independent?

22)  Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
Do-it-all quarterback Aaron Murray threw three touchdowns and added one on the ground to help Georgia slaughter Louisiana-Lafayette.  Things heat up fast with South Carolina up next.  How will the Bulldogs fare in the SEC East?

23)  West Virginia Mountaineers (1-0)
Noel Devine began his Heisman push with 11 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown against Coastal Carolina.  The Mountaineers have Maryland and LSU on the nonconference slate this season.  Will they win both?

24)  Arizona Wildcats (1-0)
The Wildcats, eager to avenge the Holiday Bowl disaster against Nebraska, came out smoking at Toledo with a 41-2 victory.  Nick Foles threw for 360 yards in the onslaught.  The Wildcats now have four straight home games.  Breakout year?

25)  Stanford Cardinal (1-0)
No Toby Gerhart, no problem for Stanford.  Andrew Luck didn’t need much luck in throwing four touchdowns and throwing Stanford past Sacramento State.  The Pac 10 season kicks off Saturday with UCLA.  Can they send the Bruins to 0-2?

MWC, WAC in trouble for different reasons

Just when it appeared the earthquake had settled, grounds rumbled again this week, this time out west.

After Nebraska left the Big 12 for the Big 10, Colorado left the Big 12 for the Pac 10 and Utah left the Mountain West for the Pac 10, the MWC replaced the Utes with highly touted Boise State.  Now the Mountain West, which appeared as if it would stay largely intact, may be the most jumbled of all.

BYU announced this week it was leaving the Mountain West to become a football independent and join the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in all other sports.  The Mountain West countered by inviting two WAC schools, Nevada and Fresno State, to join its conference.  Both accepted, creating a problem not even the President’s cabinet would be able to solve with ease.

The NCAA requires a minimum of eight teams to be in a conference.  The WAC is down to six with the Bulldogs and Wolfpack departing, meaning even if BYU were to join in other sports, the WAC would still need one more team.  That doesn’t look like it’s going to happen without extending an offer to a Football Championship Series (FCS) team to become a Football Bowl Series (FBS) team.

Sure, the WAC can sue Nevada and Fresno (it did for $5 million each), but that isn’t going to bring them back.  But while the WAC may have problems establishing itself as a conference, the MWC is not necessarily out of trouble.  It appears to have lost two of its best football teams, one of its best basketball teams, and is replacing those schools with two schools than are average at best.  The conference takes a talent and recruiting hit.

What may be the biggest stumper of all though, is why BYU would leave.  It would be one thing if the school left for the Pac 10 orf Big 12, but to be an independent?  I don’t get it.  BYU will never be Notre Dame, and won’t create the revenue on its own than Notre Dame does.  The Cougars were in a conference on the rise with programs such as TCU and Boise State making a BCS game, but now goes to a much weaker sports conference and will have to schedule 12 independent football games.

If BYU realizes the WAC is going to fold, it may be screwed.  Don’t expect the Mountain West to be kind enough to let them back in unless they agree to rejoin the conference for football.

Here’s an idea: how about no conferences

There have been so many expansion rumors, and maybe facts, published this week, it’s hard to wrap my head around it.  My hometown hockey team is playing in the Stanley Cup finals, and two legendary NBA franchises are duking it out on the hardwood for the Finals trophy again.  Rafael Nadal just won the French Open again, Armando Galarraga pitch a perfe…ugh…really good game, and the Women’s College World Series is down to its final four teams.  Yet somehow, this expansion news is the biggest thing in sports right now, more so because of the impact it could have on the college landscape than what has actually happened so far, which is really nothing.

I’ll catch you up really quick.

You may recall a few weeks ago a report came out saying the Big Ten had invited Missouri and Nebraska to its conference.  That report turned out to be false, but prompted swift action by another conference.  The Pac 10 is reportedly ready to offer six Big 12 schools (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado) membership into its conference.  Only one of those six schools, Texas, would earn less revenue by switching conferences.  The Pac 10 is saying each school would get $20 million, as the conference would start its own network.

Not so fast.  A recent e-mail from Ohio State President Gordon Gee to Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany all but straight up says Texas will be included in the Big Ten’s expansion plans.

So how is the Big 12 reacting to all of this?  At first, commissioner Dan Beebe said only that he hopes the conference will stay intact and thinks they have a good reason to do so.  Things are a little hotter now though.  CBSSports has confirmed that at least Nebraska, and possibly Missouri, have been given two weeks to commit to remaining in the conference.  Otherwise the six Big 12 schools invited by the Pac 10 may take off.

There’s a whole lot more I can go into, but I’ll let you read all the reports yourself.  When you’re done, come back and read my proposal, which may be the best of all: get rid of conferences in football.

We all know this expansion drama is about football and nothing more.  Though it will obviously affect all sports, the revenue from football far outweighs the consideration from other sports.

So why not just get rid of conferences all together?  That’s right.  Make everyone an independent.

If this expansion thing keeps going, dominos will fall, and eventually we will have two super conferences – the Pac 60 and the Big 60.  So why not just not have conferences at all?

Each team is on its own in terms of generating revenue.  No conference networks.  No partnerships with broadcast or cable networks.

Scheduling?  Easy.  Each school plays 12 games.  They play the same 12 teams two years in a row to get the home and home matchup.  Two of those 12 teams can be the same every year.  That way each school can keep its two biggest football rivals on the slate.  USC and play Notre Dame and UCLA every year.  Florida can keep Georgia and Tennessee.  Texas can play Oklahoma and Texas A&M.  Michigan gets Ohio State and Michigan State.

The other 10 games must be different each time a new schedule is made every two years.  So if Florida wants Georgia and Tennessee every year, they can do it, but they can’t have Florida State more than two years in a row.  After taking two years off, they can put the Seminoles back in.  This shuffles the scheduling so teams aren’t playing the same teams every year.

The BCS system can still be used and would likely be more accurate since there wouldn’t be conference championship games to mess things up.

My idea seems just as plausible as any other right now.  I’d much rather see that than be in my recliner at age 70 watching the Pac 60 champion and Big 60 champion play for the national championship.

Super conferences.  Not as far away as you might think.

Mid-majors making tourney fun

Through the first round (and part of the second), the mid-major conference teams are proving why eight at-large bids was not a joke.  The small schools are making the 2010 version of March Madness fun to watch.  Eleven mid-majors advanced to round two, six beating power conference opponents to do so.  St. Mary’s just advanced to the sweet sixteen, and a second mid-major will join them once Butler/Murray State goes final.

Meanwhile, here’s a look at how the major conferences are doing:

ACC:  4-2
Big 12:  5-2
Big East:  4-5 (includes Villanova loss)
Big Ten:  4-1
Pac 10:  2-0
SEC:  2-2

Conference tournament predictions

It’s Championship Week, and my staff had so much fun making picks all year.  Now they get a bonus by having the opportunity to fill out the major conference tournament brackets.  The point system is as follows:

Big East opening round win = .5
First round win = 1
Quarterfinal win = 2
Semifinal win = 3
Championship win = 4

Click on the corresponding tournament under the person’s name to see his or her picks for that conference.

Jaryd’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Kyle’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Molly’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Blake’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Carl’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Brendan’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Bubble growing with one month to go

Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday.  To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up.  Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day.  For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.”  In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.

At large locks:

ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland

Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier

Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas

Conference USA (1)
UAB

Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV

SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s

This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs.  Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.

1)  Rhode Island Rams – That’s right.  The strongest bubble team is the Rams.  With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses.  The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.

2)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses.  They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.

3)  Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s.  The Tigers’strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI.  They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.

4)  Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers.  They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4.  They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference.  The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.

5)  Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January.  Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M.  The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.

6)  Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them.  However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.

7)  Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth.  Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it.  They are tied for sixth in the ACC.

8)  Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in.  The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44.  The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.

9)  Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State.  Four of the Rebels’seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI.  The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.

10)  Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout.  Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time.  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.

11)  Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27.  Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins.  Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.

On the outside looking in:

Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina

Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion news

Check out the following articles about the Big Ten looking into expanding with Texas, the Pac 10 taking Colorado and/or a Mountain West school, and new replacements for the Big 12 when Missouri likely leaves.

Pac 10 commish: Now is the time to consider expansion
Pac 10 could launch cannonball on non-BCS with conference cannibalism
Expansion would boost Pac 10 but leave wake of disruption
It’s finally out there: Texas to the Big Ten
More expansion: a proposed new look

A lesson to all college sports fans

My frustration has boiled over.

Enough for me to write about it anyway.

To start from the beginning would be to go back a long way, so I’ll just tell you what happened yesterday.  I was at the library (University of Missouri) when I ran into a friend I hadn’t seen in quite some time.  We talked about our semesters, graduation, the weather and…per usual when I’m involved in a conversation…sports.  I asked him, who I will refrain from naming for his own embarrassment, who he thought would win the Kansas/Texas game.  He said Texas.

Dumb.  But I was the guy who said the Colts would win the Super Bowl, so I won’t fault him for a wrong pick.  It was what came next that had me really peeved.

“I don’t ever want Kansas to win.  I hope they lose every game.”

As a Missouri student and fan, he has blindly been led to believe that the most educated college sports fans are ones who hate Kansas.  Fine.  Hate Kansas.  But if you’re a Missouri fan, don’t ever root for KU to lose.  Ever.

This kid considers himself educated.  I just had to walk away.

He’s not the only one.  When Kansas loss to Tennessee, I immediately logged onto Facebook to see a barrage of status updates from my friends and classmates:

“KU sucks.”

“Rock-chalk chickenhawk”

“Kansas is overrrated.”

Joe Schmoe is no longer listed as single.

Okay, so I didn’t really care about that last one, but the first three were quite annoying coming from Tiger fans.

Here’s a lesson to all college sports fans: hate whoever you want, but want your conference opponents to win (no, I don’t get paid for my brilliance).

In college sports, strength of schedule means everything.  If your conference opponents are losing, your favorite team is getting weaker without even playing a game.  In Missouri’s case, every Kansas loss hurts.  The Tigers play the Jayhawks twice in basketball every season.  And every season, I want Kansas to be ranked number one going into those games.  Why?  Because beating an undefeated, top ranked team carries a lot more weight than beating an unranked bubble team.

Same goes for football.  In 2007, I couldn’t believe all the idiots on Missouri’s campus who wanted Kansas to lose a football game.  A golden storyline was being written every week when overachieving KU started 11-0.  While nearly everyone else wanted the Jayhawks to stop flying, I recognized this for what it was – an opportunity of a lifetime for Tigers football.  Undefeated Kansas vs one-loss Missouri on the last day of the regular season, playing for the Big 12 North championship, a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game, and national title hopes still very much alive for the winner.  Not to mention a rivalry game, primetime on ABC, and with College Gameday at the neutral Arrowhead Stadium.  But I guess all that didn’t mean anything for those Tiger fans who were rooting for a Jayhawk loss prior to the Missouri game.  One Kansas loss would have destroyed that moment.  Instead, it was the Tigers who boosted up to number one by beating the number two Jayhawks.

Had Kansas not come into that game unbeaten, who knows if the Tigers would have leaped West Virginia.  One thing is for sure – the game got an enormous amount of publicity, propelled both schools’football programs, and likely lured at least a recruit or two away from a Texas school to come play in Columbia.  And it was because the team Missouri beat was undefeated.

The nonconference part of the schedule in any sport is the part where every Tiger fan should be rooting for all Big 12 teams, including Kansas, to go undefeated.  Just like every Auburn fan should be rooting for the SEC, and every Butler fan should root for the Horizon League.  In conference play, it all depends on standings, but generally you want the good teams to beat the bad ones so that the matchups with the good teams mean more.

Highly anticipated matchups leads to high attendance, which leads to money.  More money means more opportunity to improve facilities, which leads to better performance.  Better performance leads to more TV time, which in turn creates more exposure.  More exposure leads to better recruiting, which leads to better performance.  Connect the dots any way you’d like.  Just know that there is no justification for rooting against a rival whom your team is going to play, especially against someone whom your team won’t play.

Missouri fans say “but it’s Kansas.  We hate them.  They’re our rivals.”  True.  True.  And true.  They are your rivals, and you may hate them.  But rooting against them is stupid.  It only hurts Missouri.

In professional sports, it’s the opposite.  Hate who you want and root for them to lose.  In pro sports, winning is the only thing that matters.  Quality wins and strength of schedule means nada.  Red Sox fans want the Yankees to go 0-162, and that’s perfectly fine.  But those same Bostonians better be rooting for Notre Dame to win every game so the Boston College/Notre Dame game means more.

So Missouri fans, if you want to root against Kansas because it makes you feel good, then go for it.  Call yourselves true fans.  Call yourselves passionate.

Just please don’t call yourselves educated.

Turner gives Buckeyes bracket boost

IMPORTANT: This is based on games played through Jan. 19.  If the tournament started Jan. 20, this is what my bracket would look like.

Last four in:  Arizona State, Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Maryland
First four out:  Virginia Tech, Marquette, Oklahoma State, San Diego State

Kentucky remains #1 overall.  They are now the last remaining unbeaten team in division 1.

Texas is still a one seed despite the loss to Kansas State.  The Longhorns have a better strength of schedule than Kansas, as well as a more legitimate loss.

Despite Kansas State’s win over Texas, the schedule, as well as the loss to unranked Missouri, are not impressive enough to push them into a #2 spot yet.

Purdue takes another dip after the Northwestern loss, though they rebounded nicely with a tough win at Illinois.

Georgia Tech jumps to a #5 seed.  The Yellow Jackets now have wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson in the ACC.  Also making big jumps this week were Ohio State and Vanderbilt.

Now in as conference champions are Campbell and Western Kentucky, replacing East Tennessee State and Denver.

Major conference breakdown:

ACC:  7
Big 12:  6
Big East:  6
SEC: 5
Big Ten:  4
Pac 10:  2

See the complete bracket here