Preseason college football bowl picks

The college football season begins tomorrow, and while Thursday can’t come fast enough for many players, coaches and fans, much of the country is wait because…well…I haven’t made my predictions yet.

Here they are.  The BCS games at least.

There is no tournament as you know, and that’s just fine.  Eyeballs are still on the screen, money is still flowing in and teams are still jumping conferences in search of that extra dollar.  The final season pre-realignment should be a dandy.

BCS National Championship
Florida (13-0) vs Oklahoma (13-0)

Are these the two most talented teams in the country?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Only time will tell.  Florida’s passing game is its biggest question mark.  Besides the obvious loss of Tim Tebow, the Gators return only one starting receiver from its 2010 Sugar Bowl championship team (Deonte Thompson), but a lot of unproven talent led by Carl Moore and Chris Rainey.  Florida’s schedule shapes up nicely.  They play just three games outside the state, two of which should be sleepers.  The game everybody is talking about is the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and by that point, Urban Meyer will have figured out a way to use his dynamic running back tandem and throw the ball effectively.  Alabama lost 13 defensive players to the draft, and has always been pretty vanilla offensively.  Florida is faster and more talented, and they will beat the Tide twice this year to reach the championship game 13-0.

Oklahoma knows it will likely have to run the table to get back to the championship game.  Landry Jones is back after playing nearly a full season filling in for the injured Sam Bradford.  Ryan Broyles and DeMarco Murray return to help an offense that should expect to show flashes of 2009 when they put up five straight 60+ point games.  The defense has just five returning starters.  If they fail to make it back to this game, it won’t be because they didn’t score enough points.  The non-conference schedule is difficult, but the Sooners should take care of Florida State in Norman, and should finish nonconference play without a blemish if they don’t overlook a trip to Cincinnati.  The game everybody wants to see is the Red River Shootout.  Spoiler alert: don’t bet on Texas.  On the same day Florida soars by Alabama, Oklahoma will do the same to Texas.  Last year Bradford got hurt in the first quarter, and the Sooners nearly won the game anyway.  This time Texas is the team without its Heisman candidate.  With a more experienced Jones running the show, Bob Stoops will find ways to score on a good Texas defense.  After that, the Sooners should roll through the rest of the schedule until they meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.  Something tells me Oklahoma won’t want Nebraska walking away with the final league championship game banner before bolting for the Big Ten.

Rose Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs Oregon State (8-4)

The Buckeyes have become a BCS staple, and that won’t change this season.  Terrelle Pryor is a preseason Heisman pick, and the Buckeyes return 10 starters on offense.  The experience should help make the offense better, especially the 106th ranked passing attack.  Defensively, don’t expect Ohio State to fall off.  Led by All American defensive end Cameron Heyward, Ohio State will be making life miserable for Big Ten opponents again.  I’m picking them to lose either at Wisconsin or at Iowa, but the slip shouldn’t keep them from another Big Ten championship and another Rose Bowl appearance.

The Oregon State pick may surprise you.  It may surprise Dennis Dodd too, who has the Beavers eighth in his preseason standings.  Honestly, the most talented team in the conference cannot play in this game, which is why I’m picking the team I think will finish second.  This race is going to be tight all year, and as we learned last year, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between one and eight.  Jacquizz and James Rodgers are outstanding playmakers who will make life much easier for first year starter Ryan Katz.  The defense will be solid with nine returning starters, as long as they can stop the pass.  Oregon State has a brutal schedule.  They are the only team in the country to play all 12 games against either BCS opponents or teams that made BCS bowl games in 2010.  They go to TCU and Boise State before Pac 10 play begins, and while they will likely lose both, they will be battle tested before conference play.  They have USC and Oregon at home, and without Jeremiah Masoli and all the offseason problems the Ducks had, I think the Beavers will take the Civil War.  It will be a 7-2 finish for Oregon State, which will be good enough to finish ahead of the eight teams they need to in order to make this game.

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2) vs Pittsburgh (10-2)

The Hokies get the first chance of any team to really put its mark on 2010 when it opens in the nation’s capital against Boise State.  After that, it’s a coin toss for Frank Beamer’s squad as it plays out the ACC schedule that has been as predictable as a Toyota brake or a Pittsburgh Pirate bullpen outing.  The offense, yes offense, will be the ones carrying this team. Beamer will have to get used to pitch and catch style football with Ryan Williams and a healthy Darren Evans in the backfield.  Tyrod Taylor is a senior now with plenty of experience and a plethora of receivers to throw to.  The defense may be shaky while the newcomers fill in, but Beamer is a defensive-minded coach, so don’t bet against his D.  I have the Hokies with two losses.  Boise State will not be one of them.

Pittsburgh may seem like the most obvious major college champion, and they are, but the question is where do they go?  The last Big East team to play in the Orange Bowl got waxed (by the Hokies), and the committee has thought twice about putting little sister in the game ever since.  A heisman-type running back leads an offense that may be better than what they showed against the Bearcats in the regular season finale.  The defense returns six, but the suspect unit could pose problems against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Miami and Utah.  Dave Wannstedt’s crew is itching for a BCS berth after coming up just short last year, and they will get it.  There are four games to look out for, and they will lose two of them: at Utah, Miami, at Notre Dame, at Cincinnati.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (11-2) vs Boise State (11-1)

The Sugar Bowl’s replacement pick will be Alabama, who will be happy to see Urban Meyer’s Gators gone after Florida trucks them in Atlanta in December.  Alabama will have too hard a time replacing 13 defensive players to be the same type of powerhouse it was in 2009.  More will be expected of Greg McElroy, who has yet to prove he can actually carry a team despite his career record.  Nevertheless, this is still a very good and very dangerous team.  The schedule is not all that difficult outside of Florida, so the Tide should be able to handle all non-Urban Meyer-coached teams pretty easily.  This may be deja vü – they were beaten by a mid-major in 2008.

That mid-major shouldn’t be considered a mid-major any longer.  Boise State is for real, and they will show it this season.  Only one, yes one, starter from either side of the ball is gone, and a top Heisman contender in Kellen Moore returns to lead the Broncos in one of the most anticipated seasons in school history.  An undefeated season may mean a trip to Glendale for the national championship game, but it won’t happen.  I have the Broncos losing to Virginia Tech in the opener at RFK.  Why?  Because Boise has the same team they had last year, and that team gave up way too many points in a very weak conference.  The Virginia Tech offense is experienced and lethal, which is why I think the Hokies will win in a shootout.  After the Monday night setback, Boise State will run the table to earn its third BCS trip in four years.

Fiesta Bowl
Texas (11-1) vs TCU (11-1)

If there was any positive during an otherwise disgusting national championship performance by the Longhorns, it was the second half play of now-starter Garrett Gilbert.  Although he is no McCoy, Gilbert’s gameday experience will help him.  The question is, will his offensive line?  Relatively unproven tackles will have to fend off quick defensive ends, and Gilbert may see his share of turf time.  The schedule is an interesting one, as Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders host the ‘Horns in week three.  Last time Texas visited Lubbock, Michael Crabtree whipped the Raider faithful into a frenzy.  Don’t think the Longhorns have short memories.  The Red River Shootout is always the game of the year in the conference, and this year’s game is no exception.  It’s the only game I have Texas losing, simply because Oklahoma is the only team that can shred an otherwise stellar secondary.  One other game to look out for – Texas travels to Lincoln Oct. 16 for a rematch with Nebraska.  After a bye, I like the ‘Horns.

TCU still has a bitter taste in its mouth after the offense failed to show up in this game last year.  The Fiesta Bowl committee will be hesitant to take them, but in the end won’t pass up the opportunity to match these Texas teams together in a game fans have wanted to see since TCU climbed into the national spotlight.  Andy Dalton returns with a number of 400 yard receivers to spread the ball around to.  Four offensive line starters return to help two new running backs get into the mix, and seven starters return on the defensive unit that was one of the best in the country.  TCU opens with pesky Oregon State in the Jerry Dome, then it’s a relatively light load until a Nov. 6 matchup at Utah.  That’s the only time the Horned Frogs will fall this season, leaving them out of the national championship picture but giving them their second straight BCS appearance.

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