NL East – fightin’Phils finally fall

It’s March (almost, but I’m very impatient), and that means two things: the world’s best three-week tournament, and spring training.  You’ll hear plenty from me about the former between now and March 18, but right now I’m turning your attention to the latter.  It’s time for my annual MLB predictions.  Last year I correctly predicted in March that the New York Yankees would be the last team standing in October.  This year I go for two straight.  Let the most meaningless of baseball games begin this week as the most meaningful of basketball games do the same.

Tonight, it’s the National League East.

NL East

1)  New York Mets – You think the Yankees lineup is good?  Newsflash: it’s not even the best in the city.  Nothing says resurgence like a healthy Mets lineup, and that’s what Jerry Manuel is hoping to have this time around.  Jason Bay might be the best all-around hitter in the division, and Daniel Murphy is the first baseman after the departure of Carlos Delgado.  The starting pitching is the biggest question mark, but if they can tread water until Carlos Beltran returns in May, they’ll be in good shape to finally fend off the fightin’Phils in a considerably weaker NL East.

2)  Philadelphia Phillies – The Roy Halladay deal wasn’t all that impressive considering how well Cliff Lee was pitching for them down the stretch, but they needed someone to anchor a rotation that is otherwise average at best.  Like the Mets, the Phillies look like they are once again going to have to outscore teams.  Placido Polanco is a great contact hitter, and Danys Baez should help a weak bullpen, especially if Brad Lidge isn’t ready for opening day.  The Phillies will come up just short in the quest for a fourth straight division title.

3)  Atlanta Braves - There’s a huge drop off between second and third, but I give the Braves the edge to barely oust the Marlins for the coveted middle child spot.  The Melky Cabrera addition doesn’t impress me.  He’s only a lifetime .269 hitter with a .336 OBP, but he may do better without the big spotlight.  Losing Javier Vazquez was big, but top to bottom, the rotation can still compete with anyone in the division.  Keep your eye on Tommy Hanson this year.  He went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 116 strikeouts as a rookie.  He could be the team’s ace by season’s end.

4)  Florida Marlins – Please take a look at Florida’s depth chart and tell me if there’s any way this team can crack .500.  I say no, but I’ve said no before and somehow that small-market team from South Beach continues to impress.  Josh Johnson is a Cy Young candidate and Anibel Sanchez is solid, but they won’t be able to score.  Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez will be asked to start everyday and must prove themselves before I can give them respect.  They also have bullpen issues, and will again turn to Leo Nunez to try to finish games.

5)  Washington Nationals – The good news in D.C. is that things can’t get any worse.  Jason Marquis becomes the ace of the staff, and guess what D.C. fans…he has never missed the playoffs in his career!  He will this year, though they should be better.  This offseason they signed Adam Kennedy, Eddie Guardado, Ivan Rodriguez, Willie Taveras and Chien-Ming Wang in an effort to put a team together using only junkyard players.  Jordan Zimmerman will miss most of the season with an elbow injury.

Tomorrow:  NL Central Predictions

College basketball picks – Feb. 27

Ducks not flying together this offseason

Ducks fly together.

It’s the motto that helped Gordon Bombay’s little league hockey team win the district championship in the film Mighty Ducks.  Apparently that motto never made it to Eugene, Oregon.

Chip Kelly’s football “Ducks” look more like a scattered cluster than a flock.  Plagued by off-field issues since being trampled by underdog Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, the Oregon football Ducks are getting their wings clipped.

More like severed, actually.

All this coming when it seemed Oregon would put a stranglehold on a conference dominated for years by USC.  The Ducks are being picked as a preseason top five team in nearly every “way too early” poll you look at.  But the unraveling just won’t stop.

It started On Jan. 24, just three weeks after the Rose Bowl embarrassment.  Police charged sophomore kicker Rob Beard with assault when he entered a 20-person fight to help former kicker Mike Bowlin.  Beard was knocked unconscious, had to spend two days in intensive care, and had facial surgery.  Bowlin left the team after the brawl.

That same weekend, starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and wide receiver Garrett Embry were accused of stealing computers, a guitar and a projector from the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity house, supposedly because members of the house kicked Embry out earlier at a party.  Police have not made any arrests yet.

Six days later, policed charged defensive end Matt Simms for misdemeanor assault after Simms attacked a person he thought was involved in the Jan. 24 brawl with Beard.  Kelly dismissed Simms from the team.

Last Wednesday, police arrested star running back LaMichael James after a fight with his girlfriend and charged him with strangulation, assault and physical harassment.

On Saturday, policed arrested and charged linebacker Kristian Kiko Alonso for driving under the influence of alcohol.  In response to a rumor that Kelly decided to dismiss Alonso from the team, wide receiver Jamere Holland posted several derogatory and expletive comments on his Facebook page, blasting the coach, the program and students who didn’t support him.  He has since deleted those posts, but it was too late.  Kelly kicked Holland off the team.

If all that wasn’t bad enough, Kelly got into a verbal argument during a radio interview with Portland Oregonian John Canzano.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, it means at least three players won’t be showing up to spring practice.  It could be more if Kelly decides to take action against Masoli or James.  It could cost them a Pac 10 title.  It could have no effect.

But it has put a black eye on the program.

And it’s on Kelly to get the Ducks flying together again.

Bucks making push with Salmons move

As a relatively quiet and unsurprising trade deadline passed, most of the buzz seemed to be focused on Tracy McGrady headed to New York or the big trade that brought Antawn Jamison to Cleveland.  But neither was the best trade made in the deadline scramble.  That honor goes to the Milwaukee Bucks for the trade made with Chicago to acquire John Salmons.

Salmons was relatively unknown during his first few years in the league.  He had somewhat of a breakout season last year with Sacramento, upping is points per game average from 12 to 18.  The Kings were out of the playoff race, so they traded him to Chicago mid-season, where Salmons helped the Bulls reach the playoffs with steady shooting, as well as four rebounds and two assists per game.

If Salmons gets shots, he will knock them down.  He is a career 44 percent shooter and has had only one season shooting under 40 percent.  But he has always benefitted playing on a team without a prolific scorer.  That’s why he was able to fit in out west in Sacramento, and why he played so well in Chicago last season.  But the emergence of Tyreke Evans forced him out of Sacramento, and now that Derrick Rose is taking more shots, it was again time to dump the underrated sharpshooter from South Beach.

Enter Milwaukee.  A team without that prolific scorer.  A young team with potential through the roof, but thirsting for scoring to make a playoff push.  It was obvious that Salmons would fit in beautifully by playing for his northern neighbor, and he hasn’t disappointed.  He has almost 18 points per game since joining the Bucks, and Milwaukee is 3-0 since trading for him.  In case you’re wondering, Jamison is averaging just 10 points through two games, both losses, with Cleveland and McGrady, though averaging more points, is 0-2 with the Knicks.

Putting Salmons on the floor with potential Rookie of the Year Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut makes for quite a dynamic trio.  But that wasn’t all the Bucks received.  They got 2011 and 2012 second round picks from Chicago as well, and they also traded Jodie Meeks for a 2010 second round pick.  So now, the Bucks have an additional pick in each of the next three drafts, so they will only be getting better over time.

Not that they aren’t good now.  At 27-28, they currently hold the eighth seed in the East.  If we’re keeping track since the trade deadline, they are 3-0.

Salmons is a big reason for that.

College basketball picks – Feb. 20

Imagine “BCS Madness” in basketball

Every day brings about an argument with my roommates about sports.  These days, a visitor would likely hear me quibbling with one of them over the number of Big East teams that deserve to be dancing in March.  During the college football season, the arguments predictably led to a debate over the current playoff system.

Which is why my eyes lit up when my roommate suggested what very few, if any, had ever thought of.

“What if college basketball used the BCS system?” he asked.

Hmm…what if?

I should say right now that I love March Madness.  The tournament is a lot of fun, and I would never want to see it go away.  But before you dismiss the following idea, consider the proposal below.

Let’s say college basketball did use the BCS system.  There would be no tournament.  The two best teams out of 347 Division 1 teams would play for the national championship.  As for the rest?  The next 32 could play in the NIT perhaps.  Or maybe I develop “bowl” games for the 62 next-best.  Either way, it’s not important.  What is important is how college basketball would determine its national champion.

My roommate and I agree that if the BCS is used, it would have to triple the field to six eligible teams because there are about three times as many D1 basketball schools (347) as FBS football schools (120).  So six teams make the BCS championship, and the champion is determined as follows:

#6 at #3 (winner plays at #2)
#5 at #4 (winner plays at #1)

Winner of 1 vs 4/5 plays winner of 2 vs 3/6 on a neutral court for the title.

Easy enough.

Now on to how to determine the six eligible teams.

The BCS uses the Coaches Poll, Harris Poll and average of six BCS computers to determine the football rankings.  In college basketball, there is a Coaches Poll but not a Harris Poll.  I suggest replacing Harris with RPI.  Though I think the AP Poll is more valid than the Coaches Poll, using both AP and Coaches Polls would not be good because the top six are usually identical.

Four of the six BCS computers also rank college basketball teams (Anderson & Hester and Richard Billingsley do not), so I can use the same computer methods. Ken Pomeroy will be used as a fifth computer.  Because there are only five computers, I will throw out only the median ranking, rather than the highest and/or lowest.

So who would be eligible to play for a national championship right now?

The top six in the Coaches Poll are Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova, Purdue, Syracuse and Duke.

The RPI reads Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova.

All five computers have Kansas ranked #1.  Since both the Coaches and RPI also have the Jayhawks #1, it’s easy to give them the #1 seed in the basketball BCS.  Their average is 1.

Kentucky does not do too well in the computer rankings.  Only the Colley Matrix has the Wildcats #2.  The median is 4 and the average is 4.5.  Averaging together with the Coaches and RPI gives them a 3.17.

Pomeroy’s computer is going to bring Villanova down.  The Wildcats are ranked #15 in that computer, bring the computer average to 5.75 and the overall average to 4.92.

Purdue got a big win over Ohio State Wednesday, but they are still a consistent 6 in all but one computer, giving them a 5.75 computer average.  Overall, the Boilermakers are a 6.25 because of their low RPI.

Syracuse has a huge game with Georgetown tonight that could alter the rankings, but for now, the Orange have a computer average of 3.25 and an overall average of 4.08.

Duke is ranked sixth in the Coaches Poll but has the #2 RPI.  The Blue Devils have a computer average of 4.5 and an overall average of 4.17.

Outside the top six, West Virginia seems to be the most likely contender.  However, the computers spit out an average of 8.67 for the Mountaineers, giving them an overall average of 6.89.  Purdue’s 6.25 barely beats West Virginia for the sixth spot.

The only other team in consideration is Kansas State.  The Wildcats’computer average is 9.25, pulling the overall average down to 7.75.

So the six teams in the tournament happen to be the top six in the Coaches Poll.  The matchups are as follows:

(6) Purdue at (3) Syracuse
(5) Villanova at (4) Duke

Purdue/Syracuse at (2) Kentucky
Villanova/Duke at (1) Kansas

Championship on neutral court

I know you are lying if you say you would be even the slightest bit intrigued by this.  Imagine how West Virginia fans would feel.  The Mountaineers are the TCU of college basketball.  Then again, West Virginia did lose to Purdue, who has the sixth and final spot.

How fun would it be to watch college basketball every night, knowing that a loss by any of the top six could make way for #7 or #8 to slide up into the field.

Consider reducing the field to four teams.  Then Villanova, ranked #3 in the Coaches Poll, would be out.

Again, this is purely just for fun.  Everyone imagines what it would be like if college football used college basketball’s system.

Thank you, roomie, for making me imagine the opposite.  Even for just one day.

Bubble growing with one month to go

Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday.  To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up.  Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day.  For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.”  In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.

At large locks:

ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland

Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier

Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas

Conference USA (1)
UAB

Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV

SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s

This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs.  Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.

1)  Rhode Island Rams – That’s right.  The strongest bubble team is the Rams.  With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses.  The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.

2)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses.  They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.

3)  Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s.  The Tigers’strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI.  They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.

4)  Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers.  They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4.  They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference.  The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.

5)  Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January.  Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M.  The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.

6)  Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them.  However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.

7)  Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth.  Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it.  They are tied for sixth in the ACC.

8)  Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in.  The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44.  The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.

9)  Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State.  Four of the Rebels’seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI.  The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.

10)  Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout.  Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time.  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.

11)  Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27.  Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins.  Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.

On the outside looking in:

Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina

Brendan is burning

Guest columnist Brendan Wilson

I have always wanted to be in Jim Rome’s shoes for a day while he hosts his show.  I guess this blog will be the closest opportunity I get.  Here are five topics that I am burning on…

One month from tomorrow (March 14), is selection Sunday.  Although Duke is winning the ACC and their three-headed monster of Singler, Scheyer and Smith are the top scoring trio in all of college basketball, they also are averaging over 11 more combined minutes than any other three-player combination in college basketball.  Now for a team who hasn’t made it to the elite eight in years and has been a one, two, three or four seed every year, desperate times seem to call for…desperate minutes?  Mike Krzyzewski, my suggestion is to cut your starters minutes in the remaining month.  If it drops you one more game, then it drops you one more game.  These players are not going to have anything left in the tank come March, which is why I see another early exit for the Blue Devils in the tournament.

Although I was too busy watching the Pittsburgh-West Virginia three overtime thriller tonight, I did see the extended highlights of the NBA Celebrity game.  This game has turned into even more of a joke than I already thought it to be.  Terrell Owens, who was easily the best athlete on either roster, cherry-picked the entire game in attempt to win his third consecutive MVP award.  Charles Barkley spent the night trying to get Shaq and Dwight Howard in a fight by making arguments for the who the true “superman” is.  Tyreke Evans somehow won the MVP even though Westbrook had 40 points and Blair had a 20-20 performance.  The only reason the rookies won was because D-Rose didn’t even play because of his injury.  In addition, Brandon Jennings either needs a new barber, or his current barber needs a new profession, or both.  The NBA needs to find a way for the people who actually do tune in to watch this game, to stay tuned in.

Frank Thomas officially called it a career Friday afternoon at U.S. Cellular field in Chicago.  I heard debating today on whether he is a hall of famer.  It is ridiculous that this is even being debated.  He is a first ballot hall of famer.  A career .301 batting average, with 521 home runs, more than 1,700 RBI’s, a .555 slugging percentage and most importantly, not traced to steroids.  This is the best player statistically in White Sox history.  He spent 16 seasons on the south side  and finally won a World Series ring in 2005 in a limited role.  Anyone who says this guy is not a hall of famer needs to explain to me how some other players have been accepted in.

The UConn’s woman’s basketball team currently has a 64-game win streak intact and is on their way to making history.  The longest win streak in sports history is UCLA men’s basketball win streak of 88 games from 1971-1974.  The longest win streak in women’s college basketball history is UConn as well, winning 70 straight from 2001-2003.  This current team is probably the best women’s basketball team I have personally ever seen step foot on the floor.  My issue here isn’t UConn, it is their opponents.  When a team is winning by an average margin of 39.3 points per game (the highest ever), why would you want to run with this team?  I continue to see teams push the ball and try to stay with UConn in a full-court game.  This is not the way to beat any team who has any sort of momentum, especially a win streak like this one.  A suggestion for future UConn women’s basketball opponents; slow down the game, play a half-court game, limit turnovers and call a timeout if there is any run that exceeds 7-0.

The UCLA Bruins should not be in the discussion to make the NCAA tournament.  Period.  Their RPI is 131 and they really do not have any impressive wins.  They beat a struggling Arizona State team earlier in the season.  Yet today on College Gameday, the five “bubblelicious” teams included the 11-12 Bruins.  Just like North Carolina has no business in the tournament, neither does UCLA.  If the committee screws this one up, they have problems.

College basketball picks – Feb. 13

Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion news

Check out the following articles about the Big Ten looking into expanding with Texas, the Pac 10 taking Colorado and/or a Mountain West school, and new replacements for the Big 12 when Missouri likely leaves.

Pac 10 commish: Now is the time to consider expansion
Pac 10 could launch cannonball on non-BCS with conference cannibalism
Expansion would boost Pac 10 but leave wake of disruption
It’s finally out there: Texas to the Big Ten
More expansion: a proposed new look