With only a few games remaining until postseason play, it seems we know all of the teams who will be playing in October. The talk in mid-Missouri seems to be all about whether the Cardinals can knock off the Phillies and get to the World Series. Well I have news for you, Cards fans. Forget the Phillies. You’ll likely get your toughest postseason test in the first round when you face the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are the team nobody is talking about. They are also the team nobody should want tom play.
They have a lineup built for postseason baseball. They can get for average (first in NL), steal bases (fourth in NL), and lay down bunts. They have struck out 92 fewer times than the Phillies, are six points better with runners in scoring position, and are 14 points better with RISP and two outs. Eight players are hitting .280 or better. The Phillies have just two players accomplishing that feat. So the Phillies can hit home runs. Big deal. Home runs don’t win in October. Home runs won’t win in spacious Dodger Stadium, or in cold weather venues like Colorado, St. Louis and Philadelphia.
Can we talk about pitching? Guess who leads all of baseball in ERA? Yep, it’s the Dodgers – a sparkling 3.42. The Phillies? 4.14. Dodger pitchers has struck out over 100 more batters than Phillies pitchers. Four of their five starters have ERAs under 4 (Chad Billingsley is 4.03). Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer both have ERAs over 4.25.
In the bullpen, Jonathan Broxton has blown just six saves in 42 chances and has a 2.68 ERA with 111 strikeouts in 74 innings. Brad Lidge was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and a 7.38 ERA before losing the closer role to Ryan Madson. Madson’s ERA is 3.18 – not bad But he, like Broxton, has blown six saves, and he’s only had 16 opportunities.
If the Cardinals face the Dodgers in the first round, it would be a shame. They are the two best teams in the NL, and I like the winner to win the league, maybe the World Series.
So Cards fan, and Rockies fans – fear the Dodgers, not the Phillies.
I fear the Phillies for their offense and starting pitching (which you failed to mention). Who is starting Game 1 for the Dodgers…Randy Wolf? Game 2…Is it gonna be the oft injured Clayton Kershaw, the very inconsistent Chad Billingsley, or Vicente Padilla? If it is gonna be Carpenter vs Wolf and Wainwright vs Billingsley, there’s no reason why the Cards shouldn’t at least split in LA. Then, they have to beat Carp and Wainwright again. I know the ’06 Cards won the World Series and anything can happen but the Dodgers big three don’t match up with the Cardinals big three or the Phillies big three. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and J.A. Happ/Pedro Martinez/Joe Blanton (take your pick) are downright scary. Their bullpen sucks ass. Jaryd, you and I both know that starting pitching is all that matters in postseason (look at the 2005 White Sox). I would not be surprised if we got swept by LA. It’s baseball. I just think the Phillies are better.
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back Fear the Dodgers, Not the Phillies…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back Fear the Dodgers, Not the Phillies…
I agree with Kyle. The Dodgers pitching advantage comes from depth. 1 through 5 they can beat you. But in the playoffs all you need is two horses to win a World Series (see Arizona, 2001).
I think the Cardinals biggest hurdle may just be Colorado. They’ve got an ace in Jimenez that they can match up with anybody, probably the best bullpen in the National League playoffs and a very good defense, the three things you need in the playoffs. All of the other NL teams have a question area in one of those three.
The playoffs are undoubtedly nothing more than a crapshoot as anyone can get hot for a few weeks (2006 Cardinals, 2007 Rockies) but the Dodgers are probably the team I’m least worried about in the NL playoffs. Not every NL team gets to fatten up their pitching stats by throwing about half their innings against the crappy NL West offenses.
To both of you: if you say the Dodger ‘pen sucks, then the Phillies don’t even have one to speak of.
To Kyle: I agree that the Cards will split in LA…but after that it’s advantage Dodgers. The Dodgers have 5 starters better than Pineiro – they win game 3. If LaRussa is stupid enough to pitch Carp on short rest, the Dodgers win the series in 4. Carp is 34 and has been injured more than anyone the past three years. If LaRussa decides to go Smoltz or Lohse…the Dodgers still win in 4. Either way, I don’t like the matchup for the Cards.
To Nate: I like your Rockies theory, but again I think the Dodgers have better pitching, especially #3 and #4. Yes, Arizona won on the shoulders of two aces, but how many times has that been done? Once? Twice? It’s a rarity. And if you’re talking about strength of schedule…get your facts straight. The NL West is 46 games better than the NL East.
To both of you: Thanks for reading.
What many people fail to realize is that Miguel Batista had an ERA in the 2′s that postseason as well. You can look it up. They had a three man staff even though the two stars Johnson and Schilling were much better. I don’t think that the Dodgers bullpen is bad. I think that the rotation has to minimize their work and they’ll be fine. Also, the way the Rockies are playing they could sweep the Dodgers this weekend and get a few bounces and get the best record in the NL. We should have a match up talk when we figure out who’s playing who. We all know that these four teams are playing for the right to get swept by the Yankees, right Nate?