College football picks – No BCS for USC

When the Ducks beat the Trojans on Saturday night, it will end USC’s hopes of winning the Pac 10 championship and returning to the Rose Bowl.  Their BCS streak will be over, and it will be somewhat funny seeing them in the Holiday Bowl before New Year’s.  How gross would it be to see an Oregon/Iowa Rose Bowl?  Well get ready nation, it just might happen.

(24) Mississippi 30, Auburn 24

(1) Florida 34, Georgia 20

(18) Miami 31, Wake Forest 7

(3) Texas 35, Oklahoma State 26

(10) Oregon 28, (4) USC 24

UPSET SPECIAL:  Southern Mississippi 35, (15) Houston 31

Last Week:  4-2
Overall:  30-18
Upsets:  5-3

Hawkeyes deserve to be #3

You may have noticed that I have Iowa ranked #3 in my latest college football rankings.  That looks bad after Iowa needed a last second play to beat Michigan State, while Texas blew out Missouri in Columbia.  The reality is, I’ve been stupid not to put Iowa head for the past few weeks.

Iowa has wins against Penn State in Happy Valley, Wisconsin in Madison, and Michigan State in East Lansing.  The last team to do that was Michigan in 1997.  As for Texas?  They have road wins over…Wyoming and Missouri?  Neither of those teams are ranked in the top 60 in the computers.

Iowa played and beat two nonconference BCS teams (Iowa State and Arizona) that have a combined record of 10-5.  Oh by the way, both of those teams are in the top 60 in the computers. Texas did not play a single BCS conference team.

Speaking of rankings, Iowa has defeated two teams ranked in the BCS top 20.  Texas hasn’t played a single ranked team.  The reason the Longhorns are ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes is because the human voters don’t look at the schedules.  They base their decisions on what the AP writers decide early on in the season.

That’s the wrong way to do it, and that’s why the computers are a better determining factor.  The computers look at what has happened so far.  They ignore prestige, Heisman candidates, and preseason expectations.  If the computers were the only rankings used, Iowa would be #1 and Texas would be #5.  The human polls have too much influence, and it is clearly being demonstrated by ranking Texas ahead of Iowa.

Iowa’s average opponent so far this year is ranked #48.  Texas’average opponent is ranked #72.  If Iowa and Texas both win out, it would be hard for me to watch a national championship game with Texas in it, knowing Iowa deserves it.  But that’s what will happen, because the human polls are two-thirds of the BCS standings.

College football rankings – Oct. 26

Longhorn fans, hate me all you want.  Your team is now #4 in the most prestigious rankings in the country.  This despite a 34 point blowout road win.  Gator fans, hate me all you want.  Your team is still #2, despite Alabama’s near collapse against the Vols.  Bronco fans, hate me now.  Your team is #6, despite a blowout win on the island.  Yes, my rankings may make your head scratch and your forehead wrinkle.  But there’s justification here.  Boise State hasn’t played anybody, prompting Iowa to jump them.  Alabama has still played better teams than Florida.  And I’ll explain the Texas setback in a blog post tomorrow, for it is the one that could mean the most come Dec. 6.

1)  Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) – I picked the Vols to win, and they probably should have.  But they didn’t.  Alabama’s defense was stiff enough in another quality win.  They get a bye week to prepare for LSU’s trip to Tuscaloosa.

2)  Florida Gators (7-0) – Something is off with the offense.  Playing a relatively weak SEC schedule, they have broken 30 just once in five conference games.  Red zone offense has been a problem.  In 35 trips, they have only 16 touchdowns.

3)  Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0) – The Hawkeyes are 8-0 for the first time ever after beating a hot Michigan State team in East Lansing.  It’s not pretty, but this team finds ways to win.  The offense, ranked #87 in the country, needs to play better.

4)  Texas Longhorns (7-0) – Colt McCoy is closing in on the all time FBS wins record after an impressive 41-7 win against Missouri.  It’s Texas’first well-played game in the conference, and it comes just in time.  They go to Stillwater next.

5)  Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0) – Can we still say Cincinnati is flying under the radar?  They are blowing teams out while making their best case for a title shot.  After Syracuse, things get tough with games against UConn, West Virginia and Pitt.

6)  Boise State Broncos (7-0) – If the Broncos want any prayer of playing for a national championship, they’ll need four teams ahead of them on this list to lose.  They are winning by similar margins against much worse teams – simple as that.

7)  LSU Tigers (6-1) – LSU came off the bye week by throttling Auburn.  Their only loss is Florida, and they’ve allowed 20+ points just twice.  They go to Alabama in two weeks and can still control their own destiny to a conference championship.

8)  Oregon Ducks (6-1) – The Ducks continue to roll.  Jeremiah Masoli came back this week to throw for 157 yards and a touchdown, and added two rushing touchdowns too.  If they beat USC Saturday, The Trojans will miss a BCS game.

9)  Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) – Hammering Michigan by 25 in the Big House will get you back on track.  Penn State’s defense is the reason they are beating teams up.  They are #3 in the nation, allowing just 240 yards per game.

10)  TCU Horned Frogs (7-0) – The Horned Frogs’four biggest wins have come on the road.  After blowing out BYU in Provo, TCU should finish 12-0.  Will the BCS take both them and an undefeated Boise State team?

11)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) – The Texas A&M win looks better after A&M blew out Texas Tech in Lubbock, but otherwise it hasn’t been much of a schedule for the Cowboys.  A win this week puts them in control of the south.

12)  USC Trojans (6-1) - Maybe my expectations are too high for this team, but I just don’t think one possession wins are good enough against the Pac 10.  Matt Barkley’s two interceptions are concerning, as is the defense all of a sudden.

13)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-1) – Virginia was the only remaining unbeaten in the ACC until Georgia Tech crushed them.  With the Miami loss, the Yellow Jackets are now in line to win the Coastal if they can beat Wake and Duke.

14)  Houston Cougars (6-1) – It’s time to start seriously considering Case Keenum for Heisman.  He leads the nation in total offense, completions per game, passing yards per game and is second in touchdown passes.

15)  Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) – A solid win over South Florida topped with a lot of one loss teams going down bumps Pitt up to 15.  They now enter a stretch in which they play just two games in 33 days.  The showdown with Cincy is Dec. 5.

16)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2) – The Hokies still have that bitter taste in their mouths from the Georgia Tech loss, but can still win the ACC with some help.  Ryan Williams averages six yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns already.

17)  Miami Hurricanes (5-2) – The ‘Canes just couldn’t shake Clemson, and eventually lost the game in overtime.  An uncharacteristic defense gave up 410 yards, and Jacory Harris threw three interceptions for Miami.

18)  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2) – Terrelle Pryor needed a huge game after the Purdue meltdown, and he delivered.  Pryor went 13-25 for 239 yards and two touchdowns.  He also ran for 104 yards and a score in the win over Minnesota.

19)  West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1) - The Mountaineers are quietly playing well since the Auburn loss and are undefeated in the Big East.  They still have Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers, but first is a trip to South Florida.

20)  Utah Utes (6-1) – Here’s a team that has lost to the only good team it has played, yet sits at #19 at 6-1.  Utah is doing all the right things to win, as they showed in overtime against Air Force.  They still go to Provo and Fort Worth.

21)  South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) – Steve Spurrier is eking out wins, but he’ll tell you that against the SEC, winning is all that matters.  They outgained Vanderbilt by 158 yards and were turnover-free, yet needed a late TD to hold on.

22)  BYU Cougars (6-2) – I don’t think anyone saw that coming.  BYU failed to show up against TCU, leaving them all but out of the Mountain West championship hunt.  Five TCU players scored in a game that was over after the first quarter.

23)  Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) – Despite not having won since Oct. 3, the Badgers are back in the rankings after a few two loss teams fell this week.  For Wisconsin, 10-2 is a legitimate possibility, although this season, who knows?

24) Kansas Jayhawks (5-2) – Two weeks ago they looked like they could challenge for a BCS game.  Now they’re thinking bowl eligibility and maybe a north title after OU blows them out.  Kansas fans should be looking toward basketball.

25)  Central Michigan (7-1) – Why not?  Butch Jones has the Chippewas at 7-1 going into the showdown at Boston College.  They have a win at Michigan State and played Arizona tough in the desert.  They’ve also won seven in a row.

College football picks – TCU falls

TCU has made its way through a cupcake schedule without a blemish so far, but they haven’t played a team like BYU yet.  The Cougars made a splash with a 14-13 win over OU in Dallas on kickoff weekend, then have quietly flown under the radar after a blowout loss to Florida State.  Max Hall has already thrown for over 2,000 yards, good for third in the nation.  Harvey Unga is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has nine rushing touchdowns.  The offense is averaging 35 points per game.  All in all, this team is clicking.  Meanwhile, TCU has struggled, especially on the road.  They’ve won their three road games by a combined 23 points against teams that are a combined 10-9.  The offense finally woke up last week in the drubbing of Colorado State, but what they will be able to do against a good team remains to be seen.  Last year TCU knocked BYU out of the BCS picture with a 32-7 win in Fort Worth.  BYU will return the favor this year.

(9) LSU 32, Auburn 25

(22) West Virginia 38, Connecticut 21

(20) Pittsburgh 40, South Florida 20

(13) Penn State 24, Michigan 23

(16) BYU 28, (10) TCU 21

UPSET SPECIAL:  Tennessee 27, (1) Alabama 24

Last week:  3-3
Overall:  26-16
Upsets:  5-2

College football rankings – Oct. 19

Same $***, different week.

That’s about all I can say after finding out that the coaches inexcusably ranked Florida #1 despite a dreadful performance in Gainesville against inferior Arkansas.  They must not know about Alabama, the team with the number one defense in America.  The team that has held four of its past five opponents to 7 points or fewer.  The team with road wins against Kentucky and Ole Miss, a neutral site victory against Virginia Tech, and wins against South Carolina, and that same Arkansas team by 28.  Florida’s only good win has been LSU, and they could still lose three more times.  Point is, it should be the AP guys who have BCS influence.  They got it right.  Again.  The coaches aren’t paying attention.  Good thing I am.  On to the rankings…

1)  Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) – It was foolish of me not to have them #1 last week, but they left no doubt with a dominating 20-6 win over South Carolina.  All of a sudden, Florida can’t score on Arkansas.  How will they score on Alabama?

2)  Florida Gators (6-0) – Gator fans are sending personalized thank you cards to Alex Tejada after he single-handedly kept Florida unbeaten Saturday.  The Razorbacks had plenty of chances, but couldn’t close.  The Hogs recorded six sacks.

3)  Texas Longhorns (6-0) – Here’s another team I’m not sure about.  In a down year for the Big 12, Texas has sleepwalked through its first three games.  Outgained by OU 311-269, the ‘Horns need to figure out what’s wrong with “O” before OSU.

4)  Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0) - The Bearcats were very impressive in a 34-17 win in Tampa.  Ask West Virginia or Kansas about playing in South Florida during the week.  It’s not easy.  A bigger issue for Cincinnti is the health of QB Tony Pike.

5)  Boise State Broncos (6-0) – Boise State has played two pretty bad games in a row, and the BCS is laughing.  They won’t have to feel obligated to put the Broncos in the discussion if they keep winning by seven points with this schedule.

6)  Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0) – I’m sold.  I had this team pegged for three losses by now, but they just keep winning ugly.  They held Wisconsin to 230 yards of offense, controlled the clock and scored 20 unanswered points after falling behind 10-0.

7)  Miami Hurricanes (5-1) – The ‘Canes enjoyed their second breather in a row, cruising to a 27-7 win at Central Florida.  They should have a third cupcake this week with Clemson, but have to go to Wake, UNC and South Florida this year.

8)  LSU Tigers (5-1) – The Tigers enjoyed the week off in preparation for Auburn.  They’ve already beaten three BCS conference schools on the road – all by one possession – and still go to Ole Miss and Alabama this season.  Trouble.

9)  USC Trojans (5-1) – What is the love affair with USC?  Fourth?  Really?  Remember, this is the same team that lost to Washington, a team that is 3-4 now.  I will give them credit for road wins against Ohio State, California and Notre Dame.

10)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) – The loss by Oklahoma leaves Oklahoma State and Texas as the only two unbeaten teams in Big 12 play.  Assuming both take care of business this weekend, it should make for an epic showdown in Stillwater.

11)  Oregon Ducks (5-1) – The Ducks get two weeks to prepare for their trip up north to face Washington.  If they win, then comes a chance at virtually eliminating USC from Rose Bowl contention.  My my, if it wasn’t for that Boise State game…

12)  Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) – The Iowa loss looks more legit every week.  So does this team’s defense, holding opponents to 7 or fewer in five of seven games.  They still need to win out and get some help if they want to smell roses.

13)  TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) – After taking a few weeks off, TCU finally showed up against Colorado State.  They outgained CSU 499-182 in the 38 point blowout.  The game of the week this week is a Mountain West game as TCU heads to Provo.

14)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) - The Jackets put three SEC schools on the schedule this year and finish with 11 straight against BCS conference teams.  The huge win over Virginia Tech put them back in discussion for a BCS bowl.

15)  BYU Cougars (6-1) – Oklahoma and Florida State have been down, so the schedule hasn’t been as impressive as the Cougars would have hoped.  Still, the TCU game Saturday should put them in the national spotlight again.

16)  Houston Cougars (6-1) – It’s hard to believe that a one-loss Conference USA team could be ranked this high just halfway through the season.  But they’ve earned it after playing three BCS conference teams and winning them all.

17)  Kansas Jayhawks (5-1) – Right behind the number one offense in America is number two.  Reesing, Brizcoe and Meier did their part against Colorado, but the defense played really bad again.  It’s a Big 12 loss KU couldn’t afford to have.

18)  Virginia Tech Hokies (4-2) – Um, run defense?  Virginia Tech forgot to bring theirs to Atlanta, giving up 309 yards on the ground to Georgia Tech.  The Hokies’schedule gets easier as they chase another ACC crown.  UNC is next.

19)  Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1) – Dion Lewis is going to be a Heisman candidate before his college career is over.  The freshman ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns in Pitt’s win at Rutgers.  He is up to third in the nation in rushing.

20)  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-2) – Purdue was just 1-5 on the year before pulling off the Ohio State upset, leaving Illinois has the only Big 12 winless team.  For the Buckeyes, winning out still gives them the conference title and a Rose Bowl berth.

21)  Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) – Since losing back to back road games in their home state, the Red Raiders have outscored opponents 142-52.  In their first game out of the state, new QB Steven Sheffield ripped the ‘Huskers for three TDs.

22)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-2) – Nebraska got absolutely embarrassed by Texas Tech at home, and failed to take advantage of a Kansas loss in the process.  The normally stout defense allowed 31 points after allowing just 40 all year.

23)  West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) – After the Auburn loss, it didn’t look like the Mountaineers were going to be very good.  But they’ve managed a 5-1 start thanks to Noel Divine’s 6.4 yards per carry.  Nothing but Big East games remain.

24)  Utah Utes (5-1) - I’m still not convinced that this team can play with anyone in the top 25, but they’ve won the games they’re supposed to win.  They have road games against TCU and BYU two of the final three weeks of the season.

25)  South Florida Bulls (5-1) – The Bulls couldn’t get anything going, specifically in the second half, against Cincinnati.  They’ll have plenty of chances to jump right back in the mix with West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Miami still to come.

College football picks – Sooners are ready

The alleged “game of the year” has lost some luster with two Bradford-less losses by the Sooners, but this Red River Shootout still has a lot riding on it.  For Texas, a win means an inside track to a division title, Big 12 title and national championship shot.  But as we know (see 2007 season), a two loss team can’t necessarily be counted out of anything.  A win puts the Sooners close to the top 10 again with plenty of season left.  It also means they would have to lose twice to lose the south.  Actually, maybe not (see 2008 season).  Texas remembers beating Oklahoma last year, then losing the division because Texas Tech decided to pick ’08 for a breakout season, screwing up the division tiebreaker in the process.  Texas wants revenge for the…win…they got last year.  Oklahoma wants revenge for…karma…losing their Heisman winning QB.  The Sooners are the most dangerous #20 in college football history.  This game should be classic.

On another very sad note, the Wolverines’inability to complete their final drive in Iowa City last week meant that my upsets are no longer perfect.  Trying to get back on track this week with the picks…

(6) USC 34, (25) Notre Dame 21

(2) Alabama 30, (22) South Carolina 9

(21) South Florida 31, (8) Cincinnati 28

(4) Virginia Tech 33, (19) Georgia Tech 23

(3) Texas 28, (20) Oklahoma 25

UPSET SPECIAL:  Missouri 33, (16) Oklahoma State 24

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  23-13
Upsets:  5-1

10 college football games I’d love to see

The nonconference season is over except for a few games sprinkled in here and there.  Here are 10 games I would have loved to have seen in 2009 but didn’t.

10 - Iowa State vs Auburn because if Gene Chizik loses to his former team, Auburn will fire him, then interview Tony Dungy, Barack Obama and Albert Pujols before eventually hiring Rush Limbaugh.

9 – Washington State vs Colorado because I want to know who is the worst team among the BCS conference teams.  Too bad they both have a win already.

8 – Duke vs Idaho because both teams have better records than Florida State, Colorado, Louisville and Illinois.  Which game would draw a bigger crowd – this game at Idaho’s Kibbie Dome or a Duke basketball game at Cameron Indoor?

7 - Texas vs Mississippi because Jevan Snead could finally show Texas that they made a mistake by not playing him.  Just like he showed South Carolina.  And Alabama.  Now Texas is stuck with this McCoy guy, who by the end of the year will have more FBS wins than anyone.

6 - Florida vs St. Louis Rams because everyone knows it would be funny seeing Florida win.  It’s fair to put the Rams in this category right?  They certainly aren’t “pros.”

5 - Alabama vs Houston because no one will care that Alabama wins by 50.  Case Keenum vs the #1 defense in the nation is all that matters here.  Of course, he could throw for almost 600 yards and five touchdowns, and still lose the game (see UTEP).

4 - Nebraska vs LSU because the defenses may outscore the offenses.  And because Bo Pelini would probably get a warm welcome in his return to Death Valley, right?  All kidding aside, this would actually be a very good game.

3 – Texas vs Penn State because neither team plays anyone better than my middle school team out of conference.  And because it would be a joy watching these two coaches go easy on each other.  Neither knows how the BCS system works – a.k.a neither coach knows how to run up the score.

2 – TCU vs anyone in the top 25 because three point wins over dismal ACC schools won’t help your BCS cause.  Neither will three point wins over Mountain West schools, although that conference may carry more merit than the ACC.

1 – Boise State vs anyone in the top 10 because after the Broncos flee flicker four times, do football’s hidden ball trick and not have any players get punched after the game, the nation will know that this team deserves its title shot.

College football rankings – Oct. 12

By this point in the season, every team except two have played a bad game.  I’ve had those two teams ranked 1-2 all season.  The AP finally woke up from a five week coma and put Alabama at #2.  It’s a shame that the Tide and Gators can’t play for the national championship because after those two, there is a distinct dropoff in college football.  Penn State, USC, Texas, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech are the top teams in the other five big conferences, but none of them can touch the top two.  Not right now anyway.  So if you want your true national championship game, tune in Dec. 5 when the Gators and Crimson Tide meet at the Georgia Dome.  But just for giggles, and because I do it every week, I’ll rank 23 other teams too.

1)  Florida Gators (5-0) – The predictable Gators didn’t have Tim Tebow at his best Saturday, but that’s why you have a #1 ranked defense, right?  Florida’s “D” gets an “A” in Baton Rouge.  The game in Columbia Nov. 14 could mean a lot.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) – I read an article on CBS Sports saying ‘Bama should be #1.  I wouldn’t be able to argue that after the ‘Tide truck Ole Miss in Oxford.  They forced four Jevan Snead picks and rushed for 200+ yards.

3)  Texas Longhorns (5-0) – The defense and special teams outscored the offense in a lackluster home win over a terrible Colorado team.  The ‘Horns had just 46 rushing yards on 25 carries.  Play like that again and OU will win Saturday.

4)  Boise State Broncos (5-0) – They are getting no love from the voters, but they are one of the most talented teams in America.  Kellen Moore is second in the nation in pass efficiency and has 13 TDs.  They travel to Tulsa on Wednesday.

5)  Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) – Tony Pike has completed 66 percent of his passes and is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game.  Their top two rushers are both averaging better than five yards per carry.  My point?  This offense is good.

6)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) – If Alabama ends up being this team’s only loss, then they have a national championship claim.  Since then, they are 5-0 and rolling.  Boston College had no chance as Virginia Tech rolled to a 34-0 halftime lead.

7)  Miami Hurricanes (4-1) – The ‘Canes get the edge over LSU because of wins over Oklahoma and Georgia Tech although the FSU win doesn’t look impressive anymore.  This week was their first breather as they bounced Florida A&M.

8)  LSU Tigers (5-1) – The Tigers couldn’t get anything going against that stout Florida defense, but took advantage of Tebow playing too soon to keep themselves in it.  They can earn a rematch by winning out, including a win in Tuscaloosa.

9)  USC Trojans (4-1) – USC is one of six Pac 10 teams with one loss, and Oregon is undefeated.  Pete Carroll isn’t used to seeing it this bunched up, which should make for an interesting finish.  First up though is a tough trip to South Bend.

10)  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) – The Bucks jump KU after an impressive victory over an improved Wisconsin team.  The defense and special teams combined for 21 of the 31 points, but Terrelle Pryor went just 5-13 with 87 yards, a TD and a pick.

11)  Kansas Jayhawks (5-0) – It certainly wasn’t pretty against lowly Iowa State.  Kerry Meier caught 16 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns to help bail out the Jayhawk D, which allowed 512 yards to the Cyclones.  Colorado is next.

12)  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0) – Give the Hawkeyes credit.  After all, they spoiled my perfect upset prediction streak.  They also beat a very good Michigan team.  Their three remaining away games are Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.

13)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) – The Georgia win doesn’t look impressive anymore, the Rice game was closer than expected, and now OSU nearly loses at Texas A&M.  The banged up Cowboys still have Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

14)  Oregon Ducks (5-1) – Oregon got it done against UCLA Saturday thanks to a kickoff return and an interception return.  It seems the theme of the week was offenses getting outscored by their defenses and special teams.

15)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) – After a stagnant first three quarters, the ‘Husker offense exploded for 27 points in the fourth.  The defense is #13 in the country and has allowed just four touchdowns.  A 4-0 Big 12 start looks likely.

16)  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) – The Lions finished their joke of a nonconference schedule by beating FCS team Eastern Illinois by 49.  Next week they play their sixth home game of the season already, against Minnesota.

17)  TCU Horned Frogs (5-0) – I grow less impressed with this team every week.  Last week it was a four point win at Clemson.  This week it’s a three point win at Air Force.  I will give them credit for three road wins though.

18)  BYU Cougars (5-1) – Harvey Unga was at it again Saturday, scoring three more touchdowns and rushing for 149 yards.  Unga has rushed for 494 yards and eight touchdowns on the year, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.  Heisman?

19)  Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) – Sam Bradford returned Saturday against Baylor, and Bob Stoops didn’t hesitate to unleash the Heisman winner.  He threw 49 passes, completing 27, for 389 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

20)  Houston Cougars (4-1) – After the Cougars lost to UTEP, the AP and coaches took them out of the rankings.  I left them in, and now they are back in both major polls after beating their third BCS conference team of the year.

21)  South Florida Bulls (5-0) - Both the Bulls and Bearcats have had 12 days to prepare for the Thursday showdown in Tampa.  After Cincinnati, South Florida’s schedule stays tough, as they get Pittsburgh and West Virginia.

22)  Auburn Tigers (5-1) – Despite getting crushed by Arkansas, the Tigers have wins over Mississippi State, West Virginia and Tennessee.  Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb both average more than six yards per carry and have combined for 1000.

23)  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) – They may not be great teams, but the Irish have played four BCS conference teams already this year, and have won three.  They got a bye at a good time – they’re about to play a great BCS team.

24)  South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) – Georgia game aside, South Carolina is finally winning all the close ones.  They’re the only other team with a prayer to win the SEC East, but first they’ll have to go to Alabama and win on Saturday.

25)  Pittsburgh Panthers (5-1) – The Pitt team today is not the same Pitt team we saw in the first three games.  Dion Lewis has slowed down, and the defense is giving up too many points.  The Big East is wide open, and Rutgers is next.

College football picks – Gators still roll

The Florida Gators will likely be without quarterback Tim Tebow when they take the field Saturday in Death Valley against #4 LSU.  For LSU, it’s good.  They had no chance if Tebow played.  Actually, they still don’t have a chance.  Their offensive line isn’t as good.  Their defensive line isn’t as good.  That’s where games are won and lost, ands that’s where this one will be lost.  Florida’s offense is number three in the nation at 526 yards per game.  LSU is ranked 99 at 321 yards per game.  Florida’s defense is number one in the nation, allowing just 212 yards.  LSU is 40 at 321 yards allowed.  Are you starting to see what I’m seeing?  Tim Tebow or no Tim Tebow, the Gators are better, and they’ll prove it Saturday with John Brantley running the show.

(17) Auburn 33, Arkansas 26

(9) Ohio State 35, Wisconsin 13

(21) Nebraska 27, (24) Missouri 16

(3) Alabama 29, (20) Mississippi 16

(1) Florida 27, (4) LSU 17

UPSET SPECIAL:  Michigan 28, (13) Iowa 27

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  19-11
Upsets:  5-0

Baseball playoff picks – Hollywood ending

I never thought I’d see a better game than Padres/Rockies in the 2007 one-game playoff.  Then the 2009 one-game playoff happened, and both the Twins and Tigers did everything they could to win…and lose the game.  Hopefully game 163 is a preview of an excellent postseason.  I think it will be.  I should preface my picks by saying that unlike college football where I’m pretty much automatic (I’m serious, check previous posts), baseball isn’t so easy to pick.  I’ve been correct in my AL World Series rep the past four years but have failed to make any kind of sense of the NL.  So here goes another year of predicting the playoffs…and likely failing miserably.

NLDS

Phillies vs Rockies – To be the champs, you have to beat the champs, and that’s the daunting task facing Jim Tracy’s club as they open with the high octane Phillies.  We know the Phillies have a loaded lineup, but will their pitching come to play?  Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ have been solid, but Cole Hamels has been inconsistent.  He went 0-2 and gave up 13 ER over his final three starts.  Charlie Manuel needs his starters to go at least six and preferably seven to avoid the bullpen as much as possible.  The Rockies are hurting.  Jorge De La Rosa will miss the series and Jason Marquis won’t pitch in Philadelphia.  The 2007 version of Rox/Phils didn’t turn out so well for the Phillies.  The 2009 version will be much better.
- Phillies in four

Dodgers vs Cardinals – The best series of the first round, and maybe the entire postseason, is this one.  These are the two best teams in the NL.  I’m trying to figure out which team would be more satisfied with a split in L.A.  From a Dodgers perspective, it will mean winning a game against Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright.  From a Cardinals perspective, it means stealing home field advantage.  If the Dodgers can split the Carp/Waino monster, things look good.  Either they face Joel Pineiro and John Smoltz or Pineiro and Carpenter on short rest.  Getting the series back to L.A. for game five will be key.  This series in an absolute toss up, but I’ll take the Dodgers.  They do the little things right, and they have a better bullpen.
- Dodgers in five

ALDS

Angels vs Red Sox – The Angels draw the Red Sox again, who own them in the postseason.  Boston has as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in the AL, and they’ll throw it at the Angels in Anaheim with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett.  They have the league leader in stolen bases (Jacoby Ellsbury), three guys hitting over .300, and plenty of guys who can hit it out.  Jonathan Papelbon is half human, half machine.  They have it all.  The Angels counter with less thunder, but guys like Kendry Morales (.306), Erick Aybar (.312) and Maicer Izturis (.300) have been pleasant surprises.  This is as good a year as any for the Angels to break this Red Sox curse, but it won’t happen.  Boston’s pitching is too overwhelming, especially in a short series.
- Red Sox in four

Yankees vs Twins – The Twns are on a roller coaster ride that just won’t stop.  They’ve won 17 of 21 including the dramatic one game playoff to get here.  Their reward?  C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees, returning to the playoffs after a one year absence.  The Yankee pitching worries me, but if C.C. goes twice, the Twins won’t be able to match up.  What’s worse is that Minnesota had to spend all of their starters trying to win the division, so they won’t get Nick Blackburn until game two and Carl Pavano until game three.  No one outside of Sabathia has an ERA until four for the Yanks, but they’ll be able to ride their offense to a series win against mediocre Twins pitching.
- Yankees in four

NLCS

Dodgers vs Phillies - The Phillies got a very good draw by facing the only team in the NL they have a chance of beating (Colorado).  In the NLCS, they won’t have a chance.  The Dodger rotation is too deep, and the Phillies rotation has been too inconsistent.  Randy Wolf is pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now, and has the ERA down to 3.23.  If Clayton Kershaw got any kind of run support, he’d be a Cy Young candidate.  And we all know how good Chad Billingsley can be, despite late season struggles.  Don’t sleep on Vicente Padilla either.  He is 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 39.1 innings since coming over from Texas.  Offensively, the Phillies will lose the home run pop when the weather gets cold in Pennsylvania.  They can’t manufacture runs or hit with runners in scoring position.  I’m being nice by giving them two wins in this series.
- Dodgers in six

ALCS

Yankees vs Red Sox – Here we go again.  Another ALCS clash between these two titans in the east.  The Red Sox dominated the Yanks in the first half, and the Yankees dominated after the break.  Both teams should win their first round matchups easily, giving them time to set their rotations for this one.  Both teams can hit, but this series comes down to pitching.  Put Beckett (3.86 ERA, 199 Ks), Lester (3.41 ERA, 225 Ks) and Clay Buchholz (4.21 ERA, 68 Ks in 16 starts) up against the Yankee staff and it’s not even close.  Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlin together are just .500 since August.  If this were a five game series, the Yankees may have a chance.  But playing seven games with no pitching, and it is going to be ugly.  I’ll give them two wins because of the offense and C.C.
- Red Sox in six

World Series

Red Sox vs Dodgers – A trade that worked out for both teams will be the most talked about storyline in this World Series.  Okay, let’s be honest…nobody will be talking about Jason Bay.  It’s all about Manny vs his former team here, and you can bet the boo birds will be out in game one.  And two.  And six and seven.  That’s right.  This series is going seven.  The Dodgers have enough solid pitching to compete with Boston, especially if they can split the first two at Fenway.  The Boston lineup will look a lot weaker in the power department without Ortiz once the series shifts, which means advantage L.A. in a big ballpark.  Everything in the postseason comes down to pitching.  All logic says go with the Red Sox, but the Dodgers have pitched well all year, and Joe Torre will beat the Red Sox again.
- Dodgers in seven