Regional final breakdown

After being criticized for being the third overall seed when many thought they shouldn’t even be a one seed, Duke has outlasted all of the other number ones and is in the final four (exactly as yours truly predicted).  Now they face the team many thought should have been a one seed instead of them.  Darryl Bryant-less West Virginia manhandled Kentucky (exactly as yours truly predicted) in a game-not-as-close-as-score regional final to set up a showdown with Duke.  Here’s how the elite eight breaks down.

Best performance:  Duke
The Blue Devils shot 47 percent from behind the arc, grabbed 22 offensive rebounds despite being outsized and not as athletic, and missed just six of 29 free throws to beat a very good Baylor team in front of a heavily partisan Bears crowd in Houston.

Worst performance:  Kentucky
Yes, the freshmen caved.  Playing the first decent opponent of the tournament, the Wildcats bricked their first 20 treys en route to a 4-32 performance, shot an abysmal 55 percent from the line and turned the ball over 17 times in the loss.

Clutch play:  Gordon Hayward
The baby-faced assassin finished an alley-oop to put Butler in front for good, then made a how-did-he-do-it driving layup with 59 seconds left to sink K-State and move home to play in the final four.  He finished with 22 points and nine boards.

(Un)clutch play:  Jacon Pullen
For as clutch as the junior guard was against Xavier, his choke job against Butler reminded us all that any player can be human.  After being shut out in the first half, Pullen missed three shots in the final two minutes, allowing Butler to pull away.

Best coaching move:  Tom Izzo
Is there anything this guy can’t do?  Without star guard Kalin Lucas, Izzo survived Tennessee’s three-point barrage and held on for a one point win.  They key play: telling senior Raymar Morgan to intentionally miss the second free throw.

Worst coaching move:  Bruce Pearl
With three timeouts left late, Pearl decided not to use any and let his team play.  The Vols ended up fouling on Michigan State’s last two possessions, and the timeout he did call could not have been used to set up what was a terrible final shot.

Team that deserved to lose but won:  West Virginia
Anytime a team goes an entire half without making a field goal from inside the arc, they shouldn’t win the game.  They also only shot 67 percent from the line and were outrebounded 45-34, but for the second straight game, they found a way to win.

Team that deserved to win but lost:  Tennessee
Despite Pearl’s questionable decisions late, the Volunteers did just about everything they could to get to the final four.  The starters had 13, 12, 11, 10 and nine points, they won the turnover battle, and they shot north of 50 percent from the field.

Third round breakdown

Greatest game in NCAA tournament history? There’s a compelling argument that we may have seen it in the third round when Kansas State knocked off Xavier in double overtime. That game will get plenty of love in my third round breakdown.

Best performance: Kentucky
The ‘Cats held a team that shot lights out the first two rounds to only 33 percent from the floor, and did it in front of a highly partisan Cornell crowd.  Meanwhile, Kentucky did a nice job spreading the ball around offensively and dominated the paint.

Worst performance:  St. Mary’s
Are you kidding me?  After dispatching Villanova in the second round, the Gaels looked lost against Baylor’s zone defense.  They were mercilessly outrebounded and shot 6-22 from behind the three-point line.  The Bears were by far the better team.

Clutch play:  Jacob Pullen
The junior guard hit two unbelievably clutch three pointers at the end of double overtime, then calmly sunk two free throws en route to 28 points to help Kansas State win one of the greatest NCAA tournament games ever played.

(Un)clutch play:  Jim Boeheim
I’m giving it to a coach because no coach has choked more than this one.  Boeheim lied about Onuaku’s injury, sat in a zone while Butler torched it, then promptly got what he deserved, losing to a lower seed for the fourteenth time in the tournament.

Best coaching move:  Brad Stevens
For the second round in a row, Stevens grabs this spot.  The Butler coach masterfully broke down the Syracuse zone with dribble-drives, using Matt Howard down low and spot up shooters around the arc to lead most of the way.

Worst coaching move:  Thad Matta
For some inexcusable reason, Matta left two timeouts in his pocket and instead allowed the final minute to turn into the Evan Turner show.  The result?  Two turnovers and two missed shots in Ohio State’s final five possessions.

Team that deserved to lose but won:  West Virginia
To say the Mountaineers played well would be a complete lie.  Huggins’team turned the ball over 23 times against the Washington press, Shot just 4-15 from beyond the arc and still came away with a win because the Huskies were just a little bit worse.

Team that deserved to win but lost:  Xavier
Not that Kansas State deserved to lose, they definitely did not, but it’s hard to say Xavier didn’t deserve to win.  The Musketeers did everything they could to avoid ending their season, but just couldn’t keep up with Pullen down the stretch.

See what happens if the tourney expands

Duke the new pick to win it all

I told you on Wednesday that I notoriously to terrible when it comes to filling out a bracket.  So while I’m still scratching my head over why Kansas didn’t get off the bus for 38 minutes against Northern Iowa, it probably should not at all be surprising that the Jayhawks lost to the Panthers.  So I, like so many others, will take a mulligan.

Duke is going to win the national championship.

Yes, I probably just gift-wrapped an elite eight berth for Purdue, but I’ll at least attempt to justify why the team I originally picked to get to the finals and lose to Kansas will now get to the finals and win because they don’t have to play Kansas.

1)  Duke is experienced.  Jon Scheyer is a senior, and he is playing like one.  He is the heart and soul of the team, and a pretty good scorer as well.  He averages 18 points and five assists per game.  Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are also upper classmen with tournament experience.  The three of them account for most of Duke’s points, but don’t forget about Brian Zoubek, who is also a senior.

2)  Duke actually has size to go along with great guard play.  Unlikely previous Blue Devil teams, this team makes an impact with its size, most notably at the defensive end of the floor.  Led by Zoubek’s 7.3 baords and .8 blocks per game, Duke outrebounds and outblocks teams.

3)  Duke plays blistering defense.  The Devils allow just 61 points per game.  That’s a margin of more than 16 points per game against the third toughest strength of schedule in the country.  Opponents shoot just 27 percent from downtown and turn it over nearly 15 times per game against Duke.

4)  They might be the best coached team left in the tournament.  With all due respect to Jim Boeheim, Tom Izzo and Bob Huggins, Duke has the best coach of the remaining 16 teams.  Mike Krzyzewski always gets the best out of his players even if they aren’t the most talented, which is why he continues to make the tournament and do well.  None of the remaining coaches are as good with Xs and Os as Coach K.

5)  Duke has the easiest road.  First, the Blue Devils play a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue team.  The Boilermakers will use defense to hang around, but Duke will pull away with about 10 minutes to go and win by 13.  Next up will be Baylor.  While the Bears are good, they have overachieved and can’t compete with Duke at the guard spot.  Tweetie Carter will get into foul trouble, Smith will shut down LaceDarius Dunn and the Devils will get another double-digit win.  A final four matchup will feature the Devils against West Virginia, who will frustrate the young Kentucky team into submission in the elite eight.  The Mountaineers will get complacent with the three just enough to allow Zubeck to have his best game of the tournament shooting over a small West Virginia team.  Duke will win by seven to set up a showdown with Syracuse for the title.  Respecting Zubeck’s performance from the final four game, Syracuse will pack the zone in tight, leaving open shots for Scheyer, Singler and Smith.  After Duke builds an early lead, they will work the clock and not allow Syracuse to get transition baskets.  After a while, the Orange will switch to man, but it will be too late.  Duke will hoist the trophy after a 13 point win in the championship.

My mulligan scenario is complete.  By Saturday, I might have to try it again.

Greatest upset ever? Not even close

The sound of Kevin Harlan and Dan Bonner freaking out simultaneously is still ringing in my ears.  It happened twice this past weekend.  Once when Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh buried UNLV with a near-30 footer, and again when his gasp-turned-craziness three sealed the upset win over Kansas.  The latter game was dubbed the greatest upset in NCAA history (or something along those lines) by Greg Gumble in the postgame.

Not even close actually.  It’s not even the greatest upset of this tournament.

By seed, the honor goes to the fourteenth seeded Ohio Bobcats, who spanked third seeded Georgetown by 14 points.  This is the same Ohio team that was seeded ninth in the MAC tournament.  Ninth.  Northern Iowa was seeded first in the Missouri Valley tournament.

Missouri Valley > MAC
Northern Iowa > Ohio

The Panthers were in and out of the rankings this year but were thought to be a huge cinderella simply because the conference was arguably the worst it has ever been, certainly the worst it has been in the past 10 years.  As a result, their two best wins came against Old Dominion and Siena, and three losses outside the RPI top 100 doomed their NCAA tournament seeding.

Even with the weak schedule, holding opponents to 54 points per game, best among tournament teams, is impressive.  They don’t turn the ball over (only 10.6 per game), they outrebound teams by three on average and they shoot 76 percent from the free throw line.  But somehow everybody (myself included) wrote Kansas on the sweet sixteen line without taking a second glance at the Panthers.

We know better now.

Further proof that this upset should not come as the overhyped surprise that the media is making it out to be lies in recent tournament history.  One, two and three seeds that play poorly in the first round tend to lose in the second round.

In 2005, #2 seed UConn lost to N.C. State after beating Central Florida by only six.In 2006, #2 seed Tennessee lost to Wichita State after beating Winthrop by only two, and #2 seed Ohio State fell to Georgetown after beating Davidson by just eight.  In 2008, #2 seed Duke escaped Belmont by one before falling to West Virginia.  This year, #2 seed Villanova needed overtime to beat Robert Morris, then fell to St. Mary’s.  New Mexico (#3 seed) squeaked by Montana before getting blown out by Washington.

Anyone who watched the Jayhawks play Thursday knows they played poorly.  Lehigh scored 12 of the game’s first 16 points and trailed by only six at one point in the second half.  Maybe Kansas was giving us a warning sign that they were another early exit victim based on poor first round play.  After all, teams only get 48 hours to prepare for the next game after winning the first one.  Maybe 48 hours wasn’t enough for Bill Self to figure out how to score against the physical and fundamentally sound Panther defense.

Either way, this is not the biggest upset in tournament history.  2004 featured #9 seed UAB upsetting #1 Kentucky in a game far more unexpected than this.  How about 2006 when #11 seed George Mason knocked off #1 UConn?  That same year, #14 seed Northwestern State KOed #3 Iowa.  This year’s Ohio over Georgetown game also figured a larger discrepancy in seeds.  Technically, so did Murray State/Vanderbilt.

Now we will never know how the Jayhawks, who were (and still are) the best team in the country, match up with Syracuse.  Or Kentucky.  That’s one nice thing about college football.  We always see #1 vs #2.  Rarely does that happen in college basketball.

Thank you Northern Iowa for ruining some potential dream matchups that avid fans have been waiting all year for.  Then again, thank you for continuing the excitement of this tournament, for making mid-majors believe and for ruining brackets all over the country.

They pulled off the upset.  And it was big.

But it wasn’t the biggest.

Second round breakdown

So we have a 12 seed, 11 seed, 10 seed, nine seed, two six seeds and two five seeds in the sweet sixteen.  Did anyone have any of those teams?  I’ll take credit for Xavier.

Here’s how round two breaks down:

Best performance:  Cornell
The blistering shooting continued for the Big Red in the second round.  Cornell shot 61 percent to route Wisconsin and have won the first two tourney games by a combined 32 points.  Louis Dale scored 26 and Ryan Wittman dropped 24.

Worst performance:  Gonzaga
Catching a break by avoiding Arinze Onuaku, the underseeded ‘Zags laid a dud in what many thought would be a competitive game.  Even without Onuaku, the Orange outrebounded the Bulldogs by nine and shot 54 percent from the field.

Clutch play:  Ali Farokhmanesh
I can’t take this spot away from him anymore.  Farokhmanesh’s ill-advised three pointer five seconds into the shot clock with his team up one turned golden for the Panthers.  The runner up is Korie Lucious, who plays Farokhmanesh next.

(Un)clutch play:  Scottie Reynolds
Every time it looked like Villanova was about to pull past St. Mary’s, Scottie Reynolds was there to kill the momentum with a miss.  The senior guard shot just 4-15 from the field, and 6-30 for the tournament.  Not the way he wanted to go out.

Best coaching move:  Brad Stevens
The 33-year-old frat boy look-a-like used Gordon Hayward perfectly when Matt Howard picked up his fourth foul early in the second half.  Hayward guarded the post, and Butler survived being undersized by making shots and playing great D.

Worst coaching move:  Bill Self
The best coach in the country needed 38 minutes to realize he had a huge size advantage against Northern Iowa.  By then it was too late.  The Morris twins both played well, but the Jayhawks spent too much time settling for jumpers early.

Team that deserved to lose but won:  Purdue
Matt Painter refused to call timeout at the end of regulation, and it almost lost him the game when his team turned the ball over.  Luckily for them, Texas A&M missed two chances to win the game, and the Boilermakers escaped by two in overtime.

Team that deserved to win but lost:  Pittsburgh
The Panthers did everything right in the comeback attempt against Xavier, but an out-of-bounds call was reversed, a travel was missed and the Panthers bricked two threes at the end which allowed Xavier to escape with a three-point victory.

Mid-majors making tourney fun

Through the first round (and part of the second), the mid-major conference teams are proving why eight at-large bids was not a joke.  The small schools are making the 2010 version of March Madness fun to watch.  Eleven mid-majors advanced to round two, six beating power conference opponents to do so.  St. Mary’s just advanced to the sweet sixteen, and a second mid-major will join them once Butler/Murray State goes final.

Meanwhile, here’s a look at how the major conferences are doing:

ACC:  4-2
Big 12:  5-2
Big East:  4-5 (includes Villanova loss)
Big Ten:  4-1
Pac 10:  2-0
SEC:  2-2

First round breakdown

The first round did some intermediate damage to my bracket, but I’ve survived, and I’m ready for the second round.  Here’s a look back at the madness that was round one.

Best performance:  California
The Bears raced out to a 12-0 lead, built it to 22-4 and never looked back, blitzing Louisville.  Jerome Randle and Theo Robertson each scored 21 points.  They need to get more than two points from the bench if they want to beat Duke.

Worst performance:  Georgetown
The Hoyas drew Ohio, the #9 seed from the MAC tournament and proceeded to lose by 14 in a game that was never close.  Greg Monroe did his part, scoring 19, but the defense was nonexistent in giving up 97 points on 58 percent Ohio shooting.

Clutch play:  Danero Thomas
It’s hard to deny Quincy Pondexter and Ali Farokhmanesh this slot, but Murray State’s Danero Thomas turned nothing into more than something – a buzzer beater to send the thirteenth seeded Racers past fourth seeded Vanderbilt.  Butler is next.

(Un)clutch play:  Gary Johnson
The Longhorns’junior forward missed two free throws with his team up one in overtime, then saw Ishmael Smith bury a 17 foot jumper with a second to go, giving Wake Forest a one point win over the team ranked third to start the season.

Best coaching move:  Blaine Taylor
Notre Dame wanted a slow pace, and Blaine Taylor realized that was a perfect opportunity for his Old Dominion Monarchs to hang around with the favored Irish.  Double teams also held Luke Harangody scoreless for 39 minutes.

Worst coaching move: Mike Rice
Robert Morris deserves all the credit and more for playing Villanova tough for 45 minutes, but Rice had no play even though a timeout had been called, resulting in an off-balance three-point attempt by Mezei Nwigwe at the buzzer in overtime.

Team that deserved to lose but won:  BYU
The Cougars had no business surviving two Florida game-winning shot attempts after blowing a 13 point lead, but that’s exactly what happened as BYU escaped the Gators in double overtime.  Florida got ice cold down the stretch.

Team that deserved to win but lost:  New Mexico State
It’s hard not to feel sorry for the Aggies after a comeback effort fell short against 2009 runner-up Michigan State.  First they got called for a lane violation when the Spartans missed a free throw, then got snubbed of at least .5 seconds on the last possession.

Bracket predictions

Here it is, the moment you’ve all been waiting for.  I present to you my bracket in all its glory.  Though I usually do terrible at this, I’m throwing it out there for all to criticize.

Click the bracket to see full size.

First thoughts on the bracket

I haven’t really looked closely at the bracket and probably won’t do so until Tuesday.  But after watching the Selection Show, here are my first thoughts:

- Florida over Virginia Tech?  That may be the biggest problem with this bracket.  Virginia Tech had four fewer losses, finished 10-6 in a tougher conference and had 23 wins.  Not only is Florida in, but they are a 10 seed.

- Duke gets the easy path.  Somehow the committee thought that a five-loss Duke team was more justified to play in an easy region than a four-loss Syracuse.  Villanova, Baylor and Purdue make up the rest of the top four in the South.

- Tennessee and San Diego State both get snubbed.  The Aztecs won the difficult Mountain West, beating New Mexico and UNLV along the way, yet somehow ended up with an 11 seed.  The Vols beat two one seeds, yet end up with a 6 seed instead of a 3 or 4.  Not only are they both lower than they should be, they have to play each other.

- Villanova has lost five of its past seven including being dumped in its first Big East tournament game, yet the ‘Cats somehow ended up with a 2 seed.

- Temple and Cornell should not have to play each other.  Cornell had a strong nonconference schedule and lost just four games.  Temple just won the Atlantic 10.

Check back later in the week if you want to copy my bracket.