The AFC Wild Card playoff picture is as complicated as its ever been headed into week 17. Seven teams still have a chance to earn two Wild Card spots, and all are within a game of each other. In the NFC, the six teams are set, but the seeds are yet to be determined.
A crazy complication of tiebreakers and weird results could lead to a bizarre set of circumstances. It is possible, if everything goes a certain way, that all four NFL Wild Card games played Jan. 10 and 11 could be rematches of week 17 matchups.
This is more likely to happen in the NFC, so I’ll start there. The Green Bay Packers travel to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a #4 seed regardless of what happens in week 17. They lose the tiebreaker with the Cowboys should both teams finish 11-5. Green Bay can earn a #5 seed, thus coming right back to Arizona in round one of the playoffs, with an Eagles’ victory over Dallas. In a weird set of circumstances, the Packers actually have no control over their fate as a #5 or #6 seed. They win the tiebreaker with the Cowboys because of their head-to-head victory over Dallas. So if both teams lose, they would both finish 10-6, and Green Bay would win the tiebreaker. A Green Bay win puts them at 11-5, but they would be a #6 seed if the Cowboys win, because Dallas would win the division at 11-5, thus dropping the Eagles to the other Wild Card spot. The Eagles at 11-5 would win the tiebreaker over the Packers because Green Bay lost to Tampa Bay earlier this season.
In other words, the Eagles need to go into Dallas and beat the Cowboys, setting up a rematch between the Packers and Cardinals on Wild Card weekend.
The Eagles and Cowboys also play in week 17. The Eagles cannot get a #6 seed, and the Cowboys cannot get a #5 seed. If the Cowboys win, they win the division and earn a #3 seed, winning the tiebreaker over Arizona. However, if the Eagles win, they win the division at 12-4 and the Cowboys fall to a #6 seed. The Eagles can get a first round bye with a win and a Minnesota loss in Chicago tomorrow or at home against the New York Giants in week 17. In order to see a Cowboys/Eagles rematch, the Vikings have to win both of its games in addition to the Eagles winning.
In the AFC, it’s a bit more complicated. The Cincinnati Bengals head to New York to face the Jets, while the New England Patriots head to Houston to finish up with the Texans. Both of those games could wind up happening again in round one of the playoffs. The only way for this to happen is if the Texans and Jets both win, and the Steelers, Broncos and Ravens all lose. The Jets beat Houston in week one, so they would get the #5 seed and travel to Cincinnati, who loses a tiebreaker with New England. That means the Texans would earn a #6 seed and go to Boston to face the Patriots.
If the Jets lose, we can’t see a rematch. A Jets loss would mean Pittsburgh would have to lose to Miami, but that can’t happen because Miami would then earn the advantage over the Jets since ties are broken within the division first. The Texans lose the tiebreaker to the Broncos, so they need to finish one game ahead of Denver.
To recap, here’s what needs to happen in order for the four Wild Card games to be rematches of week 17 games:
- Minnesota needs to win at Chicago, and vs the Giants on week 17
- Philadelphia needs to win at Dallas
- Denver needs to lose vs Kansas City
- Baltimore needs to lose at Oakland
- Pittsburgh needs to lose at Miami
- The Jets need to win vs Cincinnati
- Houston needs to win vs New England
Eight games need to go a certain way, but if your team is already eliminated, why not root for that?
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